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Speculation welcomed. Since FDR only G.W. Bush in 2002 gained house seats in their first midterm. Every other president lost seats. G.W. Bush had 9-11 happen during his first term which united the country behind him and the Republican Party. If no 9-11, I'm positive he too would have lost seats.

First midterm house losses

Trump lost 43 seats in 2018 Lost control of the house.
Obama lost 63 seats in 2010 lost control of the house
**Bush gained 8 seats in 2002
Clinton lost 54 seats in 1994 lost control of the house
Bush lost 8 seats in 1990
Reagan lost 26 seats in 1982
Carter lost 15 seats in 1978
Nixon lost 12 seats in 1970
*LBJ lost 47 seats in 1966
JFK lost 4 seats in 1962
Eisenhower lost 18 seats in 1954 lost control of the house
Truman lost 28 seats in 1950
FDR gained 11 seats in 1934

*LBJ lost 47 seats in 1966, but he could afford the big loss. His majority fell from 295 down to 248. From a 155-seat majority down to a 61 seat majority.

**G.W. Bush lost 33 seats in 2006 and lost control of the house.

I have no doubt that if the midterm was held today, the Democrats would gain seats, perhaps in double digits in the house and a couple of more senate seats. But the midterm is 18 months away with reapportionment and the drawings of new district lines.

A lot of unforeseen events and happenings can happen between now and then. So, no predictions from me this far out.

Speaking of the Republicans being between a rock and a hard place when it comes to Trump and his followers and attracting or having a candidate win in the GOP primary that has a chance of winning in the general. Here's how the Virginia GOP are facing that problem.

"Can it retain voters drawn to the party because of former President Donald Trump and his style of politics, but at the same time push, nudge or maneuver Trump-like candidates like Chase — who are likely to lose winnable elections — out of the way?"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/were-abo...est-in-the-post-trump-era-090007893.html

I'm gonna miss these discussions, Pero.

You seem to see the big picture much like I do.

This is weird, the new site. It took me two days to find out if anyone replied to my post. Before I could just click on my posts and see who responded and respond myself.

That said, why are you going to miss our discussions? You do seem to me to understand the big picture also and to acknowledge reasons behind election losses without providing a ton of partisan excuses. being a non-partisan myself, I really like that.

I'm still not sure you understand how taking folks out of their comfort zone can cause an election loss ALA 2010 with the ACA and Trump's obnoxious personality in 2018 and 2020. People, at least independents were totally uncomfortable with Trump's persona and unpresidential behavior. Not so much his policies as independents were for some and against others with a whole lot of indifference to the rest.

Once reapportionment occurs and redistricting along with it, I'll have quite a lot to say about the 2022 midterms. Until then, I'm sitting and watching. Keeping the pulse of the independent voter which according to Gallup now makes up 41% of the electorate. Of course you have the leans, but 11% of the electorate with no leans must be a record high.

I thought the board was shutting down.

My theory on voter comfort zones is that when one voter is nudged out of his comfort zone another takes his place. It's a constant ebb and flow.

Unless both sides and the mushy middle are against something...
Like the ACA
Righties thought it went too far, lefties thought it didn't go far enough
As always, the middle was evenly split....

Now that Republicans have had their little temper tantrum Dems are back in power and can advance healthcare again...among other things.

Interesting thought on the comfort zone. At least with independents, I think more can leave that comfort zone than is replaced. That could be the big reason independents at times are all over the place. Here's my take on the most recent elections involving independents.

2006 independents voted Democratic by a margin of 57-39 over Republicans with 4% voting third party. I think independents became fed up with Republican rule and the wars..

2008 independents voted for Obama by a 52-44 margin over McCain.Independents voted 52-45 for Democratic congressional candidates. Throw in the recession to go with the two reason for 2006.

2010 independents voted 56-37 Republican over Democrat with 7% voting third party. This one I would say took independents out of their comfort zone. Most were happy and well satisfied with the health insurance they had. Now they looked at the unknown future, the unknown as to how the ACA would effect their insurance. Interesting to note just four years ago independents went Democratic by 18 point, this year Republican by 19, a swing of 37 points. That's is quite drastic.


2012 independents voted for Romney by a 51-48 margin, close to a wash. Independents voted 50-49 for Republican congressional candidates. Basically a status quo election. Let things continue as they have for the last two years.

2014 independents voted 54-42 for Republican congressional candidates. The GOP also won back control of the senate this year. From a plus one from independents 2 years ago to a plus 12 this year. Most still uncertain and worried about the ACA. Out of their comfort zone.

