With Trump holding a rally in Perry, GA yesterday, a thought crossed my mind. Trump made the headlines here.
I decided to go back through the generic congressional ballots or polls which go back through April 2021 and compare when Trump was in the news and when he wasn't. Sounds silly, I know. But I was curious.
What I found is when Trump is in the news, the Democratic congressional polling numbers rise, when he isn't, they fall. That may be a no brainier to most. But I see Trump staying out of the news the Democratic advantage shrinks to 3, then Trump makes headlines, the Democratic advantage rises to 6, Trump fades again, down to 2, now up to 4. I'll check back in a couple of days to see how his Perry rally affected the generic congressional poll numbers. This was just a whim on my part.
94-97% of democrats have answered the generic congressional poll that they will vote for their candidates, 92-96% of republican answered they would vote for their candidates. It was independents that do the fluctuation, that cause the rise and fall from 2-6 point Democratic advantage. When the Democratic advantage was but 2 points, independents by a 50-46 margin said they would vote for a Republican, when it was 6 points, it was 45-44 of independents responding they'd vote for the Democrat.
Perhaps the Trump effect is still alive. Not to the degree it was during Biden's first 6 months, but still there, lingering in some independent's minds. But slowly fading away. My take anyway.
