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When Trump, or any of his minions, or a Democrat is running I will vote for the Democrat. I believe that Trump is really bad, for the country and for me and, quite possibly the entire world.

My hope, if Trump is running is that he will do the Trump thing and screw it all up. I suspect, for instance, that Trump was behind 1/6 and he screwed that one up. Everything that man touches seems to fail and he just keeps chugging along. His main problems used to based on money. I don't think that is exactly the problem anymore - now he is a politician and has figured out a way to be loved by many whilst he cons them out of their money. Oh, and as president he also figured out a way to help with his money problems by overcharging the country he was running. At one point he actually broke the budget of the secret service overcharging his guards for staying in his rooms. I think that was at one of his golf clubs (none of which, according to many, have never made a dime!)

My wife and I have been watching a tv series called "American Rust". Its placed in the rust belt of our Midwest and its painful to watch. I remember hitch hiking through that area and those areas are very, very sad. All the big outfits left, no jobs, no nothing (I hitch hiked through in the early 60's) The smart ones got the hell out and moved on with their lives. Those that were left are now, I think, Trump true believers and there are a lot of them. They have been in pain for years and then Trump came along and they took their chances and continue to do that. They had little to do but drugs and TV and they were victims of the Trump TV show wherein he was the rich, incredibly successful guy who has the ability to save the world and they bought it. I could go on with this one but I suspect anybody who has experienced what I am talking about understand and those that haven't probably couldn't anyway.

I’ve got a bet on Trump running. If he runs against Harris or Mayo Pete I’m gunna bet large.

Bet on which one? Today independents favorable view of three of them is Biden 37%, Harris 27%, Trump 41%. There’s no favorable/unfavorable on Mayor Pete. Questions 42A, 42B and 42G.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/79n2jfbdep/econTabReport.pdf

Which is today, not in 2024. One also must remember that Trump has been out of the public eye. Independents tend to forget why they disliked him so much. Give Trump a week or two in front of the camera and constant tweeting, his favorable’s among independents will fall. Another aspect of this is independents remember when gas was 2 dollars a gallon, under Trump and now costs 3.50. Independents think their lives was better under Trump than it is under Biden today. The key caveat is Today.

Most independents have forgotten Trump completely. He’s no longer in charge, no longer president. He’s a forgotten piece of history, maybe even ancient history to them. But let him run for the presidency, those unsavory memories of how he behaved and acted, his constant tweeting, etc. will come rushing back.

My favorite Democrat for 2024 is Tammy Duckworth. Of course, this is just me.

I've got a feeling we might see a whole new cast of characters in 2024. Perhaps Duckworth will be among them. I think Harris will have had enough and will quietly move to a consulting firm after this. Buttigieg was never qualified to be president and it appears the Transportation gig has overtaxed him as well. He won't run. Or more specifically; might run but won't gain traction.

Now if he'd called out the national guard and put 10,000 trucks on the road he might've earned some hero status. But he was busy being a new dad....during a transportation crisis.
Who's idea was it to adopt newborns at this critical point in his career?

Nawp...toast that one is.

So those two ain't gonna make it outa the primaries if they ever head in. Biden says he'll run again...the Democratic Party isn't so sure...He'll be actively primaried if he doesn't retire.

I think you can take that to the bank.

Trump is still up in the air...if any of the current cast of characters runs he could beat them.

But if a shiny new face (like Duckworth or another unknown variable) got the nod then Trump could be defeated. Trump might also lose in the primaries, DeSantis is polling better than he is and DeSantis has refused to say he would drop out if Trump ran....

Trump can "run" for president right up until a "doctor" tells him not to. Up in the air. I feel like he won't run but I don't feel like I know he won't run.

Right now the most likely scenario is Trump or DeSantis against an unknown Democrat like Duckworth. Biden, Bernie and Liz et al (Trump) will be aging out of the system. This is likely Pelosi's last hurrah and I'd be surprised if McConnell runs for another term. So we're gonna be seeing some major changes here in the next few years.

That's what I see when I throw the bones. That's what I see when I swirl my tea leaves.

A change in the wind, indicating nothing. Or maybe something...? We've got to wait for more history to occur before we know for sure who wins and loses.

Hope you all had a happy Thanksgiving. I’m thinking along the same lines as you. History hasn’t been kind to a sitting president who is primary challenged. Kefauver challenged Truman in 1952, Truman dropped out, McCarthy challenged LBJ in 1968, LBJ dropped out. Then Teddy Kennedy challenged Carter in 1980, Carter lost, Buchanan challenged G.H.W. Bush in 1992 and Bush lost. I may have forgotten one. If Biden does run and is challenged in the primaries, that may be bad news for the Democrats as the party with a sitting president who is challenged seems to always lose. Perhaps it’s because the sitting president was weak and vulnerable to begin with.

