Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

I enjoy following the twists and turns of the polls leading up to an election. Let’s say how Arizona looks today, how it looked a month ago, two months ago, three etc. I like following the redistricting process, surprises do occur. The fact Texas didn’t gerrymander was a huge surprise. Illinois, Oregon and Nevada on the Democratic side along with North Carolina on the GOP side wasn’t. Totally expected.

Once a state redraws its districts, the first I want to know is how many competitive districts there are in that state and which party has the incumbent. The rest, I don’t care about, just the competitive districts. The switchable ones. Then as time goes by, some safe or solid districts will become competitive and some competitive districts will become solid. Constant change. What is today won’t be tomorrow.

Ever since the Republicans gained 13 house seats in November 2020, it has been assumed the Republicans would regain control of the house in 2022. This even before a single new district was drawn. That is still the case. But by how many seats, that is unanswerable. At least until redistricting is almost completed sometime next year. The senate is different, only a third of their seats are up. So much depends on which states are holding elections. This midterm the Republicans have 20 seats up, the Democrats 14. Numbers which favor the Democrats. The less seats up, the less you can lose. With the smaller number of seats up next year, the Democrats stand a good chance of retaining the senate. As of today, anyway.

I still don’t see any red wave in the house. 157 districts have been redrawn, out of that, 12 are in the competitive column. 9 Democratic held, 3 Republican held. That a bit over a third of the districts. A Republican net gain of 10-15 still looks the most likely outcome, today. No red wave. A wave election is usually defined as the out of power party gaining 30 seats or more along with retaking control of the house. This has happened in 1994,2006, 2010 and 2018. Before that one must go back to the 1950 midterm election for the wave election prior to 1994. In fact, both 1948 and 1950 were wave elections. In 1948 the GOP gained 56 house seats along with taking control. In 1950 the Democrats reversed that with a gain of 75 seats.

I love all the twists and turns leading up to an election.

It's 2024 when the Senate vote turns topsy-turvey on the Democrats. That's when I expect Republicans to take full control again. It's a slow red wave, more like a red tide. A slow killer.

There is an election in one year. Biden's report card. The House is expected to fall. That hobbles Biden and the Democrats for the next two years just as it hobbled Trump.

Then Biden will be blamed for doing too much or doing not enough(both of which will likely be true) and replaced by (probably) Ron De Santis. He appears to be an able administrator, has stood up to Trump, and will likely serve two terms.

Democrats should be able to take over easily after that(fiasco).

I'd like to fast forward to there but I'm going to have to watch the whole dreary mess unfold just like everybody else.....

I see the 1/6 Commission fruits of their labor coming to fruition next year and severely hampering any Republican advancement in the House of Senate. After all, what decent person wants a party that supported an insurrection to govern?

I’d say Trump never had a legislative agenda, outside of his tax cuts that I remember. In that aspect, he really wasn’t hobbled his last two years. Trump had no agenda. Now Obama was different. He succeeded with the ACA, but that success stopped dead anything else in his last six. Obama spent most of his last six years stopping numerous repeal attempts by the Republicans. Outside of executive orders, one can say Obama accomplished nothing his last six. Legislative wise that is. 2024, I think it all depends on who the Democrats nominate. I haven’t seen any national polls on DeSantis favorable/unfavorable. Probably too early.

Heck, I’m too busy trying to get my head around the 2022 midterms than to jump ahead to 2024 and beyond. No one I know of foresaw the tumble Biden and company would take from 1-30 August. I never seen that coming. There can be an upswing just as quick. Although right now inflation, rising prices are working against that upswing no matter what legislation success he and the Democratic controlled congress have. Too many people vote on the thinness or thickness of their wallets.

Here's the latest poll, 19 Nov 2021 on the Florida governor’s and senate races next year.

If the 2022 election for Governor of Florida were held today, and the candidates were Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Charlie Crist, who would you vote for?
Ron DeSantis: 50.6%
Charlie Crist: 44.8%
Undecided: 4.6%
If the 2022 election for Governor of Florida were held today, and the candidates were Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Nikki Fried, who would you vote for?
Ron DeSantis: 51.2%
Nikki Fried: 42.3%
Undecided: 6.4%
If the 2022 election for U.S. Senator from Florida were held today, and the candidates were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Val Demings, who would you vote for?
Marco Rubio: 51.0%
Val Demings: 44.3%
Undecided: 4.7%
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2021_State_November19_CY8V2D.pdf

I smell rotten fruit. How'd that play out in Virginia?

Trump is yesterday's news to most of America and locking him up is a priority to almost no one. Donald Trump's conviction is not key to the 2022 elections. Sky-high wages and prosperity for all is what needs to happen if Dems hope to hang on at all.

40% of the electorate are independents, they've already placed Trump into the ancient history category.. 1-6 is no different or means no more to them than the Minneapolis or Portland riots of last year.

I think if things stay about where they are now, the Democrats will be very disappointed in the amount of attention independents give the 1-6 hearings. They've moved on. Their worry right now is rising prices, inflation. That over rides everything else. 1-6 will be no magic wand. I would wager a good majority of independents have forgotten all about it and don't give a cat's meow about it.

Of course, time will tell.

I promised before he was elected that he would lose in 2024. Extensively and with great gusto! He was the very worst possible candidate of them all.

But I gave him the benefit of the doubt...hoped he could pull it off...we'll see, he's got three more years. Maybe he'll get younger and less inept. Maybe.

NOTHING stays the same year-to-year.

The "very worst candidate" and the only one projected to beat Trump and win. And Joe did just that.



Sorry your bloated orange clown lost with such humiliation, Greger.

You’re right Rick, nothing stays the same. Even so, inflation and rising prices will be the number one issue most likely for the next four or five months if not longer. By number one, I mean the most important issue that overrides all other issues.

And yes, Biden was chosen because he was a safe bet to beat Trump. No other reason, no other reason needed when beating Trump was the only priority and the main objective of the Democratic Party.

What I like about Greger is he can see the whole forest, the reality of the political landscape of all America and not just the few trees that obscure the forest and political reality of all to just a few, perhaps 15-20% of all America. Understanding the politics of all of America, all the people that make up America with all their differing political views is important when it comes to elections and what may happen in the future. Just viewing the minimal political landscape through deep blue colored glasses, excluding those of the red and those whose glasses are much clearer provides a more meaningful picture of the whole forest than just seeing a couple of trees.

Greger and I both voted for Biden, probably for different reason or maybe not. But that doesn’t stop me or him from seeing the ineptness and the problems that are arising with the Democrats going into the 2022 midterms. All is not rosy; the Democrats have some huge problems to overcome if they’re going to retain control of the house. Maybe some that will be impossible to overcome, time will tell. Most Americans have moved on from Trump as the results of Virginia shows and the narrow escape of the NJ governor in a state where democrats out number republicans by a million voters. Now there are reasons Biden and company have fallen to around 41% approval and 52% disapproval. There’s a reason why now more Americans, however slight say they’ll vote for Republican congressional candidates next midterm. 43-42 Republican today whereas 6 months ago it was people stating they would vote for Democratic congressional candidates 47-41.

I think one can either ignore all the reasons and continue to spout partisan propaganda, viewing the 2 or 3 trees thinking they make up the forest by themselves or step back, acknowledge the problems, the reasons for the shrinking numbers of Biden and company, see what they are, try to view the whole forest of the real political world of everyone in America, then try to fix them, to do something about them. I’ll tell you this as proven by McAuliffe’s campaign in Virginia, Trump, Trump, Trump isn’t going to win the midterms for the democrats. Too many people have moved beyond him.