I'm a house and senate man. I wouldn't bet a dime on any governor's race. Since it's basically a pure tossup today, I have a theory as to why and have had it since August. The results in Virginia may prove that theory correct or it may not.
Virginia governor's race was unique in the fact McAuliffe made his campaign all about Trump. Youngkin distanced himself from Trump, never been seen with him, Youngkin kept his campaign on local issues. In short, Youngkin strategy was to to after independents, he didn't try to fire up the GOP base there. Youngkin took them for granted. McAuliffe was just the opposite, everything was base orientated. He forgot about independents.
When it's all over, I'll compare Virginia's independents last Nov, Biden beat Trump among Virginia's independents 58-37. Today the polls show Youngkin winning independents 52-38 over McAuliffe. The Democrats have a 5 point party affiliation advantage in Virginia. So if Youngkin is to win, he'll need every independent vote he can get. I think Youngkin realized this from the start. Hence his campaign centered around independents instead of the GOP base. That is an unheard of strategy.
If the poll numbers are correct, we don't know that they are. Now that would be one huge swing among independents, from a plus 21 for Biden to a minus 14 for McAuliffe. A 37 point swing. That would be one of the largest swings in history or recent history that is.Although there has been swings as large among independents. They're finicky.
Independents went from a plus 18 fro the Democrats in 2006 to a minus 19 points in 2010. Now that was over a four year time frame. This is just one year. Which if it happens, I'll present my theory. It sure won't be popular on this site. But who cares, as long as I have it right or can be backed up by the numbers.