Like you, I’m waiting to see what the future holds and who will be what. It’s long past the time for a new generation to take over. For the best or for the worst, I’m ready to see all these old foggies depart.

Are you kidding me?!? Trump is in the news cycle every, single, day.

Perhaps, but for only a sound bite or two. Nothing like it was when he was president. Perhaps quite a lot of folks are just ignoring when the news talks about Trump. He's gone. No longer relevant to a lot of folks. No longer in charge, no longer president, no longer having a million tweets a day reported on. He's been basically background, a much lesser story and basically out of the headlines. After being out of office for around 11 months, I don't think that many Americans give an owl's hoot about him anymore.

Unless you're an avid Trump supporters or an avid anti-Trumper. then you probably keep tabs on him that the rest of us don't.

Faces change, policy remains

No ones going to win without the consent of the ruling classes.

No ones going to do anything to change this countries power relationship. We will obsess over the fiction of warring political parties as though the outcome of electing one or the other of the two factions will have any impact,

Dems got elected with the largest protest in modern history. Protests over police violence and its racism. Democrats increased police funding once in office with their majority.

Joe Biden campaigned on ending the pandemic, Joe Biden insisted on people going to the polls in the primary when the virus spread was accelerating. Once in office Biden went all in on Trumps operation warp speed and told people they could ditch the mask after the jab and wouldn’t get COVID. Laughable.

Who’s got money on us hitting a million deaths by spring?

Joe Biden’s having thanksgiving at the billionaire mansion of Caryle group co-founder, David Rubenstein.
The same Rubenstein President Manchin has been working with to shape Biden’s BBB plan to their liking.

Theirs no political upside in as class war when ruling classes own the parties. To think a change of face would change the power arrangements in this country is naive at best.

One upside to a degrading President though. He did end the war in Afghanistan. That, more than anything, will doom any 2nd. term for him. Too many rice bowls got broke.

Tammy Duckworth… yeah, she ticks a lot of blue check boxes. Handicapped, a vet, has a vagina. Rightwing foreign policy cred (she’ll keep the gravy train rolling for the MIC). But can she hold it against Trump? Not too sure on that spread.

The most popular portions of Biden’s phoney BBB bill have now been stripped out by Democrat right wingers with President Manchin and his VP Sinema leading that effort.
It would be interesting to see politicians do something that people wanted for a change.
Not gunna happen.
We’re gunna pretend that we have representative government and quarrel about the other side being an obstacle to progress when, in a reality, it’s a joint partnership of militarism and oligarchic rule.

From an outsider’s point of view. Both major parties owe their hearts and souls to corporations, wall street firms, lobbyists, special interests, super, mega individual money donors etc. This is where they now get their hundreds of millions and billions to run their campaigns and organizations. I used to say, millions and tens of millions, then went to tens of millions and hundred of millions. But with 14 billion being spent on 2020 election, it now is in the billions.

The two major parties do have a monopoly on our election system, and they intend to keep it that way. Republicans and Democrats write our election laws and they do so as a mutual protection act. If there’s one thing both major parties agree on, it’s no viable third party will ever rise. The rhetoric of both parties is completely different, but they basically govern the same. Although they do play around the edges.

Now that’s over, let me add that today, most folks aren’t worried one bit about any legislation. They’re worried about rising prices, gas, food, housing, etc. along with the appearance of empty shelves. What may or may not help them in the future is totally irrelevant today. Being a numbers guy, I must throw this in.

History

1 Aug 2021 Overall approval 52.3%, Disapprove 43.5%, Generic Congressional Ballot Democrat 45.5%, Republican 40,4%.

1 Sep 2021 Overall Approval 45.8%, Disapprove 49.2%, Generic Congressional Ballot Democrat 43.0%, Republican 40.4%.

1 Oct 2021 Overall Approval 45.2%, Disapprove 49.2% Generic Congressional Ballot Democrat 45.0%, Republican 42.1%

1 Nov 2021 Overall Approval 43.0%, Disapprove 51.1% Generic Congressional Ballot Democrat 43.9%, Republican 41.4%

15 Nov 2021 Biden signs infrastructure bill into law. Biden’s overall job approval 42.1%, disapproval 52.5%. Generic Congressional Ballot Democrat 42.4%, Republican 41.8%

19 Nov 2021 House passes BBB legislation, sent to senate. Biden’s overall job approval 41.3%, disapproval 53.4%. Generic Congressional Ballot Democrat 42.0%, Republican 42.6%

25 Nov 2021 Biden’s overall job approval 41.6%, disapproval 53.1%. Generic congressional Ballot Democrats 42.1%, Republican 42.6%.