Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

I don't think you know my politics. Perhaps I don't have any, at least in a partisan way. My keen interest is political strategy and forecasting elections. Numbers play a huge part there. Numbers like it or not also play a huge part in what can and can't be passed.

now I agree congress critters are in there for the most part to make money. A lot go in as rich, come out as extremely rich. Both parties owe their hearts and souls to corporations, wall street firms, lobbyist, special interests and mega money donors.This also includes Democrats along with Republicans. Fact is corporations and wall street have donated about 2-1 over the last 5 years to the Democratic Party. That's where both parties get their tens and at times hundreds of millions of dollar to run their campaigns and organizations. Fact is in 2020 43% of the 14 billion dollars spent came from individual mega rich money donors. As for the stock market, you have this.



Retail traders follow Nancy Pelosi's husband's stock moves to find winners


https://news.yahoo.com/retail-trade...ock-moves-to-find-winners-163943788.html

I view things from an outsider point of view since I really dislike both major parties. I also let numbers talk to me letting me know what the public at large is thinking and how all Americans, not just democrats nor just republicans look at these things.

I'll stand by my statement that the loss of 13 house seats last year has really hurt the Democrats in their attempt to get their legislation passed. You may think the opposite which is okay. I also think last year election was more an rejection of Trump than any endorsement of Biden and or the Democratic Party since the Democrats did pretty poorly down ballot. If last year wasn't a presidential, the Republicans would be crowing about the overall results and the Democrats weeping in their beer.

Biden had no coat tails. He won because he wasn't Trump. Almost any other Democrat would have done. Biden just happened to be a safe bet to defeat Trump which was the Democrats number one objective. Losing down ballot was irrelevant to them then and I think it is now. Or they would know what is possible and what isn't.

That my opinion on this.

Biden is in the senate. Thru his proxy Joe Manchin.
The larded up infrastructure bill was always his real goal. Manchin is playing his role in this stagecrafted bait and switch.
‘He’s FDR!’ Remember that build back better propaganda being repeated everywhere in the press?
It was always about corporate giveaways and crushing any left alternatives.
It’s what right wing Dems have done for decades.

Mind you, I’m hoping for a complete wipeout in 2022. I’m down with them passing infrastructure only. It’s drawing clear, obvious distinctions than I haven’t seen in decades with people only marginally political. The sooner the party of progressive movement graveyards collapses the better.

I know you’ve expressed a desire to see infrastructure passed. Every right in the world to do so. You keep mentioning your numbers to reenforce your desire for infrastructure passage. Is that accurate?
What’s polling in the infrastructure as high with the public as paid family leave or lowering prescription drug pricing? Just curious.

As I said, McNamara was relying on numbers to form strategy. An obvious example of numbers failing to capture the reality on the ground. The fall of Afghani forces to ISIS would be another numbers informing strategy failure.

To be honest, I don’t think numbers predict policies anyway. Doubt you could either. Policy is also strategy, no? There are a number of detailed studies going back to the dawn of polling proving this. Broad popular support does not produce policy. The exception is when it coincides with the ruling classes goals. Raises some uncomfortable questions on the nature of what the purpose our so called democracy actually serves.

Interesting to see the aggregate numbers of shares and future trades. I would bet that’s more predictive of any policy than any electoral strategy formed around polls.

Wonder what poll numbers Derr was looking at in Jersey. That’s hilarious!

Biden was a corporate suit rebound candidate, I agree. After generating 4 years of red hysteria, stampeding liberals with spook stories in the press got them into the voting booth to vote for a rapidly declining Corporate Dem. I agree with you there, antiTrump was the only strategy, nothing else would fundamentally change. Sad to see the enthusiasm of so many engaging and propagating that nonsense. It did work though, so it was a successful strategy then. Funny watching em in Virginia trying to play it again. That false flag tiki torch photo op was a howler. Almost as funny as Derr’s win in New Jersey, unseating a Dem incumbent house speaker with sofa cushion change. Wonder what the numbers were that Derr was looking at that Sweeny didn’t?

Everything is irrelevant now. The House passed the infrastructure bill last night by a 228-206 vote. Now that wasn't hard. It only became hard because different democratic factions wanted to make it hard.

You have the first article.

"Roads, transit, internet: What's in the infrastructure bill"

and once you finish with that one, the second article is right below it.

"Dems end deadlock, House hands Biden infrastructure win"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/roads-transit-internet-whats-infrastructure-044017277.html

Now that you have the bird in the hand, you can start on working on one of the bird's in the bush. The important thing here is Biden and Democrats finally have a win. Now we'll see if the pundits were right or if I was right on Biden's and company's approval numbers.

It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood.

That's a good thing because it's exactly what you're going to get. At least in the House.
Pero thinks the Senate will stand for two more years, but I expect that and the Whitehouse will return to Republican control in 2024.

Then we'll have 8 years of Republican control after these last two failed presidencies.

Perhaps it's for the best. Democrats have failed.

I would add that we’ve, more or less, had unbroken right wing control for forty years. Getting rid of one of the two factions would be a a small step in another direction. Of course we could also go full mask off fascist too. At least there won’t be any pretense of an opposition.
On the other hand, both factions need each other to carry water and provide cover for the one other.

