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I'm researching and keeping track of numbers for 2022. Not a decade from now or even 2024. Way too much can and will happened to say the Democrats will be out of power for a decade. I don't believe that.

After the Goldwater debacle in 1964, Goldwater received only 39% of the vote, the Democrats took a 68-32 advantage in the senate and a 295-140 edge in the House. Pundits were saying it take 20 years for the GOP to recover. But 4 years later, Nixon was president, the Republicans had gained 40 house seats and 10 senate seats.

After Watergate, another 20 year republican absence was broadcasted. That lasted until 1980 with Reagan becoming president and the GOP actually taking control of the senate for the first time since 1954.

With Reagan talk of the Republican lock on the presidency. Many books were written about that. That lock lasted until 1992. I tend to ignore these long range forecasts.


Even with Biden's drop in approval in almost every category, along with the Republican Party gaining a tie in approval with the Democrats, not much has changed as to 2022. A 8-15 seat pickup for the GOP in the House, just enough to give the Republicans control. a 1-2 seat Democratic pickup in the senate. Thanks to retirements of GOP senators.

Current Democratic seats to watch in the senate, NH, GA, NV, AZ. Current Republican held seats to watch, NC, PA, WI and FL. Democrats have a slight advantage in PA and WI, these are the two seats they could pick up. NC is 50-50 and Rubio a slight advantage in Florida. NH all depends on Sununu, if he challenges Hassan or not. If not, NH stays Democratic, Warnock, Masto and Kelly all are very slight favorites to retain their seats. But a lot can change between now and Nov 2022.

Kelly, AZ looked safe a month ago, but since then has seen his lead drop from double digits down to 4 points over 4 potential Republican challengers.

Shor is a data scientist who does the same thing you do. But he has the time and the inclination to look deeper than most are capable of looking and to read futures a bit farther down the line.

It's not hard to see Democrats losing big in 2022, And if that happens then 2024 will likely go to Republicans as well. Nobody ever expected Uncle Joe to last two terms.

If Republicans field a qualified candidate who can actually govern without pissing everybody else off he will hold office and power for the next eight years...

And there's your decade gone in a single paragraph.

It's very possible. I do expect the GOP to retake the House in 2022. At least the early indications point to that. The senate, I'm not sure. But there's a year to go.

I agree 2024 probably boils down to the candidates. If Trump runs again, any decent democratic candidate would probably beat him. Harris, she could be another Hillary Clinton. Biden had said during the Democratic Primaries he plans on serving one term. I don't expect him to run again. I do think his hand picked successor, Harris is probably the worst candidate.

If the GOP decides to run someone else other than Trump, who knows. I think the best bet for the Democrats would be a fresh young face, if from flyover country, so much the better. The Republicans, I don't know who will come forth. Kasich and Rubio seem to be out of the picture.

But yes, if the GOP wins the presidency in 2024, yep, that's may be the decade.

The only fresh faces we're liable to see will be on the Republican side. You might have noticed that the Republican side has embraced and defended its own Young Turks, the Democratic side attacks them from every angle and tries to drive them away.

While AOC is considered a radical leftist among mainstream Democrats, the Proud Boys are considered "patriots" among mainstream Republicans. When it comes right down to it, Democrats are a lot more like Republicans than they'd like to admit.

SO MUCH like Republicans that they will vote for Republicans to stop ANY leftward movement.

It isn't the Republican Party that is doomed...they are driving the last nails into the Democratic Party's coffin as we type. Democrats have always sided with the losers anyway...what did they expect?

America rejected Trump in 2020. It did not reject conservatism. The only hope Democrats have is if Republicans run enough Trumpy candidates to make America reject Trumpism again in 2022 or by running Trump himself in 2024. This is the very reason I was so opposed to Biden during the primaries. And this is the very reason that he won.

I'm getting an idea that a cornerstone of American Culture is delusion.

Republicans actually have a culture according to your definition in the other thread. They are united under the flag, in Jesus, on war, 80 hour work weeks, motherhood, stock car racing, guns, and apple pie. Lefties should just go back where they came from.

They are united against science, education, fair wages, and healthcare.

2022 will likely see the house flip and in 2024 the Senate will go. That year there are 21 Democratic seats up for grabs and only ten Republican.

Harris is the presumptive Democratic candidate at this point in time and the Republicans will run Trump if he so chooses. If he chooses not to Desantis and Nikki Haley are topping the straw polls among conservatives. It'd be a hoot if the Reeps notched the first woman president and she set women's rights back a century. That's culture for ya!

I agree, 2020 was a total rejection of Trump. But not of the GOP nor an endorsement of a Democratic Party agenda. It certainly wasn't a mandate. For a mandate, a president must swamp his opponent, then bring in numerous house and senate members on his coat tails. Biden had none.


Reagan in 1980 had a mandate, he beat Carter by 11 points, Ronnie brought in 34 Republican house candidates and 12 GOP senate candidate which enabled the Republicans to gain control of the senate for the first time since 1954. That is having coat tails and a mandate.

Biden beat Trump by 4 points and lost 13 house seats. In fact the Democrats also lost 2 state legislatures and a governorship.

Obama probably came the closest to having a mandate in 2008. He beat McCain by 7 points, brought in 23 new House Democrats and 8 new Democratic senators.

2020 was a rejection of Trump, but not a rejection of conservatism as the down ballot results shows. It wasn't an endorsement for Democratic Party ideals or agenda. It was basically, for independents anyway of their wish for a saner president who knew how to act presidential and behave as a president should. If Biden did something or didn't do a thing, that was okay with them. Just act and behave presidential.

The bottom line is Biden has lost independents, at least for the time being. But this loss may be beginning to be written into stone. Empty shelves in stores are beginning to appear, gas has risen from 1.70 a gallon to 3.30 at least here over the last 6 months.. The price of a loaf of bread gone up from 2 dollars to 3 dollars and much stuff has skyrocketed over the last 6-8 months.

These get noticed. The price of heating one's home with natural gas is a 100 dollars more a month than last year. As Bill Clinton once said, it's the economy stupid. I'll add the price and availability of goods in stores also. The infrastructure bill and that 3.5 trillion wish list could mean nothing next year unless Biden and company can get prices and the availability of goods under control. I'm surprised few folks have noticed this.

Probably not too surprised by the Democrats not noticing this, they're too busy, too focused on Trump than to pay any attention to what is going on in their own backyard.

Here's a couple of articles that might explain what is happening with Biden and company.

Independents have turned on Joe Biden

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/08/politics/independents-biden-losing-fast/index.html

and what I was talking about in my previous post.

An energy crisis is gripping the world, with potentially grave consequences

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/energy-crisis-gripping-world-potentially-120310123.html

I'm not saying Biden is responsible, but the buck stops at the president's desk. That' how voters, independents especially view these things.

I am. And I guess a lot of other independents feel the same.

Maybe acting presidential and not being Trump isn't enough to satisfy a struggling nation.

Maybe he's actually got to assert some power. If Trump had two senators standing between him and what he wanted... what would Donald do?

That they do. A culture is not necessarily a force for good...