Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

I don't read the gloom and doom into all of this as much as you do. But my eyes are on Nov 2022, not today. Although I always look for trends among today's numbers.

I don't think DeSantis is going anywhere near the presidency. Sticking with Florida, Rubio might. So much dealing with 2024 depends on 2022. I don't think the democrats have the numbers to push their 3.5 trillion bill through. For me, it all boils down to numbers. When the ACA was first passed the democrats had a 256-178 advantage and could afford the loss of 34 democrats voting no. With a 222-213 edge, what the democrats can't afford is in-fighting. Take what's available.

For me, the bottom line is the Democrats are going to need these 10 or so moderate democrats from swing districts if they're going to maintain control of the house in 2022. They're also going to need Manchin and Sinema for control of the senate. Although the Dems should pickup PA and WI, but could lose GA and NH. NC is a pure tossup.

The senate passed a bill today keeping the government open until 3 Dec. If I were a Democrat, I'd take the infrastructure bill which would help keep those 10 moderate democrats from being replaced by Republicans, then concentrate on the debt ceiling. Put the 3.5 trillion on hold. Manchin and Sinema have already said they wouldn't vote for it anyway. It's dead in the senate. Be a political realist, realize the numbers aren't there and move on to other things that need done.

As an aside, I've been totally against the elimination of the filibuster and done a couple of papers on it. But the political realist in me tells me once the Republicans control the senate and have a GOP president, they'll do away with it anyway. So do away with it now. It's gonna go no matter what. Sometimes political reality sucks, but that's the way it is.

I hope not but it's one of the possible outcomes. Desantis is plagued by covid, if that blows over soon the voters will forget about it. Everything happening right now doesn't matter.

Both he and Biden know they need to do something to regain some momentum.

Afghanistan may have been a move to boost popularity that backfired spectacularly.

believe it or not, a majority of Americans still approve ending the war in Afghanistan, but a majority also think Biden botched the withdrawal. I agree because of most Americans short memory, what is taking place right now will have little to no bearing come Nov 2022. But I also think what happens in Nov 2022 will have a lot of bearing on Nov 2024.

Some other hot issue or unforeseen event will replace what we're all hot and bothered today. Apparently the vote on the infrastructure bill won't take place this night as promised by Pelosi. She's a very political savvy gal, but perhaps even her savvyness may not be enough to overcome the number problems or the in-fighting among moderates and progressives.

What was it Will Rogers once said, "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat."

We'll see.

I woke up this AM with the Braves having clinched the NL East Division title and Pelosi delaying the vote on the Infrastructure Bill.

Infrastructure vote postponed despite Pelosi's efforts to push forward: 'We are not there yet'

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/pelosi-still-planning-infrastructure-vote-162117565.html

I think it will all come together at some point. I also read the 3.5 trillion bill is using reconciliation process which eliminates the filibuster. Only Manchin and or Sinema can kill the 3.5 bill in the senate. The Republicans don't have the votes.

But in the house, the game of chicken continues. Moderates saying vote on the infrastructure bill first or we'll vote no on the 3.5 and the progressives saying vote on the 3.5 first or we'll vote no on the infrastructure bill.

Regardless, it's still a numbers problem for Pelosi. 222 is far way from 256 the Dems had for the ACA vote. The moderates feel they need the infrastructure bill to get reelected in swing districts or even slightly red districts. Most progressives are from safe districts and I have the distinct feeling progressives would be happy to get rid of the moderates. The few that's left after 2010.

This is where I look at things differently. To retain control of the house the Democrats are going to need those 10 or so moderates to win their swing districts. I think progressives in the house has lost track of this, haven't thought of it, ignoring it or just plain don't care. They want the 3.5 and are willing to pay any price for it even if it means losing control of the house next year. Which would doom any future bills or agenda they may want.

This brings back memories of 2010 which basically made Obama a lame duck president for his last 6 years. Only accomplishing anything through executive orders. Not legislation. Some will argue it was worth it, some not. It's all a matter of perspectives.

But I think everything will come together sooner or later.

Really????

Was Pres Biden on the ground in Afghanistan collecting and analyzing the intel himself? Of course not, and if people had actually listened to what the Generals said during the hearing, they would have known the intelligence community blew it. They were the ones who did not foresee the rapid collapse of the government and military allowing the Taliban takeover. And ... Pres followed the advise of the Generals during the withdrawal. If people have a problem with the ensuing chaos, they should address their concerns to the Generals.

Of course in the grand scheme of things, the buck stops on the Resolute Desk.

