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I've always looked on Trump as an Egotistical opportunist. But to be fair to ma_Repubican. I could never get past his obnoxious, uncouth, raunchy personality to actually see what his policies were if he had any.

I always wondered if Trump didn't have presidential ambitions for quite a long time. I noticed the 7 time party switcher always seemed to belong to the party that didn't hold the presidency, During Reagan, Trump was a Democrat. During Bill Clinton he became a Republican. In 2000, Trump joined my tiny Reform party to run for its presidential nomination. I bet not many know about that.

Then during G.W. Bush, he became a Democratic again. Obama, Trump switched to being a Republican from 2009-2011, then he became an independent 2011-12 and finally a Republican for the third time in 2012.

I can't really remember anything Trump did outside of his tax cuts. No major legislation. Just a bunch of name calling and throwing of temper tantrums via twitter.

That's a harsh assessment coming from our pretty conservative numbers guy, but it pretty much sums the man up. No loyalty to anyone or anything but demands it from all around him.

An assh*le.

But that's neither here nor there because he's gone and he ain't coming back.

Our problem now is Joe Biden. And inflationary prices before the holidays.

That's what's gonna set the stage for the 2022 debacle.

Trump or Ma_Republican??

TaT

Trump is the egotistical opportunist.

Perhaps Greger. I know a few folks who voted for Biden, who are dissatisfied with him. Who have changed their view of him from favorable or approval of his overall job performance to unfavorable or disapproveal of the job Biden is doing. But they wouldn't change their vote for him against Trump. Neither would I. Still, as the numbers guy, the 10-15 GOP seat pick up in the house hasn't changed since the beginning of August and the 2-3 seat democratic pickup in the senate has remained steady with the one change of NH from a GOP pickup to a Democratic hold. Only because Chris Sununu decided to run for a 4th term as governor instead of challenging Maggai Hassan for NH senate seat.

Now if the price of gas continues to rise, which Biden is getting the blame, along with the rise in food prices and pretty much everything you could be correct. You may get your red wave. But as of today, no red wave.

As an after thought on that, it just might be that Manchin and Sinema are the ones saving the democrats from the red wave. Here's Biden problem with independents, 64% think Bien hasn't paid enough attention to the country's most important problems vs only 36% that say he has. Which equaties to rising prices and some empty shelves or in other words, the economy. 38% of independents say the economy is their most important issue facing this country, rising prices, inflation, etc. in second place is COVID at 18% followed by immigration at 13%.

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2021/images/11/08/rel7a.-.politics.pdf

As I said on another site or in another post here, I think how many seats the democrats lose in the midterms depends on how high the price of a gallon of gas rises. Not on the BBB or anything else. Biden is getting a lot of blame from gas going from 2.00 to 3.50 a gallon. That has affected his approval/disapproval rating, especiallly on the economy with an all adult, nationwide rating of 38.7% approval, 53.9% disapproval.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_biden_job_approval_economy-7321.html

Why?
Why does Biden get the blame for high gas/food/inflation prices?

WHY?

Well, I'll tell you why...because the political Right has invested literally HUNDREDS of millions if not billions in creating an alternate universe where only Democratic prezzies get the blame for these things.

Same as it ever was...same as it was during Obama.



So if you're counting on the ignorance of the Right, and not making so much as a peep to correct the record, you might as well say you agree.
But it doesn't change the fact that presidents don't control the price of gasoline because they can't.
It also doesn't change the fact that the Right encourages and promotes IGNORANCE as a family value for Americans.

No Jeffery it's because independents have lost faith in Biden. They aren't really influenced so much by partisan hatred in either direction. He didn't advance his agenda for an entire year and he didn't keep the economy under control.

You may have heard that old adage about "it's the economy..."

Rising prices are a part of that economy, Trump didn't get reelected because of the economy.

Carter didn't get reelected because of the economy. Bush 1 didn't get reelected because of the economy.

And who was that other guy...? Herbert Hoover! He really didn't get reelected. Wasn't their fault, not any of it. They were innocent men, every one of them

It wasn't a right-wing conspiracy then or now. It's just the normal ebb and flow of politics, power, and money.

