Greger, I still don't see a red wave, still sticking with my 7-15 seat GOP pickup. One reason is 99 districts have now been redrawn. Only 4 are in the competitive column. What each party has done is take their incumbents in competitive district and made them safe, if not safe, at least likely. Of the 4 competitive districts,3 are held by democrats and 1 is an open seat, Colorado's new district.
Senate as of today, it still looks like the Dems pick up GOP held PA and WI. NC a pure tossup and FL leans Republican. Of the 4 Democratic competitive senate seats, NH leans Rep, GA pure tossup, NV and AZ lean Democratic. Net pick up of 1 seat for the Dems. The rest look fairly safe for whichever party now holds them.
But with a year to go, anything can happen and probably will. Now wearing my hat as a political strategist, the Democrats need to address the supply and demand along with rising prices and the beginning of empty shelves in some stores problem much more than any legislation when it comes to the midterms. If this isn't fixed, a red wave could develop as Bill Clinton once said, "It's the economy, Stupid." Biden and company approval on the economy has dropped from 53% approval down to 40%.
If you're a partisan progressive, you want the BBB passed. If you're a strategist, you don't care. Strategy wise, passing it or not becomes irrelevant. Irrelevant as long as Biden's and company approval rating on the economy is at 40% nationwide, all adults. Which among independents stands at 33% approval, 56% disapproval.
Virgina, independents went to Biden last year 57-38, but went to Youngkin this week 54-45. In 2020 Biden won independents 54-41, but independents went to Democratic congressional candidates 49-48, to Republican senate candidates 51-48 and to Republican governor candidates 52-46.
Even as a political strategist, pass the BBB, it can't hurt and may help. But if supply and demand, empty shelves and rising prices especially in the price of a gallon of gas isn't brought under control. Well, it could be a bad midterm.
