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And that is the very trend I told you was underway. It's beginning to show up in the polls.

I expect that very same trend to hold pretty steady into the midterms.

Joe Manchin is holding the Biden agenda hostage, but in the long run I think it will prove to be worth it. Fewer voters will be bumped out of their comfort zones in either direction. Less turmoil and less chance for the MAGAverse to have any impact in 2022.

The Game of Seats is playing out nicely at present for the Democrats but who knows what the future holds....

Exactly. That how I see it also. Manchin may be actually helping the Democrats to remain in control.Going slow and steady has the advantage of accomplishing one agenda over the long haul. Trying to get everything done the first year tends to take folks out of their comfort zone. Little steps toward the goal keeps the people behind you. Taking gigantic leaps usually leads to confusion, perhaps turmoil and a lot of misunderstanding which lead to the loss of one's comfort zone.

An interesting aside, Trafalgar published its first poll on our 2022 senate race. Walker leads Warnock, but Warnock leads both Collins and Loefler. Collins and Loefler are Trumpers, Walker, is Herschel Walker the former football player.

Don 't overlook the effect prosecution could have on congress members like Green, Loeffler, Hawley, and Cruz: It doesn't matter how popular their actions are with their constituents back home. When you go to Washington DC and commit crimes, you are subject to federal prosecution, grand juries drawn from the very Democratic DC population, and local criminal trial juries. People back in Georgia or Florida can howl all they want: If you are convicted of giving aid or comfort to insurrectionists, you are banned from ever holding office again, if not sent to prison.

Same thing for Representative Sex Trafficker: Federal Grand Jury, Federal prosecutor. Federal jury, Federal prison. 17 year old sex partners may be fine in Florida, but that's not the charges that will be filed.

I haven't seen or heard of any prosecution going forward on those mentioned. That doesn't mean it isn't so, Loeffler to out of politics and if the Georgia polls are correct, she's bound to stay that way. She was a Governor appointee to the senate, she didn't win her seat in an election.

Green, Hawley, Cruz, who knows if there are behind the scenes investigations going on. Green won her district here in Georgia 230,000 to 78,000 votes over the Democrat. She's from a safe GOP district which most Republicans congressional critters are due to the court ordered majority minority districts which place most of Georgia's black population into 5 congressional districts. We have only one really competitive district, CD-7 which switch from GOP to Democratic by less than 10,000 vote, 180,000 to 172,000. This isn't about to change even with redistricting to the the court ordered majority minority districts. There's usually 3 or 4 districts where there is no challenger from the opposing party due to the results known way before hand.

There's probably no way the democrats get more than 6 of Georgia's 14 congressional delegation as long as it is court mandated to place as many blacks into majority minority districts. Georgia has a 35% black population, that is the exact percentage of black representatives Georgia sends to D.C. Of the remaining mostly white districts, Republicans won 7 of 8 with only 1 not being safe Republican which the democrats ekked out a win last year.

I suppose the bottom line is here in Georgia, we're not going to have more than a couple of competitive districts due to the requirement of majority minority districts which throws most Democratic voters into their districts while leaving the rest with most Republican voters. Since this is court ordered, I don't see it changing with reapportionment and the drawing of new district lines. Here in Georgia, the court must approve the newly drawn districts.

I don't imagine there will be any meaningful prosecutions. Mostly because no actual crimes were committed and those are often required before prosecution begins. No one has been charged with any crimes except by a hyperbolic media.

For the most part, Biden will remain popular and could probably win re-election if he wasn't so damned OLD.

That may or may not translate into Democrats keeping the Senate in 2022, and it may or may not mean Harris can be elected in 2024.

If nuthin' don't happen, 2022 is looking like it might not be a disaster for Democrats. I'm pretty sure they'll keep the house. The senate is anybody's game, and Pero will know before the rest of us because he keeps up with the individual races.

MAGA players are hoping for a resurgence of some sort in the future, I don't see it happening in the midterms and I don't see Trump coming back. That might work in the Democrats favor if MAGA nutcase candidates win primaries and get on the ballot against moderate democrats.

...in the fullness of time.

