Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

Speaking of winning with 2022 around the corner. August was a bad month for Biden and the Democrats.

Biden’s overall job approval/disapproval numbers:
1 Aug 51.3% approval, 45.9% disapproval/31 Aug 46.3% approval, 48.6% disapproval

Generic congressional vote
1 Aug Democrats 48% Republican 41% D plus 7/31 Aug Democrats 46% Republicans 44% D plus 2.

Direction of the Country, right track/wrong track

1 Aug right track 40%, wrong track 53%/31 Aug right track 30%, wrong track 61%

Now I wouldn’t blame all of this on Afghanistan, although Afghanistan was the wake up call which meant Biden not being Trump isn’t enough for the voters anymore. Especially independents. The honeymoon is finally over after 6 months. Other issues that have also fallen in August.

Immigration 1 Aug 42% approve, 54% disapprove/31 Aug 34% approve, 57% disapprove

COVID 1 Aug 62% approve, 38% disapprove/31 Aug 53% approve, 43% disapprove

Economy 1 Aug 55% approve, 45% disapprove/31 Aug 46% approve, 49% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

My take on this, if one is to have a bad month, 14 months out before the election is the time to have it. Plenty of time to rebound. Even with the bad month of August, the senate still looks like the Democrats will gain 1-3 seats. Mainly because of Republican retirements which will leave 4 open seats. No retirements yet for the Democrats. Predictions on the House is useless until redistricting is completed. All I’ll say there is midterms haven’t been kind to the party that holds the presidency. Only once since 1934 has the party who holds the presidency gained seats. 2002 when the GOP gained 8. Those are extremely high odds for the Democrats retaining the house since the GOP needs a net gain of only 5 seats to take control. The odds aren’t zero, since it’s been done once since 1934. Probably in the single digits though. Just a SWAG.

For those who think demographics will ensure Democratic success, I think one should read this. The Democratic Party which was once the party of the working man/class has become the party of the college graduate. This also could explain Trump's success in 2020 among minorities. Trump did after all received the highest percentage of the black vote since Gerald Ford in 1976 than any other Republican presidential candidate. Hispanic vote also since Reagan.

How Educational Differences Are Widening America's Political Rift

https://www.yahoo.com/news/educational-differences-widening-americas-political-182536495.html

Make of this what you will, But as one who studies numbers, the working class is voting more and more Republican including Union House holds. Hillary Clinton received but 51% of the union household vote, Biden upped it to 54%, Obama received 62 and 65%, Kerry 62%, Gore 62% and on back. It'll be interesting to see if the trends mentioned in the article continue for 2024.

Biden's had a bad month alright, but another recent poll showed DeSantis getting smashed by Biden in a hypothetical race.

Republicans have gotten themselves into hot water in Texas over the abortion issue. A majority of Americans are in favor of safe, legal abortions. The new law is a slap in the face to that majority.

Depends a lot on what sort of nutcases run on the Republican side.

I'm bold enough to say that with everything I know right now, I'm still predicting fairly small changes in the House. Dems might not keep it but it'll stay closely matched. Unless something big changes, there will be no blue or red waves this time around.

I agree, there's no indication of any type of wave, red or blue as of yet. The change in the house, perhaps 10-15 seats as a SWAG. Nothing firm to indicate that though until redistricting is completed. DeSantis, The latest polling for governor has Charlie Crist leading DeSantis 52-40. But this was an average of four August polls, no polling done so far in September. Rubio is up by 6 over Demmings 50-44.

From what I read a majority of folks from Florida think DeSantis is too busy running for president than caring what happens in Florida. But you are there.

now being a numbers man, I’m doing a weekly comparison of Biden’s approval ratings, pre-Afghanistan withdrawal vs. post Afghanistan withdrawal. What I’m looking for is to determine if the drop in Biden’s approval numbers was solely due to Afghanistan or if it was a combination of different things. 1 Aug numbers, pre-Afghanistan, 31 Aug numbers, end of Afghanistan withdrawal, 7 Sep numbers post Afghanistan. I'm going to do this weekly.

Biden’s overall job approval/disapproval numbers:
1 Aug 51.3% approval, 45.9% disapproval/31 Aug 46.3% approval, 48.6% disapproval/7 Sep 45.7% approval, 49.1% disapproval.

Generic congressional vote
1 Aug Democrats 48% Republican 41% D plus 7/31 Aug Democrats 46% Republicans 44% D plus 2/7 Sep Democrats 46% Republicans 44% D plus 2.

Direction of the Country, right track/wrong track

1 Aug right track 40%, wrong track 53%/31 Aug right track 30%, wrong track 61%/7 Sep right track 30%/wrong track 60%.

Immigration 1 Aug 42% approve, 54% disapprove/31 Aug 34% approve, 57% disapprove/7 Sep 35% approve, 57% disapprove.

