Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

Okay, But no I don't know how the 2022 midterms will turn out. I won't have factual numbers until redistricting is completed on the house. The generic congressional ballot, being nationwide isn't much use. But it does give you an idea of the percentages that will be racked up nationwide in congressional races. But the house is district by district. We have too many safe districts where one candidate wins 80-20 and usually around 30 more where one party or the other doesn't run a candidate. So the Generic is flawed, but is the best indicator until redistricting is done and I can go through it district by district.

The senate, it's early. A 1-2 seat net pickup for the Dems is I would say the best they can hope for. Now, so far, there are only 8 competitive senate seats, the rest look safe for the party that now holds them. 4 Democratic, NH, GA, AZ and NV, 4 Republican. As of today, PA and WI leans Democratic, FL leans Republican, NC 50-50, pure toss up. Those are the GOP held seats. NH leans leans Republican, GA 50-50 pure tossup, NV and AZ leans Democratic.

But AZ, D Kelly has seen his lead drop from double digits down to 4 over the last 2 months. One could say AZ is trending Republican, but isn't there yet. Independents and Hispanics in AZ are the reason for the drop. One has to remember 37% of Arizona's Hispanics voted for Trump compared to 32% nationwide. It seems more are moving into the GOP column. The border area Hispanics gave Trump more votes than any other state. 41% in Texas, 40% in New Mexico and 37% of Hispanics in Arizona voted for Trump compared to just 22% in New York.

Greger, your pessimism got me thinking. Dangerous I know. But I figured it was time to do some more numbers checking and comparison. Not using job approval, that only applies to a sitting president. Instead looking at favorable/unfavorable ratings as history has shown folks usually don't vote for someone they dislike. What I found is I may have brushed Trump aside too soon.

Go back to Jan 2021 Biden 54% favorable/42% unfavorable. Trump 37% favorable/59% unfavorable. Those numbers are close to matching the Nov 2020 numbers.

Aug 2021 Biden 51% favorable/46% unfavorable, Trump 40% favorable/56% unfavorable. some change for both, not much though.

25 Oct 2021 Biden 44% favorable/51% unfavorable, Trump 44% favorable/53% unfavorable. Trump's and Biden's number are about even. I knew Biden was dropping, but never considered Trump's would climb.

If those two matched up today in a presidential election, it would be a 50-50 election.

So what about the Generic Congressional Ballot, Polls on the generic congressional ballot didn't begin until May. In May the democrats had a 49-40 lead, in August a 45-41 lead and the democrats lead today, 25 Oct 2021 44-42. Perhaps loss of faith in the democratic controlled congress critters, they dropped from 49 down to 44%. But Republicans congress critter hasn't really risen much, 2 points from 40-42.

I don't think these numbers show a Trump rehabilitation, but more of a disappointment in Biden and company. Especially among independents. I'd say Biden needs a win, the infrastructure bill stalled in the house would be an excellent start.

Lots of good information here. I would suggest one listens to the round table discussion at the end.

We’re Tracking Trump’s And Harris’s Popularity Ahead Of The 2024 Presidential Election. (Yes, It’s Early.)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...024-presidential-election-yes-its-early/

538 is probably my favorite political site. Non-partisan and puts forth information in what is political reality and not just how one side sees it.

Today's election, for those who are interested.

Election Day 2021: Key races to watch

https://www.yahoo.com/news/election-day-2021-races-to-watch-virginia-nj-minneapolis-191657246.html

Funny you should mention today's elections...I was just thinking about it. I'm not even familiar with anything but Virginia

If I was a bettin' man right now I'd drop a ten spot on the Democrat. But not a C-note...y'know?

I'm a house and senate man. I wouldn't bet a dime on any governor's race. Since it's basically a pure tossup today, I have a theory as to why and have had it since August. The results in Virginia may prove that theory correct or it may not.

Virginia governor's race was unique in the fact McAuliffe made his campaign all about Trump. Youngkin distanced himself from Trump, never been seen with him, Youngkin kept his campaign on local issues. In short, Youngkin strategy was to to after independents, he didn't try to fire up the GOP base there. Youngkin took them for granted. McAuliffe was just the opposite, everything was base orientated. He forgot about independents.

When it's all over, I'll compare Virginia's independents last Nov, Biden beat Trump among Virginia's independents 58-37. Today the polls show Youngkin winning independents 52-38 over McAuliffe. The Democrats have a 5 point party affiliation advantage in Virginia. So if Youngkin is to win, he'll need every independent vote he can get. I think Youngkin realized this from the start. Hence his campaign centered around independents instead of the GOP base. That is an unheard of strategy.

