I think the Democrats, if the election were held today would pick up a couple of senate seats. Here's the list of switchable seats. All other seats look safe for the party that currently holds them.
Arizona Kelly D –The former astronaut Kelly is well liked and should win. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Florida Rubio R – Close, but the polls give Rubio a 5-10 point lead at this time over Val Demmings. Republican hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D –Another close one, but incumbency should keep Warnock in the senate. If the Republican nominate Hershel Walker, the former Georgia football star and NFL player, all bets are off. For now, a Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Masto will probably be a fairly easy winner. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
New Hampshire Hassan D – If Sununu, the GOP governor runs, this may be a Republican gain. If not Hassan is safe. Until Sununu decides, NH is staying a Democratic hold. R 50 D 50
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. 50-50, Republicans out number Democrats in NC by a slight advantage. PVI R+3 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. Democrats have the advantage with their most likely candidate being the Lt. Governor. Fetterman Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Wisconsin Johnson R – Johnson isn't liked. If he runs again, the democrats will win. Democratic gain R 48 D 52
A short very condensed preview of my forecast due in January. As for the House, I've said until redistricting is completed, making any forecast there is useless. But going by history of the first midterms and the generic congressional ballot, needing but to gain 5 seats, current indications is the House will most likely be in GOP hands.
I've mixed feelings on the filibuster. I'd be all in favor of keeping it, but I realize if the Democrats don't do away with it, once the Republicans gain the senate and the presidency, they will. I'd say if the Democrats are going to do away with it, they better do it right quickly. After the midterms, if all indications are correct, it won't matter as the GOP will have the House. More on the house once redistricting is completed.
