Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

Watched the Braves become World Series champs last night. This AM I'm shocked New Jersey not called. Murphy had a 10 point lead in the polls and there're a million more Democrats in NJ than Republicans. Murphy should have waltzed. Even if Murphy pulls this out, NJ is much more a shocker than Virginia which everyone expected to be close.

As for Virginia, I was right that it boiled down to the independent vote. Remember Biden won Virginia independents last year 58-37, McAuliffe lost them last night 54-45. That a 30 point swing from independents voting Democratic a year ago to voting Republican this year. From a plus 21 to a minus 9. I would say Trump is no longer a factor among independents, at least a majority of them. More bad news out of Virginia, it seems the Republicans will also regain control of the House of delegates, A double whammy for Democrats in Virginia.

I don't know what Murphy did wrong if he did anything wrong. NJ was totally off my radar screen. We all know McAuliffe campaign against Trump and not Youngkin. He tried to make the race national. Then McAuliffe put his foot in his mouth with his Parents remark. That may have been the turning point. Youngkin strategy was to campaign to win independents, he took his base, the GOP base for granted. I never seen that done before, but it worked. Youngkin knew Democrats in Virginia had a 5 point party affiliation advantage over the Republican Party. He knew he had to win independents or lose the election. Apparently McAuliffe didn't give independents a second thought.

Since independents made up 31% of those who actually voted yesterday, winning them by 9 points was enough to overcome the Democrats party affiliation advantage. I've always said nationally, independents decide elections. In Virginia, independents decided this one also.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0

I couldn't find any exit polls on NJ, but I suspect it was independents that made that race so close. I'm also fairly sure Murphy will pull it out. Last night, my Atlanta Braves were the winner, politics irrelevant. With the Braves WS champs, now it's time to start paying attention again.

I'd remember that governor races are usually decided on local issues. Although some will vote in support or against the party who holds the presidency. Although with a year to go before the midterms, I'd say last night results have nothing to do with what will happen a year from now. But last nights results shows folks aren't happy with Biden and company. Plenty of time to fix that, but somehow I don't think Biden and company will take heed of this warning.

I also think this shows that Trump isn't on most independents radar screen anymore. But Biden and company are.

Cue right wing hippy punching blaming for the loss in 5..4..3..2..

Dems can blame whatever they want, fact is Dems ignored independents and fed red meat to the base in Virginia. Dems probably lapped it up and are even now planning an audit to prove voter fraud.

Stop The Steal!

LOL, okay. In my long life, Virginia is the first election where I seen a candidate actually go after the independent vote. All others have been about firing up the base. Perhaps there's a lesson here other than to try to nationalize a governors race.

I can't remember an election where independents were targeted by one side. Perhaps you can? Targeting independents makes sense to me, after all I've been harping on that for decades. Maybe not targeting independents, but choosing candidates that can attract the independent vote. Stay away from candidates that peeve them off or are totally disliked by independents.

Its interesting. I have noticed that the Democratic talking heads of TV all seem to be the adults in the room and are all singing the same songs. Dems should watch their mouths, stop the public internal fights, pass the infrastructure legislation as soon as possible and actually have a message!

I have expressed most of that in my more wishful thinking thoughts. They simply have to start behaving like they all belong to the same organization. I am not convinced that is even possible. It would be a good thing if they could. So far, today, they have ignored all that and, instead, moved to proving that they are capable of pointing the finger with the best of them.

If they can't put a stop to the running of mouths, inability to work together, etc. next year's election is going to be a Democratic slaughter. I guess the children need to play - even them that are supposed to be growed up.

As Benjamin Franklyn said; "We must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately."

I think we've reached an agreement!

But it's more about the economy than the running of mouths. Interesting that the talking heads you watch all seem to agree with you...

Red Wave just beginning to form up. Biden could still turn it around...LOL What am I saying...his ineptitude is plain for all to see.

He's not going to turn it around. You can't say I didn't warn you that Biden would screw everything up for Democrats.

I've said this before, whether on this site or another. Politics is the art of the possible. What is possible boils down to numbers. Numbers should tell the party in power what is and what isn't. So far, I'd say the Democrats ignored their numbers. 222-213 and 50-50 plus VP Harris should let the Democrats know what is and isn't possible. Right now they're acting like they have a 270-165 margin in the house and perhaps a 58-42 advantage in the senate. They don't and I'd say it's time the Democrats realize that.

I agree, the infrastructure bill should be passed immediately. The rest can be put on hold and worked on later. I'd be careful here considering the numbers, the democrats could end up with nothing. I'm all about numbers if you haven't figured that out already.

The Democrats in spite of the numbers could work everything out. That is in the realm of possibility. But the longer this goes on, the less chance of that happening. All in all, I agree with you.

Biden back in 2020 remained basically hidden, staying out of the lime light letting Trump hog the spot light. By doing so, Biden let Trump continually remind folks why they disliked Trump and hence ended up voting for Biden. Today, it's the Republicans staying hidden and basically silent. Letting the Democrats in congress have the spot light with all their squabbles and infighting. Sometimes keeping a low profile is good political strategy.

Independents may be emerging as the common sense side of things. I always assume there is a way out of this tangle we've gotten ourselves in. Right now both parties have abandoned reality.

Yes Greger, that's why I'm a swing voter. I think independents don't want Trump. But independents don't have that aversion to other Republicans. Last night proved that, also did the 2020 election when the GOP gained 13 house seats, 2 state legislatures and a governor all the while spanking Trump big time in the presidential.

One could take 2020 as a total rejection of Trump which it was, at least by independents. But not a rejection of Republicans considering the GOP gains down ballot along with last night. To take 2020 as a mandate for the Democrats with Biden winning by 7 plus million votes while the Democrats lost the down ballot offices is a mistake in my book. It wasn't a mandate, but a rejection. At least in my eyes.

Now what do the Democrats need to do for the future, speaking of the midterms and not policy wise. I'd say they need to realize independents are not in the Trumphobia mode anymore. They need to get the infrastructure bill passed. They need to look at the moderate democratic house members in swing districts and need to help them out the best they can. Most progressives are from safe districts, no need to worry about reelection there. The Democrats need to realize a net loss of just 5 seats gives the GOP the house. Independents aren't on the progressive band wagon. They never were when considering the down ballot results from 2020. Deluding themselves that the independents are is plain nonsense.

It may not matter, it may be past the time to save the house, but there's always the senate which has always look good for the dems. No big gains, but hanging on to it with a gain of a seat or two is possible.

Perhaps it's time to learn from Youngkin. Target independents which may mean putting some of the more progressive legislation on hold. The democrats need to establish their goal here. Move their agenda through slowly even if that means taking a few steps more toward the center or jerk far left thinking that will cure their dilemma when confronting independents.

The Democrats might be successful in passing both bills which would make progressives happy, but probably would lose independent support which could mean a loss of both chambers next year making Biden a lame duck. Which wouldn't bode well to 2024. My advice, take the bird in the hand, then try to placate and attract independents back to voting democratic even if that means moving toward the center. This is something most democrats don't want to hear.

That's it in a nutshell. I expect by 2024 Trump, Biden, McConnell, Pelosi et al will be aging out of the system, fresh(er) faces and fresher policies will slowly begin to break up this logjam of an old farts convention.

More things will become possible in the upcoming decade. Many more things.

Some good things, some bad things, time will tell.