I totally agree Greger. Trump backed candidates may rule the primaries for 2022, but winning in the general election is a total different thing. Independents still haven't changed their minds on how they view Trump. They don't like him and his backed MAGA candidates probably won't do so good. Of course that will all depend on how the new districts are drawn. In safe or likely Republican districts, they'll win. But in competitive districts, it's doubtful in my book. Now this is today and not Nov 2022.

Now I don't have to wait to get the latest scoop on the senate since reapportionment doesn't effect them. 14 Democrats and 20 Republicans are up for reelection in 2022, numbers favor the Democrats. There seems to be just a few competitive races as of today. Georgia if Walker is the nominee could go Republican, Sununu is leading Hassan in the latest NH poll, Two possible GOP pickups. On the other side of the coin, Democrats could pick up North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The rest look fairly safe. Burr is retiring in NC and Toomey retiring in Pennsylvania. Only 5 contests out of the 34 could switch as things stand today. Way too early for any predictions that mean anything. But I'd keep an eye on those 5 states. That is where changes could and probably will occur.

Dammit...here we are in agreement again when we're supposed to be having a heated debate....

LOL, When I assess election prospects, I try to do so with clear eyes and an open mind which let numbers, figures do the talking. Looking at election prospects through partisans lens, clouds one's view and mind of what may be really going on.

Even so, all it takes is for one unforeseen event to upset the whole apple cart. I think Trump losing in 2020 was foreseen right after he was elected in 2016 if the Democrats didn't nominate another Hillary Clinton. what was unforeseen was the down ballot gains by the GOP. I'm still trying to figure out how and why there were so many ticket splitters voting for Biden and then Republican down ballot. That usually doesn't happen, it's not normal, What happened hasn't happened in 134 years.

The only thing I can come up with is some Republicans and independent Republican leaners disliked Trump so much they voted for Biden, but stayed loyal to their party's candidates down ballot. If you have a better take, please let me hear it.

That's exactly what happened. Trump was universally hated.

Socialist democrats in congress are also universally hated.

Republicans thought they had this...they were as certain of victory are Democrats were in 2016.

The dynamics of the whole thing are weird and fluky, I suggest we strike the entire Trump phenomenon from the records.

What is this? A love fest? Yeah, I agree that socialist Democrats in congress are equally as hated as Trump was by the majority of Americans as are the congressional leaders of both parties. The exception might be Sanders.

Favorable ratings as of 6 Apr 2021
Biden 51/44 favorable/unfavorable
Pelosi 38/52 favorable/unfavorable
McConnell 19/64 favorable/unfavorable
Schumer 34/55 favorable/unfavorable
Trump 38/56 favorable/unfavorable

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/4243y0nkbo/econTabReport.pdf

Out of that group, Biden is the only one in the positive nationwide. The rest although viewed nationwide as negative, that doesn't make any difference as it is in their own district or state that counts on how they're viewed. Sanders and the socialist Democrats weren't listed in this most recent poll.

Sanders was in the 9 Mar poll along with AOC

Sanders 46/43 favorable/unfavorable
AOC 36/41 favorable/unfavorable

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/pzzc3d0izz/econTabReport.pdf

What I've noticed is when the social democrats like AOC, Omar stay quiet and out of the news their favorable's rise and their unfavorable's shrink. The same can be said about these ultra conservatives like Cruz. He isn't liked by America as a whole either.

Cruz 34/50 favorable/unfavorable.

Another one in the America as a whole really doesn't like in the McConnell range is Cuomo, 20/60 favorable unfavorable. But with both Cruz and Cuomo, it isn't how they're liked/disliked by America as a whole, it's only what the folks in their state think about them that's important. Only they can reelected them or send them packing.

I also think it's interesting that Biden has stayed out of the news, lacked media attention and his approval rating remains very high, positive. 55.2 approve, 39.6 disapprove.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

Trump on the other hand was in the news and garnered media attention everyday of his presidency and he stayed around 40/55 approval/disapproval for his entire presidency. There seems to be a correlation with the amount of media attention is given one or the lack of in their favorable/unfavorable ratings.