If the poll numbers are correct, we don't know that they are. Now that would be one huge swing among independents, from a plus 21 for Biden to a minus 14 for McAuliffe. A 37 point swing. That would be one of the largest swings in history or recent history that is.Although there has been swings as large among independents. They're finicky.

Independents went from a plus 18 fro the Democrats in 2006 to a minus 19 points in 2010. Now that was over a four year time frame. This is just one year. Which if it happens, I'll present my theory. It sure won't be popular on this site. But who cares, as long as I have it right or can be backed up by the numbers.

McAuliffe said something to the effect that parents had no right to tell the schools what to do and that just might assure his loss. If he wins it will be a miracle. The parents have come out in force and it was a typically not thought out thought of yet another Democrat. I have said this before - THEY DON'T WANT TO WIN! They do it almost every day. They have no real message, they spend all their time battling with each other instead of the opposition, and they REALLY love to run their mouths with little or no thought. They don't seem to understand that it doesn't matter what they meant. What does matter is how it sounded. Now add in that they simply don't seem to want to do anything! Biden started out great then that stopped and nothing new has been done and it looks as if that just might continue.

The only thing that might bail him out are the early votes before he felt it necessary to piss off every parent in the state.

I simply don't get it. If anybody can actually explain their behavior please let everybody else know why!

jgw, most governor races are unique to the state and have little to do with national politics. Massachusetts and Maryland have elected Republican governors and Kansas a Democratic one. Youngkin kept his campaign about local issues, McAuliffe tried to make it national and all about Trump. I don't know who'll win, but I do know going by the poll numbers, it seems independents for the most part have switched from voting democratic last year to republican this year.

I wouldn't, I don't put much stock in governor races being a harbinger of what will happen in the midterms. They're pretty much local. What I have done is look at the 66 redrawn districts for next years midterms. The rest haven't been drawn yet. But out of the 66, you have just 3 that look competitive, all three are Democrats.

The senate remains basically the same, GOP held PA and WI leaning Democratic, GOP NC a pure tossup. Democratic held NH now leaning Republican, Democratic GA, another pure tossup. Democratic held AZ could join the competitive list as could Republican held FL.

As for foot in mouth, yeah, the democrats seem fairly good at that. Here's another good article from Politico.

Not it: Democrats dodge blame for stalled agenda as McAuliffe teeters

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/02/dems-blame-stalled-agenda-mcauliffe-518439

Heh! I had heard some rumblings about that, wasn't really aware of Youngkin's strategy.

Smart. And it might very well work; McCauliffe mighta jumped the gun on the anti-Trump strategy but if Youngkin wins, it could serve as a shot across the bow for the Democrats in next year's elections.

What if Trump is a non-starter in 2022 but Dems make the race all about him...?

At any rate, his attempt to nationalize a gubernatorial race was stupid, and if that's the best he can do then perhaps the Republican is the right choice for Virginia. Local government should not be about Washington.

Local governments have actual governing to do!

In my estimation, people are sick of hearing about Trump. I figured that would play favorably into Democrat races in 2022...I'm starting to feel a red wave forming because Democrats are the only ones talking about Trump while the economy is going to sh*t.

I don't see any red wave. Not yet anyway. My 7-15 GOP House pickup stands until more redistricting is completed as does the 1-2 Democratic senate seat gain.

One has to remember the gerrymandering wars, so far the Democrats have taken basically 7 competitive seats and made them solid Democratic seats, the GOP has 1 which so far is a plus 6 for the Democrats. What this means for 2022 is that there will be less competitive races for the Republicans to switch.

What I noticed beginning in August, since you touched on it. Is that more and more independents have assigned Trump to the dust bin of history. It took 6 months, from inauguration day until the end of July for independents to realize Trump is no longer president, no longer in charge. He's gone, ancient history so to speak.

August was a pivotal month. That's when independents finally moved on from Trump to focus on Biden and company. August was the last time McAuliffe had a double digit lead. It all coincides. Trump is no longer important to independents. It's what is happening today that is. That brings me back to empty shelves in some stores and rising prices. Especially gas prices and food.

When gas rises from 2,00 a gallon up to 3.30, people notice, when a loaf of bread rises from 2.00 to 3.00 people notice. No or limited cleaning supplies, people notice, the price of meat rising 25%, people notice.

When Virginia is all done, I want to see how independents voted. That will either prove, if not prove back up my theory, assumption that Trump has ceased being important to independents or I'll fall flat on my face. There's a real possibility, independents may not give an owl's hoot about the 1-6 hearings when they occur. Ancient history, Trump's gone, no longer in charge. Maybe.