Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues The Trump Administration Post-Election Mischief

We'll see what happens in 2022. Biden may end up being so popular for presiding over a booming economy and not killing a quarter million Americans, that Democrats actually win control of congress.

Possible, but it would be going against history.

First midterm house losses

Trump lost 41seats in 2018 Lost control of the house.
Obama lost 63 seats in 2010 lost control of the house
**Bush gained 8 seats in 2002
Clinton lost 54 seats in 1994 lost control of the house
Bush lost 8 seats in 1990
Reagan lost 26 seats in 1982
Carter lost 15 seats in 1978
Nixon lost 12 seats in 1970
*LBJ lost 47 seats in 1966
JFK lost 4 seats in 1962
Eisenhower lost 18 seats in 1954 lost control of the house
Truman lost 28 seats in 1950
FDR gained 11 seats in 1934

*LBJ lost 47 seats in 1966, but he could afford the big loss. His majority fell from 295 down to 248. From a 155-seat majority down to a 61 seat majority.

**G.W. Bush in his second midterm, lost 33 seats in 2006 and lost control of the house.

Democrats from Truman until Bill Clinton had control of the house and at times over a 100 seat majority. So those president's loses in the house didn't result in loss of control. In those years from 1933-94 the Democrats at times had an 80-100 seat majority and in a few years well over a 100 seat majority as was the case with LBJ in 1964. From 1933-1994 the Democrats had control of the house for 58 of 62 years. At one point, they controlled the house for 40 straight years.

During that 62 year time span, 11 times the Democrats had over 60 senators including on year with a 75-17 majority and five more with 67, 68, 69 senators.

As for 2022, we'll see. If not for 9-11, every president would have had first midterm loses in the house. Having the Democrats majority cut from 37 from the results of the 2018 election down to 13 at the moment with 4 seats still to be decided isn't a good sign or omen for the first Biden midterm.

But then again, have no, zero, nadda, none coat tails may aid the democrats. They won't have any vulnerable seats up that were the results of Biden's popularity that revert to their natural political roots in the first midterm. Depending or not whether Biden and the Democratic congress does something to make independents angry at them, the odds are because of the above only a handful of seats will change hands. My two cents anyway.

Charisma is a strong force...

Yeah, I get what your saying. I've some experience in past careers of advertising and film making. Industries laser concerned with character development and strong story telling. It's still a major U.S. export. Not blind to it. Just disagreeing to what extent it's role is playing in the minds of voters.

I think you risk glossing over important evidence and details by using such a broad and nebulous basket as 'Charisma' to dump voter motivation into.

Paul Jay had guest speaker Tom Ferguson from U Mass on to break down the numbers and do some entrail reading. A grinder for sure and I appreciate his moss back charisma in discussing his insights into the election numbers:

Economics Not Culture Wars Drove Most Trump Voters – Thomas Ferguson

I liked that he brought attention to the Latino details that seem to be missing from MSN. How did so many from Latino communities go strong with Sanders in the primary and then broke for Trump in significant numbers in the general..

It's a shame so many went hard for Russian rabbit holes instead of thinking about these issues Ferguson raises. On, the other hand, it did the job it was intended to do for a certain segment, IMO.

I have always been dubious about these kinds of stats. I think it is equivalent to saying the last coin toss was heads therefore the next one has a greater chance of being heads.

For those kinds of stats to be meaningful, the context of each year would have to possess some form of equivalency, otherwise it is anecdotal.

Here is an example which I think everyone would agree is not well founded .... Mr Trump says he got 11M more votes this time than in 2016 => he actually won the election in 2020

More augurie as it relates to class, income and edjumication. Some in opposition to Ferguson's observations:

"OK, this may come as a surprise. Trump’s vote share increased between 2016 and 2020 in 2,252 or 72.4 percent of the 3,110 US counties for which we have data. On average, he gained 1.41 percent in vote share by county. Weighted by population, of course, he lost 0.97 percent on average. But still, incredibly, there was a swing towards the GOP in nearly three-quarters of US counties. "

Class-Partisan Polarization Intensified in the 2020 Cycle

It's all still early and there's more spilling of guts to be done.

As they say in the investment community, past performance is no indicator of future performance. Previous administrations were nothing like Trump's. So a Biden administration that simply returns America to normalcy could be extremely popular, for independents and even for many conservative Republicans. Conservatives want this kind of normalcy, and Trump's term was anything but "normal".

In fact, if you compare the past 40 years of presidential terms to Trump's, Democratic and Republican administrations were much more alike than Trump's administration.

I see a three-judge panel of the Third Circuit reamed Giuliani et all a new a**hole today on their Pennsylvania appeal: Two of these judges are Bush appointees and the third judge writing the opinion is actually a Trump appointee. They all voted to turn down the appeal, saying it was ridiculous, lacked evidence, and asked for a solution that would invalidate all of the state's election results (like for congress and local offices) because Republican districts decided not to let mail-in voters fix their defective ballots. Sort of like murdering your parents and then begging for mercy in court because you are an orphan.


This validates something I have been posting about for a while now, and that is Trump keeps on appointing Federalist Society-recommended judges who are conservative. But that doesn't mean they will ignore the law to find for Trump. They believe in a strict application of the law and precedent, and their lives are heavily invested in the judicial system. Not a good strategy for a criminal President!

The obvious and definitive response from the Trump Coup Camp would be these judges are a part of the deep state judicial system of activism, so therefore their opinion is irrelevant.

Giuliani is intent on taking the case to the Supremes. There he believes they will overturn or invalidate or abrogate state courts and allow Republican battleground state legislatures to appoint a Trump slate of electors. Not only that but he also believes when the joint session of Congress is called they will not count any battleground slate of electors appointed by the Gov's but will instead count the battleground state legislatures Trump slate of electors, thus overturning the will of the people. There are campaigns at both the state level and in Congress to achieve this goal.

When humans are involved there is always the possibility of irrational thinking and acting.

The Trump campaign spent three million dollars on a partial recount in Wisconsin. They are still counting in Madison, but Milwaukee finished: Biden gained a net of 132 votes.

Trump keeps on losing.