Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Gerrymandering

I agree that once the GOP has the presidency and the senate, they'll end the filibuster then if the Democrats don't do it before that. As for the SCOTUS, the Republicans used the gift then ex-senate majority leader Harry Reid gave them, the nuclear option. Reid and company received a short term political gain, but have lost big long term. Without the gifting of the nuclear option, Kavanaugh and Barrett would have required 60 votes for cloture, votes they could have never received. One could say the Democrats back then shot themselves in the foot.

Ending the filibuster does has it's down side. Legislation will become like executive orders. Any new incoming president can repeal, change any EO at his whim. Legislation will fall into the same category when a new incoming president with control of congress can repeal and change any legislation the previous president and other party had passed and pass their own with 218 votes in the House and 51 in the senate.

I think one quickly forgets it was the filibuster that saved the ACA back in 2017 from being repealed. Without the filibuster, the ACA wouldn't be today. We as a nation will be jerked to the far left and then to the far right as Republicans will repeal all Democratic passed legislation when they return to power and then the Democrats will repeal all Republican passed legislation when they return to power and both will pass their own only to have it repealed later.

It's going to happen as I said before. So it might as well happen now than at some time in the future, a few years down the road.

I'm not so sure we'll see the end of the filibuster.

Democrats are cowards and as long as it continues to serve Republicans I believe it will remain in place.

Republicans have held the Whitehouse, the Senate, and the House of Representatives and they have never considered repealing their primary lib-owning tool.

The first two years of Trump, yes they could have ended the filibuster. But Trump never had a legislative agenda. Outside of the tax cuts, the GOP, Trump, didn't have anything they wanted passed. Besides, with all the polls at that time showing how disliked and unpopular Trump was, the writing was on the wall that the GOP would lose big in 2018. Say what you will about McConnell, he knows his politics. The Republicans had absolutely no reason during Trump first two years to do away with the filibuster.

Under G.W. Bush which the GOP held congress for his first six years, tradition held. No senator on either side of the aisle ever even considered doing away with the filibuster. That all changed under Obama. Reid set the agenda with his precedence setting first use of the nuclear option. Once Reid did that, the filibuster was on life support. Not dead, but dying, it was just a matter of time.

Since the GOP really hasn't a legislative agenda, they have no need to do away with the filibuster. I think the GOP, McConnell will let it stay. That the GOP, like the first use of the nuclear option is to let the Democrats do away with the filibuster. Then later when the Republicans are back in power, the presidency and control of congress, to use the gift of no filibuster given to them by the democrats to repeal much of the Democrats agenda, much of their previous passed legislation. Then say thank you democrats as they said thank you Reid for the nuclear option when it came to the SCOTUS.

Let the Democrats do away with the filibuster to pass voting rights or whatever, then once in power, the Republicans can easily repeal that legislation along with any other they want. Then the GOP can pass very restrictive voting rights, there would be nothing to stop them until the Democrats regain power to repeal it. The above is just an example.

Just remember, whatever legislation is passed without the filibuster can easily be repealed and replace without the filibuster.

The latest with redistricting
NOV. 1, 2021

Eight states have now finalized their redrawn congressional maps for the 2020s: Oregon, Maine, Nebraska, Indiana, Arkansas, West Virginia, Texas and, most recently, Colorado. Democrats have gained seven seats nationally from the redistricting process so far, Republicans have gained one, and the number of competitive seats has dropped by five. Some of this is because Republicans lost a seat due to reapportionment in West Virginia and Oregon Democrats were able to use their control of the redistricting process to draw a significantly more favorable map for themselves, but it is also due to Texas Republicans giving Democratic incumbents safer districts in exchange for shoring up their own seats. But voting-rights advocates are already suing over the map, so this may not be the end of the redistricting saga in the Lone Star State.

A few other states also appear to be close to finalizing their congressional maps. Late on Oct. 28, the Illinois legislature passed a proposed congressional map that is heavily biased toward Democrats, creating 13 blue seats, three red seats and just one competitive seat. The same evening, the Iowa legislature passed the second congressional-map proposal from the nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency; that map is a lot more competitive than Illinois’s, with two swing seats, one slightly Republican-leaning seat and one safe Republican seat.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/?cid=rrpromo

Maybe, maybe not. Bipartisan deals will still stand. Perhaps the days of hyperpartisan politics are nearing an end. Even a few Republicans are wanting to do more these days than owning the Libs.

