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McAuliffe will win.

Looks like the next NJ gov will be a Dem too.

VA and NJ shouldn't be close. I do agree with you however. Murphy has a 13 point lead in NJ as democratic as that state is, that is totally expected. However, VA should be like NJ, double digits lead for McAuliffe.

I wonder what McAuliffe has done to peeved off independents? Or perhaps, it isn't McAuliffe, it's the present Democratic governor of VA that independents are peeved at. Call it the carryover effect. Or maybe independents weren't too happy with McAuliffe when he was governor the first time?

Then there's elections where it's just time for a change. Even Massachusetts elects a Republican Governor every once in awhile.

All this speculation is needless, McAuliffe will win. I was just really surprised to see the race this close when it shouldn't be.

In the final analysis, a win is a win.

I remain convinced that the Dems gotta start fighting and Biden has to understand that he is no longer just a legislator but the President of the United States and start acting the part. If there is an error admit it! Stop lying! Stand up and, at least, give indications that he is fighting back instead of taking it on the chin at every opportunity. The same goes for the Democratic party itself. I vote Democratic because the alternative is simply not right in the head!

As promised, just cold hard numbers.

1 Aug numbers, pre-Afghanistan, 31 Aug numbers, end of Afghanistan withdrawal, 30 Sep numbers post Afghanistan.

Biden’s overall job approval/disapproval numbers:
1 Aug 51.3% approval, 45.9% disapproval/31 Aug 46.3% approval, 48.6% disapproval/30 Sep 45.2% approval, 50.0% disapproval.

Generic congressional vote
1 Aug Democrats 48% Republican 41% D plus 7/31 Aug Democrats 46% Republicans 44% D plus 2/30 Sep Democrats 45% Republicans 42% D plus 3.

Direction of the Country, right track/wrong track

1 Aug right track 40%, wrong track 53%/31 Aug right track 30%, wrong track 61%/30 Sep right track 32%/wrong track 60%.

Immigration 1 Aug 42% approve, 54% disapprove/31 Aug 34% approve, 57% disapprove/30 Sep 34% approve, 58% disapprove.

COVID 1 Aug 62% approve, 38% disapprove/31 Aug 53% approve, 43% disapprove/30 Sep 52% approve, 45% disapprove.

Economy 1 Aug 55% approve, 45% disapprove/31 Aug 46% approve, 49% disapprove/30 Sep 45% approve, 50% disapprove.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

After the bad August, one month after the Afghanistan withdrawal, basically no change since 30 Aug. The trend seems to be stagnation, Since the end of August. No improvement, no worsening.

Now this probably shouldn’t be surprising. Biden had a steady straight-line approval of 53% from inauguration day until July. Within a point or two of 53%. For the month of September, another straight-line of 46%, up or down one point. The cause is in my opinion today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship. Democrats have constantly given Biden around a 95% approval, Republican around 5% give or take a point or two. That leaves independents to move the needle in today’s modern political era. Independents were giving Biden a 52% approval for his first six months, 43% for August and September. Hence the drop from 53% down to 46% overall or nationwide. Independents decide elections these days, it also seems independents also decide approval/disapproval ratings. How the two major parties vote, whether they approve or disapprove on elected officials and issues, policy is set in stone. Independents are now the wildcard and deciding factor.

So Biden's numbers are fairly stable, all he's gotta do is perform some trick to make indies happy and he's walking in high cotton again...

Basically, we gotta sit on our hands for 6 months, everything happening now will be replaced with whatever is happening then and will point more closely to the election results.

I don't think it's a matter of getting indie voters to switch parties so much as which indies get off the couch. Left leaners tend to be kind of ho-hum about midterms.

Republican state legislators have seen fit to write into law that they can easily change any vote that they don't like. I would think this couldn't be but, I guess, I am wrong. This being the case one can only wonder what we end up with in the next election.

Now consider this one. Today I was watching Justice Sonia Sotomayor said:: 'There is going to be a lot of disappointment in the law, a huge amount' She is saying, basically, that the Dems have allowed the Republicans to stack the supreme court and now we get to watch them take down the Constitution of the United States.

This is yet another example of the difference between the Republicans and the Democrats. The Republicans stick to their plans and don't waiver, not one inch. The Democrats, on the other hand, have no plans to stick to and spend a lot of their time fighting with one another instead. They have, obviously, no plan, or desire, to win!

Yet something else I really, really, hope is not true. The problem is most turn out to be true - unfortunately.

Independents have made up approximately 40%, give or take a point or two of the electorate for the last 10 years. Yet they only make up 25% of those who actually vote. In 2020 republicans made up 27% of the electorate, Democrats 31%, yet Republicans made up 35% of those who voted, Democrats 37% while independents made up 26%

.https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

I think one of the main reasons is Republicans and Democrats own the horses in the race, the candidates. Independents are basically bystanders or perhaps causal fans. Republicans and Democrats choose who they nominate, most independents have no say unless they live in open primary states.

But back to your point. What the numbers are today are basically meaningless come Nov 2022. If Biden and company had these numbers in August and September 2022, they'd be in trouble. But today, way too much time left. No one knows what will happen or what unforeseen event will occur that could change or turn the whole apple cart upside down.

This doesn't take away from independents deciding elections though. neither party's base is big enough to do that. Democrats enter an election, nationally, with a 3-4 point advantage in party affiliation. But independents can wipe that advantage out in a hurry.

I'm not sure how this will work. But it seems the infrastructure bill will be going down to defeat today. Because of progressives.

Pelosi says she'll push ahead with infrastructure vote despite opposition from progressives

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pelosi-s...osition-from-progressives-162614887.html

The part I'm not sure of is once the compromised, bi-partisan infrastructure bill is defeated in the house, to bring it back a live again, will it have to pass the senate once again? If it does, will those senators from both sides of the aisle who voted for this thing say to Hades with it? I don't know, I'm not up on the rules of the house and senate when it comes to these things.

They may be other repercussions. Will those moderate Democratic House members also say to Hades with it all as they must win reelection in districts that could go either way and vote against the 3.5 trillion bill as payback for the infrastructure bill they needed to help reelect them? All most all progressives are from safe districts where they don't have to worry about getting reelected. All unknowns to me. But very possible.

This is where I probably differ from you all. I'd take what I can get today and come back for what I couldn't get today, tomorrow. The old bird in the hand is worth two in the bush strategy. We'll see, this hasn't happened yet.

I'd take the bird in hand too. I'm betting most here would. Whichever faction gets blamed for blocking it will get multiple demerits, drops in polls and approval ratings.

It's the old art of the possible thing.

But it's also par for the course for Democrats. Since taking the helm a few months ago they've managed to disappoint everybody about everything. No $15 wage. No M4A. No filibuster changes. No more covid crazy checks. The botched retreat. Inter-party battles on what should be no-brainer legislation. ICE officers on horseback whipping Haitian refugees as if the regime hadn't really changed at all.

It's exactly what you'd expect from a guy like Biden and exactly what we're getting.

Unless he starts pulling some rabbits out of hats We're gonna have President DeSantis calling the shots soon.