Okay, But no I don't know how the 2022 midterms will turn out. I won't have factual numbers until redistricting is completed on the house. The generic congressional ballot, being nationwide isn't much use. But it does give you an idea of the percentages that will be racked up nationwide in congressional races. But the house is district by district. We have too many safe districts where one candidate wins 80-20 and usually around 30 more where one party or the other doesn't run a candidate. So the Generic is flawed, but is the best indicator until redistricting is done and I can go through it district by district.
The senate, it's early. A 1-2 seat net pickup for the Dems is I would say the best they can hope for. Now, so far, there are only 8 competitive senate seats, the rest look safe for the party that now holds them. 4 Democratic, NH, GA, AZ and NV, 4 Republican. As of today, PA and WI leans Democratic, FL leans Republican, NC 50-50, pure toss up. Those are the GOP held seats. NH leans leans Republican, GA 50-50 pure tossup, NV and AZ leans Democratic.
But AZ, D Kelly has seen his lead drop from double digits down to 4 over the last 2 months. One could say AZ is trending Republican, but isn't there yet. Independents and Hispanics in AZ are the reason for the drop. One has to remember 37% of Arizona's Hispanics voted for Trump compared to 32% nationwide. It seems more are moving into the GOP column. The border area Hispanics gave Trump more votes than any other state. 41% in Texas, 40% in New Mexico and 37% of Hispanics in Arizona voted for Trump compared to just 22% in New York.