I hope it does come to an end. I sick and tired of this polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship. With ending the filibuster would end our modern political era and move us back to saner, less partisan times, do away with the filibuster yesterday.

I highly doubt it though.

I know the article says 10 states have finalized their new maps, now there are 6 states that have only one representative. So the actual number is 16 done, 34 to go. Totals on the gerrymandering was is Dem plus 5, Rep plus 3, so far a net gain of 4 for the Democrats.

The latest with redistricting
NOV. 4, 2021

Ten states have now finalized their redrawn congressional maps for the 2020s — most recently Alabama and North Carolina (though both will face lawsuits alleging they are racial gerrymanders).

At this point, Democrats have gained five seats nationally from the redistricting process, Republicans have gained three, and the number of competitive seats has dropped by four. But while it appears as though Democrats have had the upper hand in redistricting so far, a lot of that advantage is thanks to Texas Republicans giving Democratic incumbents safer districts in exchange for shoring up their own seats. Republicans also control the redrawing of many more districts than Democrats, so that Democratic net gain isn’t likely to last long. We’ve already seen, for instance, Republicans in North Carolina and Ohio pass or propose maps in recent days that are highly biased toward the GOP according to various fairness metrics.

There are also a few other states close to finalizing their congressional maps. Late on Oct. 28, the Illinois legislature passed a proposed congressional map that is heavily biased toward Democrats, creating 13 blue seats, three red seats and just one competitive seat. The same evening, the Iowa legislature passed the second congressional-map proposal from the nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency; that map is a lot more competitive than Illinois’s, with two swing seats, one slightly Republican-leaning seat and one safe Republican seat.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/?cid=rrpromo

With 99 house districts redrawn and signed into law pending a few lawsuits. The Democrats lead in the gerrymandering wars 5-4. There are 336 dsitrcts still to be redrawn.

What's interesting to me is out of these 99 districts, only 6 are considered competititve. Which means 93 seats are safe for the incumbent or party that now holds them. Of the 6 competititve districts which may or may not switch, 5 are held by Democrats, 1 by Republicans.

The generic congressional ballot, nationwide has shrunk from 47-41 Democrat on 1 Aug down to 42-41 today. Based on a quarter of the redrawn districts and the generic congressional vote, today, not next Nov, today it looks like the GOP will pick up between 10-15 house seats. Still no red wave on the horizon. But with a year to go, who knows? The Republicans don't need a red wave to take back the House, just 5 seats. I'd say it looks like the GOP will get them plus a few more.

It is also interesting that in the generic, Republicans haven't gained a single percentage point whilce the Democrats have lost 5. Which simply means they have gone from voting Democratic to undecided.

The Gerrymandering war is now even. Here's the latest on redistricting. 107 districts redrawn, 328 more to go.

NOV. 12, 2021

Thirteen states have now finalized their redrawn congressional maps for the 2020s — that's 19 total counting the 6 states with one representative. Most recently Montana, Idaho and Utah. And several other states are already deep into the process. Of particular note, California and Florida, home to 80 congressional districts between them, both released their first-draft maps this week.

At this point, Democrats have gained five seats nationally from the redistricting process, Republicans have gained five, and the number of competitive seats has dropped by five. But while it appears as though Democrats have gained seats in redistricting so far, a lot of that advantage is thanks to Texas Republicans giving Democratic incumbents safer districts in exchange for shoring up their own seats. Republicans also control the redrawing of many more districts than Democrats, so the GOP may pull ahead of Democrats soon. We’ve already seen, for instance, Republicans in North Carolina, Ohio and Utah pass or propose maps in recent days that are highly biased toward the GOP, according to various fairness metrics.

That said, some of those maps are so extreme they may be overturned in court. For instance, there are already two lawsuits alleging that the new North Carolina map is either a partisan or racial gerrymander. And there are still some states left for Democrats to potentially redistrict to their advantage, such as Illinois. The legislature there has already passed a proposed congressional map that is heavily biased toward Democrats, creating 13 blue seats, three red seats and just one competitive seat; all that’s left for it to become law is the governor’s signature.

The Gerrymandering war is still tied. Nevada is the latest state to finish redrawing their districts. Massaschusetts legislature has passed their redrawn map and sent it to their governor for signature..

20 states have completed the process which includes the 6 states with 1 representative, 111 districts out of the 435. Out of that 111 there's 9 districts that are in my tossup column. 8 seats held by Democrats, 1 by a Republican. More on all of this once the Massachusetts governor signs their new map into law.