I haven't given Texas much thought, the governor races belong to someone else. The House and senate are mine. Texas is an R+5 PVI which means most statewide races will be competitive, but the Republicans have the partisan advantage. Democrats in Texas must win the independent vote by a good margin to win there, statewide that is.doable with the right candidate/s.
It's the opposite nationwide, Republicans can't win the presidency unless they win independents. Nationwide it is D+3 which simply means for a Republican to win the popular vote, the GOP candidate would have to win independents by 6 points, give or take depending on the turnout of each party.
Just keep in mind these PVI's are as the first of the year, 2021 But are useful in determining how a state leans. But in the end it boils down to the candidates, the hot issues and recent events. Unless a state has a PVI of above 10, then it is considered safe, solid. When dealing with PVI's, the best rule of thumb is independents decide any election in a PVI of 0 to +5. Although there always are exceptions as with Jones winning in Alabama a couple of years ago, but that was more candidate driven than PVI or partisan driven. Jones won the independent vote 60-37 which enabled him to a 2 point win. You're not going to find many elections where independents will give one candidate a 20 point win. That is about as rare as you can get.