You must be some kind of optimist. I think the Dems have metaphorically committed suicide, which will allow the right wing extremists to takeover the country and place a stranglehold on the throat of American Democracy and squeeze the life right out it.

Which is more important .... saving democracy or passing a human infrastructure bill? Link the negotiations ... take a hit on human infrastructure but pass a voting rights bill to ensure the fascists do not steal future elections.

Right wing extremists have numerous well funded groups and organizations working in the background to stomp the boot heel of fascism into the face of American Democracy.

I don't let partisan politics get me down. But here recently, the Democrats have had the a huge money advantage. Especially in 2020.

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/10/cost-of-2020-election-14billion-update/

I'm not worried about either bill at this time. mainly because I'm more insterested in how their passage or defeat will affect 2022 midterms. Now you may be correct that all this infighting has taken a toll on normal Democratic voters.

Biden's Slide With Key Voters: Momentary Blip or Danger Sign?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/bidens-slide-key-voters-momentary-121039167.html

The article mentions Texas, where Biden is at a very low 30% approval rating among Hispanics in Texas. He's also very low in New Mexico and Arizona. Probably because they're all fed up with all these illegals crossing the border, while it seems to them the Biden administration is doing nothing to stop them. Just a SWAG which is based on the number of Hispanics voting for Trump in those three states, around 14 points above the national average.

If Hispanics in Arizona are peeved enough at Biden, that could mean D Kelly senate seat could change to Republican next year. Way too early to make any call there. Right now, at least to me, Kelly looks fairly safe. But that could change in a hurry. If it does, who controls the senate could boil down to one state, NC.

Pramila Jayapal is the leader of the Democratic progressives. She used to be on the Seattle council. Her traveling mate was the one that turned over a police station to rioters and wanted to pass a rule that poor people could steal. Seattle downtown is pretty much shut down. All in all the progressives of Seattle are not all that delighted with their city council and, I suspect Jayapal is right in that bunch that is not exactly in favor right now.

Jayapal has always been able to get what she wanted and, now, her my way or the highway will cost the Dems the next election. Up to this point she has done pretty good getting her way but I suspect this may change. I have said it before and can't resist saying it now. The Democrats have absolutely no desire to win anything. Instead they will whine a lot about them bad Republicans and work very hard proving that they really know how to blame somebody else.

I suspect there may still be a chance for the basic infrastructure bill but the other one is unlikely to get passed and, if it does, it will be seriously attenuated. Given my age and my teeth I would love to see dental work to be part of medicare but I doubt that's gonna happen either.

OK, you gotta clarify.

Do you mean all the illegals who CROSS the border undetected, or asylum seekers who do SHOW UP at the border seeking legal asylum, or both?

Look ... all of those folks who can't tell the difference and still complain should be told there are laws regarding illegally crossing, legally seeking asylum, and if they don't like the media presentations, then they should contact their representatives to change the frakking law.

I think Trump supporters would like my proposal .... kill them .... kill them all. Of course I also believe at least 60% of the electorate are stupid.

My criticism is policy based, and certainly not based on what an uneducated electorate responds to pollsters. You look at the polls and say they are evenly split. I say look at the policies. While you defended your polls with historical data, I was listening to the Trump Base. Your polling did not reflect what the Trumpsters would do.

While I am a liberal, I do not allow that to color my objectivity. Had Pres Obama done what Mr Trump did, I would call for his impeachment and further call for legal proceedings for his criminal activities. I know it may be hard for you to understand that, coming from a partisan world, but you have to become an objective bystander to comprehend the threat coming from the right.

Here is an example. The Texas voting law alleges it addresses voter fraud, and yet Texas did not find voter fraud a problem. Each item in the law did not address fraud nor could be construed as combating fraud. So, consider Jim Crow Laws vis a vis Texas' Voting Rights Law. Blacks could vote under Jim Crow Laws, it was just an impediment to keep them from voting. Likewise the current Texas Law does the same thing. It does not prevent people (directed at urban centers, which means large percent potential Democrat voters) from voting, but does throw up hurdles to keep them from voting.

I suppose you would argue Republican governors have all stated that was not their intention, and it would prove your rebuttal. I'll let you try and figure it out ... it's not hard.

We should just stop saying “illegal immigrants crossing the border” and say “brown immigrants.” A large percentage of illegal aliens are people who came here legally but overstayed their visas. It’s a great way for Europeans to get here and stay here illegally - but nobody seems to worry about them.

(But I promise, if I ever lay eyes on my ex-husband from the British Isles, to turn his arse into ICE ASAP.)