Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

But the black vote is only one demographic, Republicans face challenges in all of them.

As America becomes less white the Republican Party will become less white. The Republican Party will never become less conservative though.

We'll see. Parties always adjust. The White vote has been consistent since 1972 with the Republican candidates receiving 55-58% of the white vote with the exception of 1992 and 1996 mainly due to Ross Perot candidacy. Blacks too have been consistent since 1980 giving the Democratic candidate 90% of the vote with the exception of 1992 and 1996 when Perot drew 7% and 4% which caused the democratic candidate to fall below 90%. Trump Received 57 and 58% of the white vote in 2016 and 2020. But increased his black vote from 8% to 12% from 2016 to 2020. Biden received 87% of the black vote, the lowest for a Democrat since 1980 again with 1992 and 1996 being exceptions.Even Mondale in Reagan's landslide year of 1984 received 90% of the black vote.

Hispanics has been much more flexible than either whites or blacks. Giving Reagan 35 and 37%, G.H. W. Bush 30 and 25%, Dole 21%, G.W. Bush 35 and 44%, McCain 31%, Romney 27%, Trump 28 and 32%. So we have a range between 21-44% for Hispanic's historically voting for Republican presidential candidates.

The Republican Party knew they had to do something after Romney's defeat, they began an outreach toward Hispanics, which came to an abrupt end with Trump. Yet Trump did better among Hispanics than Romney with 28 and 32% while seemingly trying to alienate them.

Trend or one shot, there's the history as brief as I can make it. Now here's the latest generic congressional poll which asked which party one would vote for in the up coming 2022 congressional election. This is nationwide, not district by district which can't be done until redistricting occurs, so put as much stock in it as you care too.

Overall 42-40 for Democratic congressional candidates over Republican congressional candidates.
Whites 46-36 Republican over democratic
Blacks 72-14 Democratic over Republican
Hispanics 51-31 Democratic over Republican
Asian and other races, plus mixed, 41-41 tie

The rest are in the other, voting for a third party candidate or not sure so the totals won't add up to 100%

https://scottrasmussen.com/generic-ballot-democrats-42-republicans-40/


I added the generic ballot as it seems blacks are becoming more willing to vote Republican while whites could be leaving the GOP ranks. Trend or one shot? Perhaps the midterms will help answer that as for minorities becoming more willing to vote Republican.

This is interesting, it may effect the midterms much more than the evacuation of Afghanistan which I think will be short term. This may have lasting repercussions, election wise for the midterms, that is.

Deeply Divided, House Democrats Battle Over Priorities and Politics

https://www.yahoo.com/news/deeply-divided-house-democrats-battle-165019605.html

I'm looking at this from the upcoming midterm elections. The in-fighting, every party goes through that from time to time. That doesn't bother me much. What does is that progressives are trying to primary out incumbents, a lot of incumbents that won in swing and republican leaning districts because their rhetoric or ideology were suited more to those districts than a progressive challenger who isn't an incumbent would be.

An open seat is much easier to switch than beating an incumbent. I don't have an accurate rating for the house as to seats won or lost and won't have until redistrcting is completed. But it doesn't take a political rocket scientist to figure out keeping as many incumbents as possible to run next Nov increases your odds of keeping the house. Having no incumbent, makes losing that district much easier especially if the challenger doesn't match the districts ideology or partisan bent.

Of course I'm talking elections, chances of winning and losing elections with little thought to political ideology or agenda. The only realistic numbers we have to go by with the house without redistricting is the generic congressional ballot. The question is who would you vote for in the coming midterms in Nov 2022, the republican candidate or the democratic candidate? This is nationally, nationwide without regards to districts. Since 1 Aug I have seen the generic congressional ballot go from a plus 7 democratic, 48-41 down to a plus 1 today, 47-46 Democratic. Not good news for the Democrats, although I figure Afghanistan has a lot to do with the GOP rise. Especially among independents, swing voters, non-affiliated etc.

Throw in Democratic House retirements meaning open seats, add some Democratic incumbents being primaried out, the closing of the generic ballot, you're probably looking at a 15-20 seat loss in the house. That is as of today. But that isn't set in concrete. The concrete hasn't begun to dry yet, heck, the concrete hasn't been poured yet and won't be until redistricting is completed.

For someone who looks at these things from an election perspective, who studies independents, swing voters intensely. Primaring out incumbents who give you the best chance of retaining the house and winning elections is rather stupid. At least to me.

Of course, all of this may mean nothing a couple of months down the road, the Democrats could have patched up their differences and let a bit of political common sense when it comes to winning election come to the forefront. Then again, maybe not. I've seen both parties choose candidates solely based on ideology that have no chance at winning the district or state in the general election, not much surprised me anymore. We'll see.

One more thing that's just came in.

Biden approval rating hits lowest point yet amid Afghanistan chaos, Covid surge

https://www.yahoo.com/news/bidens-job-ratings-decline-amid-130000035.html

I agree with the conclusion of one of the pollsters that the fall has more to do with COVID, the Delta version than with Afghanistan. From the article.

“The promise of April has led to the peril of August,” Horwitt said, arguing that Covid — more than Afghanistan — has dented Biden’s numbers. “It is the domestic storm, Covid’s delta wave, that is causing more difficulties at this stage here at home and for President Biden.”

