Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

I almost forgot, this is what I originally was going post before the WV talk that I got caught up in. This is as of today.

Donald Trump could be charged with multiple crimes over his attempts to overturn his loss in the state of Georgia, report says

https://news.yahoo.com/donald-trump-could-charged-multiple-104506097.html

Wouldn't that include Abbott's numbers from you?

Okay, here you go. As of 14 Sep 2021 which is the most recent poll with the most recent numbers on Texas which includes a ton of other information than just the governors race. Take a close look at all of it, you'll get a better understanding of where Texas is politically. It covers pretty much all politicians, Biden, Harris, Abbot, all the rest and then some political hot issues.

https://www.scribd.com/document/526125317/The-Dallas-Morning-News-University-of-Texas-Tyler-poll

Keep in mind this is Texas, not the Northeast or West Coast. Different politics, different issues are cared about.

And what are those issues?

Texas stuff.

From Pero's number I see that only 25% identify as liberal. The rest are centrist or conservative. Hard to swing left with a demographic like that.

I suspect that number might run around 30% on average. Perhaps the binary split between liberals and conservatives is not so binary...

There appear to be three ideological groupings. Makes sense, when any two of them join forces it makes the other 30% look batshit crazy.

Trump is going to have a lot of other indictments before the end of the year or the first part of next year..
Washington dc prosecutors are working on it, New York state prosecutors are working on it, there are, at least, two other federal prosecutors working on it. Then there are the charges for not paying workers he owes and women he has assaulted as well. I keep wondering where all this stuff went but I can only assume that they are moving ahead. Now add in the results of the House investigation into 6/1 as well.

I think it was Mitch who pointed out that he is wide open to law suits when he leaves office. (that was after he actually accused Trump just after the 1/6 thing and before he got religion.

I haven't given Texas much thought, the governor races belong to someone else. The House and senate are mine. Texas is an R+5 PVI which means most statewide races will be competitive, but the Republicans have the partisan advantage. Democrats in Texas must win the independent vote by a good margin to win there, statewide that is.doable with the right candidate/s.

It's the opposite nationwide, Republicans can't win the presidency unless they win independents. Nationwide it is D+3 which simply means for a Republican to win the popular vote, the GOP candidate would have to win independents by 6 points, give or take depending on the turnout of each party.

Just keep in mind these PVI's are as the first of the year, 2021 But are useful in determining how a state leans. But in the end it boils down to the candidates, the hot issues and recent events. Unless a state has a PVI of above 10, then it is considered safe, solid. When dealing with PVI's, the best rule of thumb is independents decide any election in a PVI of 0 to +5. Although there always are exceptions as with Jones winning in Alabama a couple of years ago, but that was more candidate driven than PVI or partisan driven. Jones won the independent vote 60-37 which enabled him to a 2 point win. You're not going to find many elections where independents will give one candidate a 20 point win. That is about as rare as you can get.

This morning I was listening to the generals speaking to Senators. Seems that Biden was either not paying attention to what the military was telling him or he was and was ignoring it. I also suspect that if he would do that then he might also ignore the rest of his administration too. This was pointed out during the senators talking to the generals. Not only that but Biden also, apparently, lied about who said what to who. This one bothers me.

I thought we were done with lying presidents when Trump went away. Now I'm not sure and I seriously hope its not true. If it is, then the talking heads of TV will hammer the hell out of Biden which is not going to be a good thing.

There's no doubt Biden and company had a very bad August with close to a 10 point drop across the board in approval. Overall Job approval, the economy, foreign policy, immigration, COVID and the direction of the country, right track/wrong track. September will end with basically the same numbers for Biden and company as August ended. No improvement, no decline.

Lying, it seems to me all politicians try to blame someone else when things go wrong or simply state, I didn't know, I wasn't told. That's the cynic in me. So why should Biden be any different? There's no doubt that Biden botched the withdrawal from Afghanistan. That is still having repercussions for him and the democrats. 4 weeks later, I expected recovery, an uptick in all the approval categories. That hasn't happened.

I think since Nixon most Americans expect to be lied to from time to time, to be mislead. Again, the cynic in me. As a former military man, we kept a lot of stuff classified, some due to national security, but a lot more due to not wanting to embarrass the military, the government and friendly nations.

Perhaps the bottom line is if Biden lied, I don't hold it against him. I voted for Biden to get rid of Trump. Biden has been better than Trump, my vote has been verified to the good even if Biden lied. There's way too many other things, issues out their that Biden and company need to get a grip on which they don't have now than lying about whether he was told or not about keeping troops in Afghanistan. I don't think this will hurt him one bit. Some will get all fired up, others not, but it will quickly blow over. Other things like inflation, the border, COVID, whether we're headed in the right or wrong direction, they won't so easily be left behind.

I'd be more worried if I were a democrat about the 60% of Americans that think the country is headed in the wrong direction today whether than if Biden lied about not being told about troop strength in Afghanistan. 60% wrong direction is Trump like numbers.

We've talked about Texas and Florida's governors races which take place next year. but there is one a month away. Virginia, where R Youngkin vs. D McAuliffe. I'd classify Virginia as a solid blue state, yet McAuliffe leads Youngkin by just 4 points. Virginia where Biden beat Trump by 11 and Northam won the governorship by 10 in 2017. Where Democrats have a 10 point advantage over republicans in party affiliation. Yet this race is close, competitive when it shouldn't be. Why? Youngkin leads with Republicans (82% to 15%) while McAuliffe leads with Democrats (90% to 6%). Among Independents, the majority (54%) support Youngkin, compared to 35% who support McAuliffe and 9% who are undecided.

https://emersonpolling.reportablene...e-and-division-over-critical-race-theory

In the field of you never know, it's interesting that Republicans, 15% who plan on voting democratic will probably give McAuliffe the win. Republicans being responsible for electing a democrat. Republicans negating the advantage their candidate has among independents. Strange, but true. At least with a month to go.