Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General National Commission to Investigate the January 6

Actually, I suspect the number of swing voters among independents is probably quite low. You've told me they never research anything and just go with whatever they see on TV.

Not what I'd consider a rational group at all and I'd mostly avoid them. Independents to me are people like Bernie Sanders and myself.

I dunno know. see below


Looks like we have a lot of political delusions being passed around.

I think the phrase in general applies. Like the old saying, you always going to have your 10%.

I don't think that reaching out to Trumpites makes any sense at all. I also suspect that there are some that are not Trumpites but fear his wrath because they would lose their jobs. I guess those that are not have already left but not before they built a huge pile of money to run again (then changed their minds are are stuck with the money - surprise!)

Last night I heard a guy talk about how the Republicans swept the Hispanics in southern Texas. The Democratic candidates were against all the jobs that they had and they didn't like that! What was really being said is that the Democratic candidates, in southern Texas were absolutely clueless about the Hispanic majority of voters in
Southern Texas. That is, I suspect, a little problem. Many Dems are so busy talking to each other that they don't take time out to learn just who, exactly, might vote for them if they control their mouths.

I know, not likely!

I was talking swing voters, the non-affiliated which a good many had been Democrats at one time. But because of an issue or two, they felt like outcasts, rejects. I already said reaching out to the right wing and Republicans was a total waste of time. That waste of time includes Trumpers.

Now I would assume many of those who deserted the Democratic Party are now independents lean Democrat. But there a big difference in how they vote. History shows that those who identify, affiliate themselves with the Democratic Party will vote for democratic party's candidates 92% of the time. Independent democratic leaners drop to roughly 70% of the time. The same percentages apply to Republicans.

So feeling part of a political party can make a difference in an elections outcome depending which election that 30% of democratic leaners decide to vote for the opposing party's candidates. Of course they all won't do it in the same election, some will this election, others the next and other the next election after that. But 30% is the average for any one election.

Swing voters are very susceptible to what they hear and are very likely to run with it if it sound plausible. Nothing way out there, but something with a grain of truth. They aren't political junkies like us here. They don't pay much if any attention to politics for the most part. They'll hear someone saying something, they'll liable to believe whichever party that someone belongs to, their party believes exactly what that someone said.

They're impressionable, susceptible to political propaganda if it fits into what they heard someone say. This is where a coherent message, having everyone on the same page comes in. This is where a Greene, AOC, Omar can be very dangerous to their party's election chances. Keep in mind, swing voters, the non-affiliated aren't ideologues, they don't care about most issues, only those which effect them or may effect them in the future. Most don't care what happens in other places or to other people as long as it doesn't happen where they live and to them.

We're arguing semantics here, but you struck on some common ground.

They don't always vote....you and me, we always vote.

Sometimes they sit on the couch. 40% of eligible voters sit on the couch in every election. To the politically ignorant, one party is the same as the other...so registration will likely be whatever their parents were registered as. It means nothing to me because it means nothing to them.

It's a vast pool of uninterested voters. Sometimes something catches their fancy and gets them off the couch.

It bothers me when it's lies that's getting them off the couch.

Yeah, in an average presidential election 45% of the eligible to vote population don't vote. 2020 was unique in its high turnout. Midterms are much worse which runs roughly 60% don't bother to vote. Then in those weird election years when it's neither a presidential or midterm year, just state and local, you get turnout of in the 20's to 30's. That is unless there's a hot governors race.

We agree Trump was the motivating factor that got a lot of normally non-voters off the couch in 2020. So the next question is without Trump on the ballot for 2022 midterms, will that midterm return to the normal 40% or so who vote? From the indications I've seen, the answer is probably. That means 60% won't bother.

What we need is to get back to when election campaigns are all about substance. These days election campaigns are almost 100% negative with very little substance, ideas, possible solutions to our problems, visions of the future etc. It's always my opponent is the worst scumbag on earth. Try sitting through over a billion dollars of negative advertisements for a month for the January senate runoffs. None of the four candidates ever said what they were for, just my opponent is the worst person on earth.