COVID 1 Aug 62% approve, 38% disapprove/31 Aug 53% approve, 43% disapprove/7 Sep 53% approve, 53% disapprove.

Economy 1 Aug 55% approve, 45% disapprove/31 Aug 46% approve, 49% disapprove/7 Sep 46% approve, 49% disapprove.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

A week without change after the withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Labor Day Weekend probably had a great deal to do with maintaining the status quo. I’ve believed after Afghanistan that Biden’s numbers would begin to improve as Afghanistan moved into history. This is just an opinion which everyone has one. I also think for Biden’s first six months as president he benefited greatly just from not being Trump. But Afghanistan brought that benefit to an abrupt end. So we’ll see.

Republicans have fought Biden and reduced his popularity by grumbling about ending a war and by fighting the vaccine. They have stayed on top of their game by denying the results of the last election and keeping the covid death count high by refusing to mask or vaccinate.
They have renewed their war on women and continue the legislation to keep people of color from voting.

Biden still benefits greatly from not being Trump! All of us do! And all of us benefit from Biden not being Trump. His aggressive vaccine rollout saved thousands of lives. The government is actually getting a few things done and seems to be headed in the (actual) right direction as opposed to some science-denying wingnut's opinion of what the right direction might be.

Desantis has lost 14 points in popularity recently. I hear Greg Abbot is tanking as well.

California's governor appears poised to fight off the recall. I'm not a numbers guy but these trends seem to point to an overall favorability for the blue team right now.

One of the main features of the fascist totalitarians of the 1920's and 1930's was their tendency to turn ANY statement of fact into a question of MOTIVE.
That's a paraphrase of Hannah Arendt.
Here is a direct quote:
"The aim of totalitarian education has never been to instill convictions but rather to destroy the capacity to form any."

There are sins that a president can commit that is difficult to overcome. Biden's sin was that he publicly refused to admit that he had made an error in judgement in the evacuation of folks from Afghanistan. He didn't start soon enough nor did he have a plan when he did. All this was pretty obvious but he just couldn't say it out loud. He came close with the statement about the buck stopping but it was too vague. That kind of thing is not easily forgotten because it also means we have a president that is not always believable and we REALLY don't like that that.

Its really pretty interesting. When Trump ran into something he just said that he wasn't responsible - and he got away with it! At least we knew where he was coming from. Biden could have done something like that but he decided to dance. Now he has to do something stupid and then admit he did it and apologize.

Oh, one last on this. Presidents are always responsible for EVERYTHING! Even if they are, obviously, not responsible. That's just the way it is. Trump, for instance, inherited a really good economy from Obama but claimed responsibility for that same economy. He got away with that because he was president and everybody understood that he could do that. Its part of the deal - good or bad.

Oh, one REALLY last one. This rule also applies to governors, county commissioners, police chiefs, mayors, etc. If its on their watch then they are the responsible parties whether or not they agree. When they try and dance they make no friends. Its just the way it is.

But…but…I can’t remember the last time we had a president who WAS believable. Jimmy Carter, maybe, but only to his fans; the same with Obama (admittedly, had a lot of fans, me among them.) Reagan was mostly a glad-hander, IMHO, and Clinton betrayed his wife, so of course he would betray us. And then of course there was the ever-reliable Nixon..

My point is, it’s been a long time since there was a President that a large majority considered trustworthy or believable. We may not like it, but we’re used to it.

You probably have to go back to Eisenhower and JFK when a majority of Americans believed and trusted their president. Here's a graft on public trust in government.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/05/17/public-trust-in-government-1958-2021/

I may be wrong in trying to equate believably with trust, but they do run hand in hand.What's amazing is over 70% of Democrats trusted IKE and over 70% of Republicans trusted JFK. You won't find that today,

As for the midterms of 2022, I'll not make any forecast on the house until redistricting is completed. I'd just remember that most Americans have short memories and nothing that happens in 2021 will probably effect the midterms of 2022. That's usually how it works. Senate wise, since no redistricting is needed, it still looks like a net gain of 1-3 seats for Dems. But as Greger stated earlier, no wave election is on the horizon. At least not yet for either party. Without a 9-11, some unforeseen event happening, I don't see the Democrats bucking the historical record of losing seats in the house. Only once since 1935 has the party who holds the presidency gained seats in the house during a president's first midterm, 2002 which the GOP gained 8.

First midterm loses by president
Biden ?????????????
Trump 44
Obama 63
G.W. Bush gained 8 seats, but lost 33 in his second midterm in 2006
Bill Clinton 54
G.H.W. Bush 8
Carter 15
Ford not elected, doesn't apply
Nixon 12
LBJ 47
JFK 4
IKE 18

Average loss 21 seats.

I agree that believability and trust go hand in hand, and I agree with you about Ike, as well.