Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

I think that everybody is really sick and tired of the Dems trying to make claims and failing each step of the way. Until they actually do something they are failing - that's just the way politics work. The party in power has to do something just not talk about doing something which is, so far, all the Dems have been able to come up with. They are so self interested that they don't seem to have the time to take care of business and that isn't helping them even a little bit.

Their real problem seems to be that they just don't get it and they better start getting over that.

First, let me throw this out there.

Anti-Trump Republicans to back vulnerable Democratic lawmakers in 2022 congressional races

https://www.yahoo.com/news/anti-trump-republicans-back-vulnerable-115315092.html

Greger, Coach potatoes, yes. Independents, yes. swing voters to a certain extent. Swing voters are the ones out of that bunch that actually vote. Who and why most of the time goes unknown. Unless they're actually angry at the party in power, then everyone knows why.

Presidential election and who independents, swing voters vote for is fairly easily to determine. They vote most of the time for the candidate they like as a person the most. This holds True with Biden over Trump, Trump over Clinton, Obama over Romney and McCain, Bush II over Kerry and Gore, Bill Clinton over Dole and Bush I, Bush I over Dukakis, Reagan over Mondale and Carter etc.

Swing voters went for all the winners, sometimes it was close, other times not so close. But going back, independents have for the most part gone to the candidate they liked best as a person.The more likable candidate.

Midterms are difficult to figure. There's no easy category or number to refer to to figure out how'll swing voters, independents, coach potatoes will vote. Although if one looks at the anger level, that usually works.

While doing my morning walk, I was thinking about the anomaly of the Democrats still holding a 3-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot while Biden and the Democrats have dropped an average of 10 points in almost all issue related categories. Below water in all. Anti-Trump Republicans forming an organization to support Democratic congressional candidates could be some of the cause of this anomaly. Some I say, not all. Here it is again in case you missed it.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/anti-trump-republicans-back-vulnerable-115315092.html

I realize when it comes to Trump traditional political conventional wisdom doesn’t apply. There is no historical context when it comes to Trump. 2016 and 2020 were so unique, they amplify that there is nothing conventional or traditional to place them in. Although 2018 was a normal election with normal historical norms and traditions. 2022 seems to be shaping up as another unique election with no historical context, norms or wisdoms.

2016 provided us with the two most disliked major party candidates in our history. Their 36% and 38% favorable set the records for the lowest ever while those two with a 56% and 60% unfavorable and unwanted to become our next president, they were the only two over 50% in this category. Not even Barry Goldwater in 1964 had that low or high in the like and dislike categories. His was 43% favorable, 47% unfavorable.

2020, unique in the fact the Republicans lost the presidency by 7 plus million votes, yet gained 13 house seats, 2 state legislatures and a governor. That just doesn’t happen. It did once, Grover Cleveland in 1884, but he won the presidency by just 56.000 votes and beat Blaine by just 00.6%. 6/10ths of a single percentage point. Not the 4.5% Biden won by.

I suppose one can only chalk all of this up to the Trump factor.

Just one little thing. I believe that the independents don't so much vote for the winners as decide the winners - every time. I think I read that there are more independents than members of each party. I also suspect that the do nothing Dems are not exactly charming the independents.

The main difference between Trump and Clinton was that one of them would have been a capable and compassionate president and the other was obviously a crook.

Madame Clinton is a lot more progressive than folks gave her credit for...or perhaps that's why they hated her. America was robbed of another great president when Al Gore was defeated.
Bernie Sanders was another who never quite got on the ticket.

One day the right person will be in the right place at the right time and we'll get another FDR.

Until then we will suffer with mediocre presidents and weak leaders.

You complain when the Dems try to do things and you complain when they do nothing!

President Biden's agenda is an over-reach, like I said elsewhere...compromise with Manchin and Sinema, pass sh*t and get things rolling. It's the stalemate that has his numbers down. Pass anything at all and they will rise.

I don't know if it is over-reach. Could be in a pragmatic sense. Don't know if this caused a numbers dip ... I don't care. What I do care about is getting something done before the Trumpists take control of the House and maybe the Senate.

Basically I agree with the quoted snippet. Compromise now and create the possibility of winning future elections to continue working for the people. If there are no protections for voting rights in the future, I can guarantee Trumpists will win, and install batsheis crazies in all branches of government.

The federal government does not reside in an ivory tower, eloquently discussing policies, but in a landfill trying to grind out a tasty sausage from refuse.

jgw is correct in my mind. Independents don't necessary vote for winners, they decide winners. Especially nationally. Gallup lists the party strength, those who identify them selves as Republicans and Democrats at 29% each as of 17 Sep 2021 with 41% being independents. Here's the link, party affiliation changes constantly, I keep track of it for use in my forecasts. But its interesting how it goes up and down. All depends on what's happening at the moment.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Also interesting is independents which can be broken down into 3 categories, independents lean Republican, independents lean Democrat and no lean or true independents. For the first time since April 2020, independents lean Republican has taken a slight advantage over independents lean Democratic.

44% of those who profess to be independents as of 17 Sep 2021 lean toward the Republicans, 39% lean toward the Democrats with 17% of independents with no leans, true or pure independents as I call them. Now all this will change come the end of the month when Gallup comes out with another party affiliation poll.

I'm not sure it's the infighting that drove Biden and company's approvals down. Although it can't help. That wasn't happening back in August when those numbers began to tumble. I think the first step on recovery would be for the House to pass the compromised, bipartisan infrastructure bill that the senate has already passed. But there may be economics problems out there beyond Biden's and the Democratic controlled congress ability to do much about. Empty store shelves, a dollar rise a gallon in gas, the cost of food rising etc. Perhaps a lot of this has to do with a lot of people refusing to go back to work.

I think folks are just tired of the pandemic, they want things to go back to normal. That the election of Biden was due to or tied to that hope. There was quite a lot of campaigning against how Trump handled the pandemic, Biden and company said they could do better. But better may not be enough. People in my opinion had way too high expectations in this regard. The end of the pandemic in 6 months. Or so it seemed or was perceived is what Biden and company were offering. Reality is different, but reality, truth etc. really doesn't reverberate in politics. It all boils down to perceptions and expectations. possible or not.

When you have only an incremental majority then incremental change is about all you are going to affect. Pass popular bills, even if they are small ones, to boost your numbers so you can increase your majority and pass bigger bills. Spend too much time arguing over gigantic bills and you will lose your audience.

This is an interim government. It was never meant to do great things.

You think you're pretty goddam smart.... well, I agree.