Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

We are seeing a lot of behavior that is best described as "throwing a tantrum". Everybody hates everything about the pandemic, and some people need somebody to blame. Trump tried very hard to blame it all on the Chinese, but a recent research paper gave natural spill-over about a 99.999% probability.

The more rational among us recognize that this human tendency does no good, but we are in the minority here. No politician is going to make it go away, because they don't have that ability. Some will try to make things better. Some will try to make things worse.

Choose wisely.

Trump and I might add Obama would use executive orders. I might add it's 52 senators standing in Biden's way. 50 Republicans and 2 Democrats. Which leads me back to my numbers theory of the Democrats not having the numbers. But they may surprise me yet. Doubtful, but possible.

Not being Trump was good for 6 months. Most new presidents get a 100 day honeymoon, Biden received a 6 month one. No one should have expected that to last.

From looking at the numbers, my theory, Biden was a breath of fresh air compared to Trump. Just looking and acting presidential was enough to keep his approval numbers in numerous categories very high. Above 50%. The botched withdrawal from Afghanistan brought Biden into focus, especially among independents. Whereas breathing the Trumpless fresh air was good enough for six months, it ceased to be with the focus changed to what was happening today, the present, now.

First it was Afghanistan which turned independents attention to the border, then to COVID and Delta, then to the economy, then to rising gas and food prices, then on and on to other categories. With their attention averted from Trump, Biden and company began to pay the price of being Biden and company. Trump was for the most part forgotten by many independents. He's no longer president, the Republicans, no longer in charge.

So whatever is perceived as going wrong ends up at the foot of Biden Desk. The old buck stops here. No president maintains his high approval rating given during the honeymoon phase. Approval ratings usually begin to drop after 100 days, in Biden's case it was six months.

I wonder if not for the withdrawal of Afghanistan if Biden and company might not still be flying high today. If independents would still be more concerned with Trump than what Biden is doing or not doing. Probably not, something else would have poked up their head to bring attention from Trump to Biden.

As an aside, I'll add this, I think and have always thought congressmen and senators should represent the people of their district and state first and foremost, always. The political party they belong to can come in second or third or further down the line.But don't worry, once Manchin is gone, I'm sure West Virginia will elect an extreme right wing Republican to replace him. He won't count anymore to give the Democrats the majority. The Democrats better enjoy Manchin while they can. He can't last and won't.

Manchin being a Democrat does put them in the majority, but does little good if he won't vote for the Democrats major agenda. And it's especially obnoxious when you consider that agenda would do his constituents a lot of good, and cost them very little. Blue states like California and New York would end up paying for the 3.5 trillion dollar bill. Why is he resisting all these great things for his people back home?

Manchin is a DINO.

Manchin represents a solid red, conservative state. You can't expect him to act and vote like a California or New York liberal. Manchin is the only reason the Democrats control the senate, be thankful for him or you'd be putting up with the GOP in control and Mitch McConnell as senate majority leader. Biden and or the progressive wing's agenda would be dead in its track.

I’ve been studying the numbers as is my habit. I discovered, actually I knew we have an anomaly that is out of historical norms. It’s I never gave it a thought. I should have caught it long before now.

Here’s the anomaly, Biden’s overall job approval has dropped 8 points since 1 Aug, the right track direction of the country has dropped 10 points as has Biden job approval on immigration and handling of the economy. On COVID, Biden has dropped 11 points since 1 Aug. Biden’s disapproval on the above issues has risen correspondently. He’s below water on all of them.

The anomaly, the generic congressional ballot. It stood at 48-41 back on 1 Aug, a 7-point advantage for the Democrats. Today, the generic congressional ballot stands at 44-41, still in favor of the Democrats. Although the Democrats have dropped 4 points, the Republicans haven’t gained a single point. That is the anomaly. Historical, a drop in the president’s approval numbers, overall, the economy etc. is reflected in the generic congressional ballot. It isn’t. A 10-point drop in all the issues above should be reflected in a general way in the generic congressional ballot also. One expects, at least historically that the Republicans would have the lead at a minimum. Not still be 3 points behind.

I don’t know why this is. Other than saying that anything dealing with Trump, historical norms have been tossed out the window. It could be the generic congressional ballot is just slow in catching up with the other issues that are polled constantly. That in a week or two, the congressional ballot will fall into line with the other issue polls. Then again, maybe not. Taking a SWAG, it might be a majority of the voters don’t like the way Biden and company have been doing their job or jobs lately. But are reluctant to put Trump Republicans back in charge of congress. That is just a SWAG. It could be just a hopeful SWAG or there may be something to it. Regardless, I’ll continue to watch and study the numbers. Any ideas?

Seems like a fair guess. Voters rejected the divisive government of Donald Trump but also aren't so keen on the kumbaya attitude expressed in the new government. Marxist theory insists that balance will eventually be achieved. We're just watching the scales tilt back and forth between people and money.

Money has always been in control, the people are just beginning to gain some ground.

That might well be true but he represents a majority of all Americans at this time.

The simplest and most obvious answer is to give Manchin everything he wants. I think he might well represent what is actually doable without violent partisan over-reaction. Give him what he wants then build on that wherever you can.

If the Dems are to win they have to set the conversation and stick to it. Same with their mouths - they gotta watch their mouths and stick with making it all about the Republicans. They should do this if they really want to win (I remain not too sure about that). The Republicans win because they do that and they march in lock step . The Dems need Republican disasters to win (historically speaking). Its really time for the Dems to actually try to win and go after the Republicans with consistent arguments as, so far, their system of depending on taking over a financially disastrous nation is somehow winning instead of taking on a job they get absolutely no credit for (because they haven't the capacity to toot their own horn).

I fear for us all after the election next year. The Dems simply don't seem to have the vigor or will to actually get out and do battle with the Republicans as they are too busy doing that to each other. As an anti-Trump person that considers that the Republicans are not exactly right in the head a lot of the time. On the other side they watch the Dems wound themselves at the slightest opportunity and think that them that vote Democratic are also not exactly right in the head. On reflection EVERYBODY seems to qualify in that one and THAT is a bit scary!

I keep hearing and reading pundits claiming Trump supporters are moving away from him, but I don't buy it. Based on my unscientific, nonrandom, data set of Trump lovers around me, I would say they all are still just as enthralled and supporting of Trump. They all know the election was stolen, covid is a hoax, and Hillary just ate a baby.

I also hear reporters talk about how behind closed doors elected Republicans talk about dumping Trump. Sure I believe it, but I also know the reality they are facing. The base will not tolerate Trump denigration. They have no choice but to publicly support Trump to continue receiving the support of the base.

Weird .... in order to maintain power they have to destroy the very institutions which elected them to power. I think this may be a paradox, but one which has real life implications ... the fall of American Democracy.