Republican and Democrats voting for their party's candidates regardless of who they are is the norm. History has shown that on average 92% of those who identify with either major party will vote for their party's candidate.Hence, when it comes to election forecasts, Republicans and Democrats are the most boring groups. Everyone knows how they'll vote. Now figuring out independents, that's a challenge and is very interesting. So if Trump runs in 2024, 92% of Republicans, give or take a point or two will vote for him. If Biden were to run again in 2024, the same 92% of Democrats would vote for him. Guaranteed.
As for Biden, he said a couple of times during the primaries he'd serve one term. That is probably why many are speculating on who the Democrats will nominate in 2024. But let's get 2022 out of the way first, what happens in 2022 will directly effect what is to take place in 2024.
