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Moderate House Democrats threaten to blow up infrastructure negotiations

https://www.yahoo.com/news/moderate...frastructure-negotiations-133242084.html

It's seems like the Dems actually want to give back the house to the Republicans. It seems to me, in my view the budget and the infrastructure bill are two different things although probably a majority of democrats view them as the same.

Oh well, each side does have their own political strategy. Which side will pull back or will both step over the brink where perhaps both the infrastructure bill and the 3.5 trillion budget goes down the drain for some trying to get more than what is possible.

Time will tell.

Nine moderates are threatening to sink the bill if they don't get their way. No complaints here about that though...it's only when progressives speak up that folks get all up in arms here.

It's not that I am not complaining, I am waiting to see how it plays out.
Hopefully it's just posturing and hopefully Pelosi gets it sorted out.
Yes, agreed...it's pretty despicable when a handful of moderates try to kill a bill that should have wide support.

As I've been reading this, the nine moderates want the House to vote on the infrastructure bill first, then the budget second as they're two separate bills. Without the vote on the infrastructure bill first, they won't vote for the budget. The progressives want the vote on the budget first before the infrastructure bill as they tied their vote for the infrastructure bill, for or against based on the budget passing first.

It seems for the moderates, it's vote on the infrastructure first and if not, a no vote on the budget. For progressives, it a vote on the budget first or a no vote on infrastructure.

Anyway, from what I've been reading the battle is over which bill goes first. Each side tying their vote for or against on the second bill being decided whether their bill goes first or second.

I had a problem with word kill at first, but perhaps you're right. Moderates will kill the budget if the infrastructure bill doesn't get voted on first, the progressives will kill the infrastructure bill if the budget doesn't get voted on first. At least that is gist of what I've been reading.

The simple fact is that the Dems are pooping in their own nest - again! They will not disappoint the Republicans! They work hard at this and I, for one, am really sick and tired of it. They get my vote because the other side is, basically, bat s*** crazy! the Dems are not crazy but more like 8th graders trying to get into trouble. I have stated my own wishes as to what I think they should be doing and that hasn't changed. I have predicted what they will be doing and that is, obviously, not going to change. Just like a bunch of out of control children each of which gets their way or they will screw it ALL up! I suspect, by the elections next year they will have disgusted just about every voter there is so the voting will probably be low if anybody actually cares.

Its just incredible. Their opposition does virtually everything they can to turn off voters who are not true believers. That being the case the Dems see a chance to act out too! I guess its a competition!

Election wise, I don't think all of this posturing means much if anything come Nov 2022. It may for the present and the next few weeks. But not for the midterms in Nov 2022. Too far away, Americans have extremely short memories. For the short term, Biden needs the infrastructure bill much more than getting the budget through which congress has until 30 Sep 2021 to pass it. Election wise, I see no repercussions for the democrats in this fight as the midterms are far away.

Now independents, which decide elections don't like congress, either party in congress, period. Only 10% of independents approve of the job congress is doing, 66% disapprove with the rest are in either the neither approve or disapprove or don't know columns. Although approval/disapproval includes both major parties in congress, it is the Democrats in charge or control of congress and hence chances are independent voters will more likely take their disapproval out on the Democrats than the Republicans.

History shows only twice has the party who held the presidency gained seats in the house during the first midterm election. FDR and the Democrats in 1934 and G.W. Bush and the Republicans in 2002.

Regardless of the above, I think Biden and the democrats in congress, for the present need to pass the infrastructure bill much more than the budget. The infrastructure bill has been touted as bipartisan all over the news. Independents like it. It shows how they want the two parties to work together and compromise. That is how they think congress should operate. Compromise, come together to get things accomplished. Not to go off on one's own, stand on principle if you will. Democrats torpedoing the infrastructure bill could have dire consequences. No big thing as far as independents are concerned on the budget bill. This is just my opinion on what the numbers show.