The Red Wave is still a bit of a chimera at this point.

But what if things get worse? What if fuel prices top $4Bucks?

Lamb stew meat is $16.49 a pound.

Word on the street is the shelves will empty fast come Christmas.

Americans aren't patient. they start ranting and raving and calling each other names. They get mad at the party in power and they vote against it when elections roll around.

Pero, your predictions might be right on. Though there may be a few surprises between now and then, to skew the numbers slightly one way or another.

The real red wave is coming in 2024 when the Senate and the Whitehouse fall. I'd like to see Biden succeed. But what keeps coming up in my Magic 8 Ball for 2024, no matter how I shake it is a Harris Buttigieg campaign button...

Jeffrey, as long as presidents take credit for a good economy, they'll get blamed when it turns sour. The economy is like the weather, no one controls it. It just happens. If a president, government had any control over the economy, we'd have all good times and no bad time. Always up and never down.

But presidents love to take credit for something they have no control over. By doing so, they'll get blamed.

there's no hatred among independents for Biden, most of them anyway. They still like him as a person, but not the job he's doing. With Trump, independents never liked him at all as a person. The dislike factor for Trump hardly varried from around the 60% range.The question asked is whether you agree or disagree with his policies, do you like or disliked Trump or Biden as a person. Now independents who dislike Biden as a person is at 38% today, up from 31% in Nov 2020 when he beat Trump. Trump was at 61% dislike last Nov when Biden won independents 54-41 over Trump.

This is important, when things go bad as they are now for Biden, he can recover. Independents still like him, the man, the person, it's just his job he's doing they don't like. Trump couldn't recover, he was dead, way too many disliked him as a person. even when things were going good, He was still disliked as a man, the person, the individual.

There's no hatred here for Biden, It's simple in independents eyes, Biden isn't tackling what they perceive is this nation's number one problem It isn't the BBB in they eyes, it paying 3.50 for a gallon of gas instead of 2.00. It's paying 3.00 instead of 2.00 for a loaf of bread. It some empty shelves in stores. They don't care who's fault it is, all they know is that Biden is president now and he's not doing a thing about it. Biden is stuck on the BBB instead of trying to bring inflation under control and get the price of gas back down below 3.00.

As Bill Clinton once said, "It's the economy, stupid." All these others things mean little to nothing if prices continue to rise and more shelves become empty.

Again, no hatred here. Just folks looking at their wallet. Remember independents aren't political junkies. They rarely pay much attention if any to politics until an election nears. They're not affiliated with either party, they're basically non-partisans. Most fall ideological wise somewhere in-between the two major parties or they are split, agreeing with the democrats on some issues, opposing Democrats on other issues and the same with the Republican party, agreeing with them on some issues, opposing them on others. But for the most part are indifferent to most issues. Unless it hits them in the pocket book.

Presidents take credit for a good economy, presidents get blamed for a bad one. Quite simple really. But no hate.

My forecasts are based on today's numbers as that is all I have to work with. As in if the election were held today, this is what would happen. Tomorrow the numbers could change and so too would my forecast.

So as of today, 11 Nov 2021, I see no red wave for 2022. 2024, I haven't even gave it a thought. Except to look at todays numbers which don't look good for Harris. But a lot can change between now and then. There will be several unforeseen major events that will effect what happens both in 2022 and 24. If the economy is going great guns in 2024, perhaps even Harris can win.

I look at the favorable/unfavorable numbers, the like/dislike numbers as a person, the direction of the country, right track/wrong track and at how independents perceive the candidates and political parties. I also keep Gallup at my figer tips for party affiliation. Then its the rest of the polls. For 2022, here's an important number I keep track of. Independents view of the major parties, only 26% today have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, 24% a favorable view of the Republican Party. Almost even. But go back to 1 Aug 2021 when thing started going south for the Democrats, the Democratic party was viewed favorably by independents at 38% vs. 26% for the Republican Party.

If the Democrats want independents back on board, bring the price of a gallon of gas back down. Over 4.00, yes then the democrats are in big doo doo to use an old G.H.W. Bush phrase. They can hang it up.