I don't read the gloom and doom into all of this as much as you do. But my eyes are on Nov 2022, not today. Although I always look for trends among today's numbers.
I don't think DeSantis is going anywhere near the presidency. Sticking with Florida, Rubio might. So much dealing with 2024 depends on 2022. I don't think the democrats have the numbers to push their 3.5 trillion bill through. For me, it all boils down to numbers. When the ACA was first passed the democrats had a 256-178 advantage and could afford the loss of 34 democrats voting no. With a 222-213 edge, what the democrats can't afford is in-fighting. Take what's available.
For me, the bottom line is the Democrats are going to need these 10 or so moderate democrats from swing districts if they're going to maintain control of the house in 2022. They're also going to need Manchin and Sinema for control of the senate. Although the Dems should pickup PA and WI, but could lose GA and NH. NC is a pure tossup.
The senate passed a bill today keeping the government open until 3 Dec. If I were a Democrat, I'd take the infrastructure bill which would help keep those 10 moderate democrats from being replaced by Republicans, then concentrate on the debt ceiling. Put the 3.5 trillion on hold. Manchin and Sinema have already said they wouldn't vote for it anyway. It's dead in the senate. Be a political realist, realize the numbers aren't there and move on to other things that need done.
As an aside, I've been totally against the elimination of the filibuster and done a couple of papers on it. But the political realist in me tells me once the Republicans control the senate and have a GOP president, they'll do away with it anyway. So do away with it now. It's gonna go no matter what. Sometimes political reality sucks, but that's the way it is.
Last edited by perotista; 09/30/21 08:57 PM.