This is how these coach potatoes, the uninformed, the non-affiliated, independents who don't pay attention to politics much are deciding who they'll vote for.

You have Republicans voting for Republicans, Democrats for Democrats and the rest trying to decide who's the least worst scumbag. Usually ending up voting for who they least want to lose, not win, but least want to lose.

Most of these latter folks will tell you they decided on the issues who to vote for. But most couldn't tell you which candidate was for what and against what.

So I shouldn't have pointed out the worst scumbag on earth in the 2016 election was elected and that should not have been mentioned in 2020? That same worst scumbag on earth whined the election was rigged in 2020 and that is not worth mentioning.

I mean the job is all about character, and when your opponent has no character ... has no integrity .... has no visible redeeming qualities, you think that should not be mentioned in passing???

But then ... his supporters don't care if he is the worst scumbag on earth and was willing to sell America to the low bidder. I think it says far more about the substance of Americans than any passing comment about scumbags.

I think we are frakked and Republicans can't hurry fast enough to regain power so they can complete the job of destroying America.

That's the problem, both parties think the other is out to destroy America. Each party thinks the other party is this nation's worst enemy, it's number one enemy.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...voters_see_each_other_as_america_s_enemy

I chalk that up to today's modern political era we've entered into. The polarization, the great divide, the mega, ultra high partisanship.

As for 2016, it was an election between two unwanted candidates.

One in Four Americans Dislike Both Presidential Candidates

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

25% of the nation which included 54% of independents didn't want neither one to become their next president. Only Republicans liked and wanted Trump, only Democrats liked and wanted Hillary Clinton. Looking at the final vote totals from both parties, there must have been a lot within each who disliked and didn't want even their own candidate. Only 88% of Republicans voted for Trump, 89% of democrats voted for Hillary. That's below the national average for party members voting for their own candidate. Put it in perspective 94% of both Republicans and Democrats voted for their candidate in 2020, 93% of Republicans and 92% of Democrats voted for their candidates in 2012.

I term 2016 as an election of obnoxious, rude, uncouth vs. aloof, elitist, know it all. Obnoxious, rude, uncouth won by a quirk of the electoral college. 2020, it was obnoxious, rude, uncouth vs. bland, old, uninspiring, but behaved like an adult, in 2020, the adult won.

Like it or not, for quite a lot of folks, elections are beauty contests. These last two elections were strictly personality based. Strange as it seems, policy, stances on issues, independents were fairly split on those with Trump, for some, against some, indifferent to others. But when it came to like or dislike as a person, independents really disliked Trump as an individual, the man, by a 39% like/58% dislike. It was their dislike of Trump, the man, the person that defeated him.

Couldn't decide who to quote in a response, but what Greger said seems to be the most on point - the lies that got people off of the couch and active in an insurrection (a pretty serious crime, if you have to think about it) need to be investigated in a big way. There's a slim possibility that the truth might wake up a couple of those ignorant beauty contest voters and raise awareness about the insane trajectory of the Righties (are the Lefties on a similar insane tragictory?).

This deep dive story about seven leading insurrectionists is very interesting, as it gives a look at the personal and psychological motivations of a cross section of the "partisans" who wrecklishly stormed the seat of U.S. Government. The insight gained just might give a few clues as to how to correct the related trajectory. So far I have only watched the first three bios.

I almost know one of the crazies - Couy Griffin, leader of Cowboys For Trump - as I once bought roughsawn lumber from his family sawmill. Couy might well have been the fellow who cut the logs. He comes from Catron County, NM, known locally as 'Cartoon County', which was infested with a community of Celtic warriors brought to the region as railroad workers in the 1800's. They are still to this day trying to make ancient Celtic Law the rule of the land. (The county seat, Reserve, is also known locally as 'Reverse'). These are people with a cultural heritage that enshrines the personal right of liberty best described as, "No effing a$$hole is gonna tell ME what to do!" If anything, Otero County is worse. Thank Gawd we have a Republic that protects their rights from the majority!!