I'm researching and keeping track of numbers for 2022. Not a decade from now or even 2024. Way too much can and will happened to say the Democrats will be out of power for a decade. I don't believe that.
After the Goldwater debacle in 1964, Goldwater received only 39% of the vote, the Democrats took a 68-32 advantage in the senate and a 295-140 edge in the House. Pundits were saying it take 20 years for the GOP to recover. But 4 years later, Nixon was president, the Republicans had gained 40 house seats and 10 senate seats.
After Watergate, another 20 year republican absence was broadcasted. That lasted until 1980 with Reagan becoming president and the GOP actually taking control of the senate for the first time since 1954.
With Reagan talk of the Republican lock on the presidency. Many books were written about that. That lock lasted until 1992. I tend to ignore these long range forecasts.
Even with Biden's drop in approval in almost every category, along with the Republican Party gaining a tie in approval with the Democrats, not much has changed as to 2022. A 8-15 seat pickup for the GOP in the House, just enough to give the Republicans control. a 1-2 seat Democratic pickup in the senate. Thanks to retirements of GOP senators.
Current Democratic seats to watch in the senate, NH, GA, NV, AZ. Current Republican held seats to watch, NC, PA, WI and FL. Democrats have a slight advantage in PA and WI, these are the two seats they could pick up. NC is 50-50 and Rubio a slight advantage in Florida. NH all depends on Sununu, if he challenges Hassan or not. If not, NH stays Democratic, Warnock, Masto and Kelly all are very slight favorites to retain their seats. But a lot can change between now and Nov 2022.
Kelly, AZ looked safe a month ago, but since then has seen his lead drop from double digits down to 4 points over 4 potential Republican challengers.