I'm with you on that: Pass the infrastructure bill un-touched in the House, and get Biden to sign it. That will be a huge accomplishment, with a Senate that has Manchin and Senema unwilling to act as Democrats. With that alone, Democrats can probably take enough Senate seats in 2022, that they don't need Manchin and Senema to dump the filibuster, and pass the new Voting Rights act. Then it's all over for Republican minority rule.

Be careful Pondering. Don't get too over confident. Sure, as of today the Democrats most likely will pick up Pennsylvania with the Retirement of R Toomey. Wisconsin is another possibility, R Johnson has said he would serve only two terms. Johnson isn't liked much in Wisconsin even if he runs for a third. Wisconsin is at least a 50-50 tossup to lean democratic. With R Burr retiring in North Carolina, North Carolina becomes another pure tossup state. These three make a possible gain of 3 seats for the democrats. The rest of the Republican held states look fairly safe at the moment, although Florida may give the democrats a shot at another. Hence my forecast as of tonight of a democratic pick up of 1-3 seats.

There's only 2 Democratic seats that may be in trouble. If Republican Gov Sununu runs against D incumbent Hassan in New Hampshire, that would make that state a pure tossup. If Sununu doesn't run, Maggie is safe. Then there is Georgia, D Warnock chances are also 50-50 at the moment for retaining his seat. Warnock may be a slight favorite today. But if so, not by much. The Democrats have the advantage of defending only 14 senate seats in 2022 vs. the Republicans having to defend 20.

Now the House, I've said all along no predictions until after redistricting. But the Republicans have a much better chance of winning back the house than the senate. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans do take back the House in 2022 while the democrats increase their advantage in the senate. That is probably the most likely scenario today. But until redistricting, that is just a stab in the dark.

There's a real possibility the Democrats after Nov 2022 will have a 53-47 advantage in the senate, but will be in the minority in the House which would make doing away with the filibuster meaningless.

Another thing to keep in mind is in 2024 the Democrats will be defending 23 seats to the GOP 10 in the senate. The republicans will have a much better chance of regaining the senate in 2024 than in 2022.

I'm assuming Democratic control of the Senate and holding the House in 2022 would mean the filibuster is dead and the new voting rights act passed. That and the latest demographics shown in the census pretty much takes the Republican prospects out of the picture. Just the demographic changes alone were always going to kill the Republicans, unless they suddenly stop being such racist a-holes depending on voter suppression. If they did what their post-election-loss analyses said, and tried to recruit more people of color and Spanish speakers, they might hang in there for a while. Not decades, though.

I think Covid19 might change the outcomes in some purple races as well. Anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers seem to be heavily Republican for some reason, even though Trump started Operation Warpspeed AND got vaccinated! When a Trump voter dies, he usually stops voting Republican. Do they see the light when they almost die? We shall see.

I think relying on demographics to give the Democratic Party control of congress and the government forever is a mistake. White Liberals paint Trump a racist. But Trump received 12% of the black vote in 2020. That's the largest percentage of the black vote any Republican candidate for president had received since Gerald Ford received 15% back in 1976.

Trump also received 32% of the Hispanic vote in 2020, That's a higher percentage of any Republican presidential candidate going back to Reagan in 1984 with the exception of 2000 and 2004 when G.W. Bush received 35% and 40% of the Hispanic vote. Reagan received 37% of the Hispanic vote in 1984. Bush spoke Spanish and made several political ads in Spanish. On the border area, Trump received 41% of the Hispanic vote in Texas, 38% in New Mexico and 37% in Arizona. Contrast to a state far away from the border, New York for example, Trump received only 22% of the Hispanic vote there.

Trump received 34% of the Asian vote, the most since 2004 when G.W. Bush received 41%. Comparing Trump to other Republican presidential candidates who weren't painted as racist, he did pretty well among minorities. Why was that?

My question is, is this a trend, minorities beginning to vote more Republican or was 2020 a one shot deal? I suppose we'll have to wait until 2024 to find out.