Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Gerrymandering

I'd take Kamala Harris over Hillary Clinton any day of the week. I'll even throw in weekends.

Why? Because Kamala is WAY smarter than Hillary. Hillary in just too cunning and conniving. Kamala wants to do good in the world - but she isn't showing that side of herself right now, unfortunately.

I've never gotten the "wants to do good for the world" vibe from Hillary.

I don't think many have gotten good vibes from Hillary. You used the words cunning and conniving for Hillary. Independents used words like elitist, aloof, fake. She was also lazy. Trump both out campaigned her and out worked her. Trump made 116 campaign visits, stops, appearances, etc to Hillary's 71. That 71 looks bigger than what it was as it includes fund raisers in deep blue California and New York.

Deciding states, Wisconsin, Trump 5 visits, Hillary none. Michigan, Trump 6 campaign stops, Hillary 1. Pennsylvania, Trump 8, Hillary 5 and even in electoral rich Florida, Trump 13 trips to Hillary's 8. There's much more to 2016 and Trump's victory, this is only one thing out of many.

My personal opinion is that Hillary thought she deserved the presidency and hence, didn't do what was needed to win. I believe had she gave it the old college try, she would have won. But that's just my opinion. She also had one of the most inept campaign strategies I have ever seen. Such is life.

Harris failed to develop a following in the Democratic primaries. She brought nothing to the table as Biden's VP choice. Her numbers have dropped since the election.

If she's the candidate in 2024 I will vote for her. But I have zero faith in her leadership or her ability to win elections.

Being a woman(of color) is not the only qualification the next president is going to need.

What words are independents using to describe Harris?

Slight course correction/clarification: I almost didn’t use Hillary Clinton’s name, because people are so distracted by her. My point was not Clinton’s campaign or her as a politician, but the words used to describe her and why.

Which makes Greger’s question about words and Harris an interesting one.

I really haven't given Harris any thought outside of looking at the most recent polls when her name popped up. 2022 and what might happen then has been my focus. None given to 2024. So I don't know how independents are describing Harris or the words they're using.

I do know she's seen very unfavorable by them. More unfavorable than Trump is today. Why, I don't know. Perhaps she just grates folks the wrong way. You have people that do that, for no rhyme or reason, you just dislike the person.

I went back checking prior to Harris withdrawing from the Democratic Primaries. She was the 11th choice for the nomination. Yes, Democrats didn't care much for her back then either let alone independents.

I tried finding out about independents. No luck on how they're describing Harris. but I found this. An old May Article.

Here's why Joe Biden polls well, but Kamala Harris does not

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-h...en-polls-well-but-kamala-harris-does-not

And speaking on keeping focused, here's this weeks numbers.

1 Aug numbers, pre-Afghanistan, 31 Aug numbers, end of Afghanistan withdrawal, 21 Sep numbers post Afghanistan.

Interesting numbers, for the first time in the Biden presidency, his disapproval number has hit 50%.

Biden’s overall job approval/disapproval numbers:
1 Aug 51.3% approval, 45.9% disapproval/31 Aug 46.3% approval, 48.6% disapproval/21 Sep 46.3% approval, 50.0% disapproval.

Generic congressional vote
1 Aug Democrats 48% Republican 41% D plus 7/31 Aug Democrats 46% Republicans 44% D plus 2/21 Sep Democrats 44% Republicans 41% D plus 3.

Direction of the Country, right track/wrong track

1 Aug right track 40%, wrong track 53%/31 Aug right track 30%, wrong track 61%/21 Sep right track 30%/wrong track 62%.

Immigration 1 Aug 42% approve, 54% disapprove/31 Aug 34% approve, 57% disapprove/21 Sep 36% approve, 56% disapprove.

COVID 1 Aug 62% approve, 38% disapprove/31 Aug 53% approve, 43% disapprove/21 Sep 52% approve, 44% disapprove.

Economy 1 Aug 55% approve, 45% disapprove/31 Aug 46% approve, 49% disapprove/21 Sep 46% approve, 49% disapprove.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

Three weeks with basically no change after the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Biden and Company experienced a 10 drop in their approval or positive numbers during August. But since 31 August, there have remained the same. No improvement, no drop. I had expected to see a slow improvement which isn’t happening. Perhaps these numbers will remain constant where they’re at until the next unforeseen major event. Time will tell.

As we all know, the American voter has a really short memory span - Joe's numbers don't mean squat diddly today.

I agree, I just like to keep track of them. Hobby of mine. Those along with around 10 other types and categories of numbers I keep track of helps in forecasting. But as you pointed out, it is as of today, not tomorrow and certainly not Nov 2022. Although one can follow a trend which trends are important to gauge the future.

As I said, I always look for trends. The steadiness of Biden’s numbers has been amazing. That is until the earthquake of August. Then steadiness after. So far, 3 weeks into September isn’t enough to provide a concrete trend. But interesting. I never considered the withdrawal from Afghanistan as being important. But it certainly caused a downheaval in Biden’s numbers. I expected a small drop, then a quick recovery. That hasn’t happened. The numbers.

Biden’s overall job approval January through July between 52-55%, 1-21 Sep 46%
Direction of the country, right track January through July between 40-42%, 1-21 Sep 30%
Generic Congressional Ballot January through July, voting for Democratic congressional candidate between 48-50%, 1-21 Sep 43-44%.

The rest, the economy, COVID, foreign policy, immigration all show a 5-10 point drop in approval during August. I never attached much importance to the withdrawal from Afghanistan. It seems I was wrong. Or was it more than just the withdrawal. Perhaps, I’m taking a SWAG, it may be independents became aware Trump is gone, ancient history and they began to look at Biden closely for the first time in 6 months. I do know independents approval of Biden dropped from an approval average of 51-53% January through July down to 47% at the end of August, down to 43% today. Democrats maintained their approval of Biden between 90-95% January through 21 September, Republicans their low approval from January through 21 September between 6-12%. So it’s a no brainier to figure out independents are responsible. But what was so important about the Afghanistan withdrawal? That I can’t figure out. The only thing I can come up with, it wasn’t the withdrawal per se. It was the realization Trump is gone. Just not being Trump is no longer enough for independents. I may be all wet here. But it's the only thing that makes sense to me.

As for the numbers, 3 weeks doesn’t make a trend, it’s the trend I’m looking for. If these numbers continue through September and October and beyond, then we know a trend has developed and the democrats are in trouble come the midterms. The possibility exists that the month of August 2021 could be the month that decided the results of the midterms. Then again, probably not. But interesting, nonetheless. Afghanistan has me flummoxed. The drop has to be about something else. I may have completely missed the reason. What say you?

Back to gerrymandering. Here's something I know you all don't want to hear. Democrats attempting to gerrymander Oregon. Also Larry Sabato covers the Virginia governors race.

The VA-GOV Polls: 2013, 2017, and now

Oregon redistricting: Tense times as Democrats attempt a gerrymander

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-sept-22-2021/

This goes back to what I've always said, whenever a political party can gerrymander, they will. The Republicans hold more state trifectas, the governor and both chambers of the state legislature than the Democrats do. So they'll probably gerrymander a couple of more states than the Democrats. Just because one can gerrymander doesn't make it right, but neither party will pass up the opportunity. I don't like gerrymandering, I think it's totally wrong. But I don't blame the Oregon Democrats for doing it. As long as one party is doing it, one can't expect the other to stop or cede whatever political advantage gerrymandering gives them.