Right now, I disagree about losing the senate. The Democrats should gain 1-3 seats there. The house, no one knows yet until redistricting is completed. Obama and the Democrats rushed and passed the ACA all by themselves with the majority of Americans against it. The ACA wasn't ready to be passed, it still needed a lot of work. But time was of the essence, Brown won a special election in Mass to replace Kennedy and once seated, that would end the filibuster proof senate majority. So the Democrats went ahead and passed it thinking they could change, correct any flaws in the legislation as all legislation have. No law or legislation is perfect from the start.
But 2010 happened. The Democrats made independents angry at them, independents voted against Democratic congressional candidates by a 57-39 margin. One of the bigger margins against one party in history by independents. Just 2 years earlier, independents voted for Obama 52-44 over McCain and for Democratic congressional candidates 52-45 over the Republican congressional candidates. What a difference 2 years make when one party makes independents angry at them.
Congressional wise the Democrats went from a plus 7 in 2008 among independents to a minus 18 in 2010, a swing of 25 points. Basically unheard of. Moral of the story, don't make independents angry at you if you want to win elections. Obama basically was a lame duck president for his last six years. Only getting anything accomplished through executive orders which the next president can revoke, cancel, change, rescind.
The house, the Democrats will probably lose control of it. The question is how many seats will they lose? That's unknown until redistricting occurs. With little to go on except the generic congressional vote, I don't see a red wave coming. I don't like going by the generic congressional ballot as it's nationally and not district by district. A loss of 10-15 seats most likely based on the Generic. That is basically a win for the democrats in the first midterm as losses of 44, 54, 63 seats have occurred for the party in control of the house and the presidency since 1994.
Below are the polls thanks to RCP of public opinion on the ACA when the Senate passed it in November of 2009
CNN/Opinion Research 12/2-12/3 36% for 61% Against/Oppose +25
Rasmussen Reports 11/29 - 11/29 41% for 53% Against/Oppose +12
Gallup 11/20-11/22 44% for 49% Against/Oppose +5
Ipsos/McClatchy 11/19 - 11/22 34% for 46% Against/Oppose +12
Rasmussen Reports 11/21 - 11/22 38% for 56% Against/Oppose +18
FOX News 11/17 - 11/18 35% for 51% Against/Oppose +16
PPP (D) 11/13 - 11/15 40% for 52% Against/Oppose +12
Below are the polls thanks to RCP of public opinion on the ACA when the House passed it in March of 2010
Bloomberg 3/19 - 3/22 38% for 50% Against/Oppose +12
CNN/Opinion Research 3/19 - 3/21 39% for 59% Against/Oppose +20
CBS News 3/18 - 3/21 37% for 48% Against/Oppose +11
Rasmussen Reports 3/19 - 3/20 41% for 54% Against/Oppose +13
Quinnipiac 3/16 - 3/21 36% for 54% Against/Oppose +18
Democracy Corps (D) 3/15 - 3/18 40% for 52% Against/Oppose +12
FOX News 3/16 - 3/17 35% 55% Against/Oppose +20
