Yeah Ken, I never envisioned the republicans would nominate someone who's been a Democrat much longer than a republican, who donate huge sums to democrats in his recent past as their nominee in 2016. That completely caught me off guard. A 7-time party switcher who basically believed in nothing but himself, no political ideology or philosophy. He only became a Republican for the third time in 2012. He then won their nomination in 2016. Trump never had much of a history as a Republican.
What you both say is true, but Trump is still a political enigma to me. Which brings me to 2024. The Democrats would really have to blow it for Trump to win. They would have to make independents so angry at them that they would forget their dislike of Trump and vote for him out of anger at the democrats.
Making independents angry at you is a sure way to lose elections. Bill Clinton and the Democrats did that in 1994, Bill lost 54 house seats and 9 senate seats. Obama did it in 2010 losing 63 house seats and 6 senate seats. But the anger was policy related passing things independents didn't want passed. Both recovered nicely to win reelection. But both were well liked as a person, Trump wasn't and isn't. It isn't his policies that independents were against, they were fairly evenly split on those. It was Trump the man. They disliked him as a person. Hence Trump failed to recover after 2018 when independents spanked him with a 44 seat loss in the House and followed that up voting for Biden 54-41.
Then there's always the possibility of the Democrats nominating another Hillary Clinton, a candidate independents disliked more than Trump back in 2016. They didn't like her as a person either.
With independents, strange things can happen. They can vote for Obama 52-44 over McCain and then 2 years later vote 56-37 for republican congressional candidates. That's a 27 point swing, from plus 8 to a minus 19 for the democrats in just 2 years.Then reelect Obama.
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Last edited by perotista; 10/18/21 02:11 AM.