2016 Independents voted for Trump 46-42 with 12% voting third party. In congressional election independents voted Republican 51-47. I'd say most independents didn't know which way to go in either the presidential and congressional. A Gallup poll showed 54% of all independent disliked and didn't want neither Clinton nor Trump to become their next president.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

2018 Independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 54-42 margin with 4% voting third party. Independents very uncomfortable with Trump, he took them totally out of their comfort zone.A swing of plus 4 for the GOP in 2016 congressional races to a minus 12. A swing of 16 points.

2020 Independents voted for Biden 54-41 with 5% voting third party. In Congressional elections independents voted Democratic 50-48. This I really don't know how to take. How can independents give Biden a 13 point win other than being totally anti Trump. Then give the Democratic congressional candidates just a 2 point margin. Many ticket splitters voting against Trump, then Republican down ballot. This is probably the most interesting and for me, the most unexplainable stat of this whole thing.

I think the down ballot results among independents showed they weren't happy with either congressional delegation. That presidential wise, they wanted Trump gone, but didn't really want the Democrats in full charge. I could and probably am reading too much into this. But I'd say, 2020 provided no mandate, nor endorsement nor rejection of either party's ideals and agenda, etc.

Maybe they're like me, I wanted Trump gone and for the time being, I happy and totally satisfied with that. Now what the future holds, time will tell. I may become unhappy and dissatisfied or I might continue to enjoy the Biden presidency.

This last election was easy to explain...voters hated Trump, they didn't hate their local Senator, so mostly they re-elected them.

When a moderate right leaner(like yourself) gets bumped from his comfort zone there is normally a moderate left leaning individual who suddenly finds himself MORE comfortable. It ebbs and flows.

Hot button issues are used by the propogandists to jostle people around within their comfort zones...

That sounds good. But there are more times when one enters their comfort zone than leaves hence the difference in how independents vote. This year many more were uncomfortable with Trump than Biden thus giving Biden a 13 point advantage. The same for 2018 when the Democratic congressional candidates rang up a 12 point advantage among independents.

2016 quite a lot of independents, 54% if Gallup is to be believed were uncomfortable with both presidential candidates. This resulted in 12% voting third party against both along with giving Trump a four point advantage.

We've seen these huge swings before, the Democrats having a big 18 point advantage in 2006 only to swing to the Republicans gaining a 19 point advantage among these same voters in 2010..

So the one for one equation really doesn't work. One leaving and one entering. Here the latest party affiliation from Gallup.

Quarterly Gap in Party Affiliation Largest Since 2012

https://news.gallup.com/poll/343976...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

And the parties and propogandists want to keep it that way. They do everything in their power to keep the nation evenly divided.

Most of us just float along in our comfort zones voting for the party that most closely matches our inherent ideological lean.

The 2016 election was a fluke. I've said it many times. Any polls related to that election are flawed. Hillary Clinton was not a flawed candidate. She would have been an excellent president, very much like Biden.

She won the election by 3 Million Votes! How the hell can you call that flawed?


Just like you...she believed the polls...just like all of us...the win was assured. It was quite a shock to all of us. Because it was a fecking FLUKE!

2010, which is easy to blame on the ACA, was nothing more than a racist uprising against a Black president. The ACA just happened to get caught up in the middle of it. Polls around that one are skewed too. That was the TEA Party uprising. Exactly the same woodwork dwellers who make up the MAGAverse.

Most polls are skewed, for one reason or another.....

What I try to look for is the trends in public opinion that skew the polls, which are also the trends that drive elections. Spot the trends and you know how the polls will turn out before they are taken.

Propagandist or whatever, we're not evenly divided anymore. The Democratic Party is slowly pulling ahead much like it was from JFK until Reagan. Roughly 45-25 advantage for the Democrats. That advantage was inflated mainly due to the solid Democratic South which was beginning to become Republican during Reagan and became Republican for the most part after Reagan.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/interactives/party-id-trend/

This helped the Democrats retain control of the House for 40 straight years and 58 of 62 going back to FDR and ending in 1994. Reagan brought a 20 point deficit to the Democrats down to 5 points where it has basically stayed within a point or two up or down until this year. Now Gallup gives the Democrats an 9 point advantage,

One can thank Trump for the gain. I would say what we're seeing is some Republicans becoming independents while some independents are moving to the Democratic Party.

Trends are the way to look at all of this involving polls. The Democratic Party has moved from a 3 point advantage in Nov 2020 to 9 points today and that seems to be increasing slowly. Regardless, the bottom line is the Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties and has been since FDR. They must win the independent vote or lose the election. Trump is certainly driving independents away from the GOP, independents lean Republican I mean.

The GOP base is down to 25% of the total electorate, 40% counting the base and independents lean Republican. The Democratic base has risen but a single point since Nov 2020 to 32% today, but counting independents lean Democratic, they're up to 49% of the electorate. Now that is what I'd call a positive trend for the Democrats.