I’ve been studying the numbers as is my habit. I discovered, actually I knew we have an anomaly that is out of historical norms. It’s I never gave it a thought. I should have caught it long before now.
Here’s the anomaly, Biden’s overall job approval has dropped 8 points since 1 Aug, the right track direction of the country has dropped 10 points as has Biden job approval on immigration and handling of the economy. On COVID, Biden has dropped 11 points since 1 Aug. Biden’s disapproval on the above issues has risen correspondently. He’s below water on all of them.
The anomaly, the generic congressional ballot. It stood at 48-41 back on 1 Aug, a 7-point advantage for the Democrats. Today, the generic congressional ballot stands at 44-41, still in favor of the Democrats. Although the Democrats have dropped 4 points, the Republicans haven’t gained a single point. That is the anomaly. Historical, a drop in the president’s approval numbers, overall, the economy etc. is reflected in the generic congressional ballot. It isn’t. A 10-point drop in all the issues above should be reflected in a general way in the generic congressional ballot also. One expects, at least historically that the Republicans would have the lead at a minimum. Not still be 3 points behind.
I don’t know why this is. Other than saying that anything dealing with Trump, historical norms have been tossed out the window. It could be the generic congressional ballot is just slow in catching up with the other issues that are polled constantly. That in a week or two, the congressional ballot will fall into line with the other issue polls. Then again, maybe not. Taking a SWAG, it might be a majority of the voters don’t like the way Biden and company have been doing their job or jobs lately. But are reluctant to put Trump Republicans back in charge of congress. That is just a SWAG. It could be just a hopeful SWAG or there may be something to it. Regardless, I’ll continue to watch and study the numbers. Any ideas?
