As I said, I always look for trends. The steadiness of Biden’s numbers has been amazing. That is until the earthquake of August. Then steadiness after. So far, 3 weeks into September isn’t enough to provide a concrete trend. But interesting. I never considered the withdrawal from Afghanistan as being important. But it certainly caused a downheaval in Biden’s numbers. I expected a small drop, then a quick recovery. That hasn’t happened. The numbers.
Biden’s overall job approval January through July between 52-55%, 1-21 Sep 46%
Direction of the country, right track January through July between 40-42%, 1-21 Sep 30%
Generic Congressional Ballot January through July, voting for Democratic congressional candidate between 48-50%, 1-21 Sep 43-44%.
The rest, the economy, COVID, foreign policy, immigration all show a 5-10 point drop in approval during August. I never attached much importance to the withdrawal from Afghanistan. It seems I was wrong. Or was it more than just the withdrawal. Perhaps, I’m taking a SWAG, it may be independents became aware Trump is gone, ancient history and they began to look at Biden closely for the first time in 6 months. I do know independents approval of Biden dropped from an approval average of 51-53% January through July down to 47% at the end of August, down to 43% today. Democrats maintained their approval of Biden between 90-95% January through 21 September, Republicans their low approval from January through 21 September between 6-12%. So it’s a no brainier to figure out independents are responsible. But what was so important about the Afghanistan withdrawal? That I can’t figure out. The only thing I can come up with, it wasn’t the withdrawal per se. It was the realization Trump is gone. Just not being Trump is no longer enough for independents. I may be all wet here. But it's the only thing that makes sense to me.
As for the numbers, 3 weeks doesn’t make a trend, it’s the trend I’m looking for. If these numbers continue through September and October and beyond, then we know a trend has developed and the democrats are in trouble come the midterms. The possibility exists that the month of August 2021 could be the month that decided the results of the midterms. Then again, probably not. But interesting, nonetheless. Afghanistan has me flummoxed. The drop has to be about something else. I may have completely missed the reason. What say you?