McInturff agrees.

“The best way to understand this poll is to forget Afghanistan,” he said.

Another indication is back in April 44% of all Americans believed the country was headed in the right direction, today that percentage is down to 33%. What's worse is today only 24% of independents believe the country is headed in the right direction. Down from 41% last April. Not good news for retaining the House.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html

I let the numbers speak for themselves.Not the heart nor who I want to win. It's all about the numbers.

So the way I see this...Republicans are actually beating Biden by refusing to get vaccinated and dying.

That's a lot more dedication to The Party than Democrats are usually willing to muster and I'm not sure if they can keep this up.

It's become a death cult now. Even Trump was booed at a rally when he suggested his minions get vaccinated.

It's really not Republicans and Democrats I keep track of. I know how they'll vote. It's independents that decide election. As for vaccinations, I haven't seen or haven't paid any attention to the percentages via party.

What I'm interested in is actions that could influence independents as Gallup puts their percentage at 43% of the electorate as of 21 July 2021. Which that 43% can be broke down into independents lean Republican 15, lean Democratic 18, true or pure independents with no leans, 10, total 43%. No figures for August yet.

What this means is Democrats counting independent lean Democratic make up 45% of the electorate vs. the Republicans along with independents lean Republican at 41%

Keep in mind those who identify themselves with either major party vote for their party's candidates on average 92% of the time. while independents who lean toward one party or the other will vote for the party they lean toward 73% of the time on average.

The bad news since last month is independents are now stating they'll vote for the Republican candidate for the House,40%, for the Democratic candidate 35%, rest are undecided/not sure. Although I don't put much stock in the generic congressional polls. It's the best I have to go on until redistricting occurs.

Statistically, I'm not a very good independent.

Am not and will never be a Democrat, yet I vote for them 100% of the time.

I'm also white, southern and rural...or was before they forced me to move out of the swamp.

I'm uneducated. Worked in construction.

I live in the deep south.

And I am a socialist with a fondness for Marxist philosophy.

The path to social democracy lies through the Democratic party, not around it.

I agree Greger, a social democracy does lie with the Democrats and not the GOP. I'm different, although a political junkie, I have been since I first watched the Democratic and Republican National Conventions back in 1956. I'm no party hound. For some reason the intricacies of elections to include forecasting them became an obsession with me. I never was too interested in who won or lost, just getting my forecasts right.

Most political junkies are ideologues and party hound dogs, I may be the lone exception to that. I pick up on things that effect elections, if they don't have an effect on an election outcome, they usually don't interest me. So an article about progressives primaring out more moderate, better suited incumbents to win the districts they're in, that was of major interest. It mean the Democrats or at least progressive are putting ideology over winning elections. Dimming their chances of retaining the House. So too is this article from CNN.

How the political environment is moving toward Republicans

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/22/politics/special-elections-republicans-analysis/index.html

Intra-party squabbles usually don't interest me. But when Biden and the Democrats need the infrastructure bill much more than the 3.4 trillion dollar budget to maintain a winning and positive edge, especially among independents, that makes me wonder if the Dems care about winning elections.

As for me, I was a white Georgia farm boy prior to a 47 year career in the army. 21 years active duty, 26 more as a department of the army civilian. I left Georgia when drafted in 1966 and didn't return until 1987 going to work at Ft. McPherson near Atlanta. Since then I moved back out into the country. I never liked big cities, a big city is any city with more than 10,000 folks in my book.

My voting habits, Mostly Democratic until Reagan. Mostly Republican during Reagan and G.H.W. Bush, then all over the place from 1992 on which included quite a few votes for third party candidates.. I've come to despise both major parties as I think they're both putting party above country. I look on myself as a swing voter, not as an independent.

I'd be a swing voter too if Republicans offered up the occasional sensible candidate.

My inclination, more often than not, is to simply blow off the whole thing and sit on the couch with the other lefties. Perhaps if I were centrist I could see the value in an occasional moderate Republican. But I'm not.

And I don't.

Predictions are my main game too, and things are sliding downhill for Biden. But who and what are Republicans going to counter with?

Can Trump win again...? Are they determined to elect the least qualified candidate available...? Will Independents and swing voters go back to Trump...or a Trump-like troglodyte like DeSantis...? Because Biden couldn't MAKE Republicans get the vaccine...? Because he ended a trillion dollar decades-long war and everything didn't go smoothly...?

Or because a couple of hotly contested bills don't pass.

You're grumbling because progressives hope to make gains against centrist democrats by running against them in the primaries...as though this is going to throw the whole election.

I'm pretty sure this is how elections are supposed to work...people of various beliefs and ideologies vying to become elected representatives.

You seem to think it's best to always play it safe. Or that it's best to always stick to the centrist message.

Winning isn't everything. If all you care about is winning you wind up with the homogenous goo we have in congress right now. Incapable of accomplishing anything ever.

I love your analysis, but not your source. As far as past votes, those are mostly in stone. Rasmussen's polling, however, is often questionable. I think it's also relevant to point out that is mixing race and ethnicity. "Hispanic" is an ethnic designation, which includes such a mix of races, nationalities, and attitudes it is almost a meaningless designation, unless very carefully parsed.

Nonetheless, it is good to parse the elections to make predictions. Well done, sir.