Be careful Pondering. Don't get too over confident. Sure, as of today the Democrats most likely will pick up Pennsylvania with the Retirement of R Toomey. Wisconsin is another possibility, R Johnson has said he would serve only two terms. Johnson isn't liked much in Wisconsin even if he runs for a third. Wisconsin is at least a 50-50 tossup to lean democratic. With R Burr retiring in North Carolina, North Carolina becomes another pure tossup state. These three make a possible gain of 3 seats for the democrats. The rest of the Republican held states look fairly safe at the moment, although Florida may give the democrats a shot at another. Hence my forecast as of tonight of a democratic pick up of 1-3 seats.
There's only 2 Democratic seats that may be in trouble. If Republican Gov Sununu runs against D incumbent Hassan in New Hampshire, that would make that state a pure tossup. If Sununu doesn't run, Maggie is safe. Then there is Georgia, D Warnock chances are also 50-50 at the moment for retaining his seat. Warnock may be a slight favorite today. But if so, not by much. The Democrats have the advantage of defending only 14 senate seats in 2022 vs. the Republicans having to defend 20.
Now the House, I've said all along no predictions until after redistricting. But the Republicans have a much better chance of winning back the house than the senate. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans do take back the House in 2022 while the democrats increase their advantage in the senate. That is probably the most likely scenario today. But until redistricting, that is just a stab in the dark.
There's a real possibility the Democrats after Nov 2022 will have a 53-47 advantage in the senate, but will be in the minority in the House which would make doing away with the filibuster meaningless.
Another thing to keep in mind is in 2024 the Democrats will be defending 23 seats to the GOP 10 in the senate. The republicans will have a much better chance of regaining the senate in 2024 than in 2022.