I have little doubt that their are R donors aplenty toasting this infrastructure package. They just got a Manchin payday.

Now we wait and see how ‘committed’ the Dems are to passing anything benefitting people beyond the boardrooms and shareholders.

Greger, I still don't see a red wave, still sticking with my 7-15 seat GOP pickup. One reason is 99 districts have now been redrawn. Only 4 are in the competitive column. What each party has done is take their incumbents in competitive district and made them safe, if not safe, at least likely. Of the 4 competitive districts,3 are held by democrats and 1 is an open seat, Colorado's new district.

Senate as of today, it still looks like the Dems pick up GOP held PA and WI. NC a pure tossup and FL leans Republican. Of the 4 Democratic competitive senate seats, NH leans Rep, GA pure tossup, NV and AZ lean Democratic. Net pick up of 1 seat for the Dems. The rest look fairly safe for whichever party now holds them.

But with a year to go, anything can happen and probably will. Now wearing my hat as a political strategist, the Democrats need to address the supply and demand along with rising prices and the beginning of empty shelves in some stores problem much more than any legislation when it comes to the midterms. If this isn't fixed, a red wave could develop as Bill Clinton once said, "It's the economy, Stupid." Biden and company approval on the economy has dropped from 53% approval down to 40%.

If you're a partisan progressive, you want the BBB passed. If you're a strategist, you don't care. Strategy wise, passing it or not becomes irrelevant. Irrelevant as long as Biden's and company approval rating on the economy is at 40% nationwide, all adults. Which among independents stands at 33% approval, 56% disapproval.

Virgina, independents went to Biden last year 57-38, but went to Youngkin this week 54-45. In 2020 Biden won independents 54-41, but independents went to Democratic congressional candidates 49-48, to Republican senate candidates 51-48 and to Republican governor candidates 52-46.

Even as a political strategist, pass the BBB, it can't hurt and may help. But if supply and demand, empty shelves and rising prices especially in the price of a gallon of gas isn't brought under control. Well, it could be a bad midterm.

I believe that rejecting Trump doesn't mean an embrace of the Democrats. I think folks are just fed up with the entire mess. They finally got around to voting, and passing, the infrastructure bill. As far as I can tell the response is pretty simple, ie. "its about time!". Had they done that before their numbers would have gone up. Actually Biden has not done bad, and things are getting better. Wages are up, the infrastructure thing is law, employment is up, etc. The problem is that its been done under on ongoing Democratic battle with itself which has gone on, and on, and on while our president pretends he is still a member of congress.

Anyway, they have a bit of a chance now and, given how the Dems behave, that's all they got and they will work, very hard to screw it all up. For the Dems it seems its ALL about them. I continue to believe they are going to pay the price and that's a shame.

I guess my main problem, with the Dems, is that they have flat out ignored almost all good advice to do with stuff like messaging, explaining what they are doing, and actually trying to win an election. I have often wondered why they haven't hired an advertising firm to train them up on their jobs when it comes to communication.

Since I've been saying ever since the Nov 2020 election it was nothing more than a rejection of Trump, but not an embrace of the Democratic Party or their agenda, I'll agree with you. That is if one looks at the whole ballot and not just the presidential.

I wonder if it was coincidence that Biden won by 7 million votes, if going by the exit polls, there were 7 million ticket splitters voting for Biden, but Republican down ballot. I think not.

Yeah, I'd say the Democrats need to come up with their own message beside just being anti-Trump. Anti-Trump isn't going to work anymore. Most independents have placed Trump on the trash heap of history. He's no longer in charge, no longer president. Biden is and the Democrats control congress. That was McAuliffe problem, his anti-Trump campaign, rhetoric really fired up the Democrats. But independents ignored it, they were interested in local issues. Youngkin addressed them, McAuliffe didn't.

Live and learn, forget Trump and come up with a positive message and vision for middle America. Do something to get working class America back on your side, the Democrats have lost a lot of this group to the GOP.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/briefing/democrats-election-working-class-voters.html

The right wing grey lady tries to do class politics.
The best selling book ‘What’s the matter with Kansas’ was written by the same author who wrote ‘Listen Liberal’ and his most recent ‘The people? No!’
Not even a mention of the authors name. Frank’s done a good analysis into the realignment of the two political parties after the break up of the Keynesian consensus. His latest explores the history of left populist political movements in the US, post civil war.
Sanders campaign attempts and defeats are just a few of many in a long line of defeats suffered by the left from the reactionary right wing parties.

It’s an interesting time to see class become a subject of discussion in politics. Ironically, the cheap platitudes given out during this pandemic, as a substitute for real material compensation for the work required, has helped highlight the contradictions of our society and may have awakened class consciousness beyond the failed Sanders campaign. Who’s getting the cheese and who’s getting the shaft has been thrown into bright relief and I have yet to find a working class Trumper happy about the tax cuts given to the rich ruling classes.

But that type of conversation falls outside the reenforced boundaries of identity politics. Dem, Republican, Independents etc

Even VOX is doing class analysis!…
The problem with America