Interesting thought on the comfort zone. At least with independents, I think more can leave that comfort zone than is replaced. That could be the big reason independents at times are all over the place. Here's my take on the most recent elections involving independents.
2006 independents voted Democratic by a margin of 57-39 over Republicans with 4% voting third party. I think independents became fed up with Republican rule and the wars..
2008 independents voted for Obama by a 52-44 margin over McCain.Independents voted 52-45 for Democratic congressional candidates. Throw in the recession to go with the two reason for 2006.
2010 independents voted 56-37 Republican over Democrat with 7% voting third party. This one I would say took independents out of their comfort zone. Most were happy and well satisfied with the health insurance they had. Now they looked at the unknown future, the unknown as to how the ACA would effect their insurance. Interesting to note just four years ago independents went Democratic by 18 point, this year Republican by 19, a swing of 37 points. That's is quite drastic.
2012 independents voted for Romney by a 51-48 margin, close to a wash. Independents voted 50-49 for Republican congressional candidates. Basically a status quo election. Let things continue as they have for the last two years.
2014 independents voted 54-42 for Republican congressional candidates. The GOP also won back control of the senate this year. From a plus one from independents 2 years ago to a plus 12 this year. Most still uncertain and worried about the ACA. Out of their comfort zone.
2016 Independents voted for Trump 46-42 with 12% voting third party. In congressional election independents voted Republican 51-47. I'd say most independents didn't know which way to go in either the presidential and congressional. A Gallup poll showed 54% of all independent disliked and didn't want neither Clinton nor Trump to become their next president.
https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx2018 Independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 54-42 margin with 4% voting third party. Independents very uncomfortable with Trump, he took them totally out of their comfort zone.A swing of plus 4 for the GOP in 2016 congressional races to a minus 12. A swing of 16 points.
2020 Independents voted for Biden 54-41 with 5% voting third party. In Congressional elections independents voted Democratic 50-48. This I really don't know how to take. How can independents give Biden a 13 point win other than being totally anti Trump. Then give the Democratic congressional candidates just a 2 point margin. Many ticket splitters voting against Trump, then Republican down ballot. This is probably the most interesting and for me, the most unexplainable stat of this whole thing.
I think the down ballot results among independents showed they weren't happy with either congressional delegation. That presidential wise, they wanted Trump gone, but didn't really want the Democrats in full charge. I could and probably am reading too much into this. But I'd say, 2020 provided no mandate, nor endorsement nor rejection of either party's ideals and agenda, etc.
Maybe they're like me, I wanted Trump gone and for the time being, I happy and totally satisfied with that. Now what the future holds, time will tell. I may become unhappy and dissatisfied or I might continue to enjoy the Biden presidency.
