Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

According to who's projections? My projection was that ANY candidate could beat Trump. America chose Biden and they got what they got. A pale skinny stumbling mumbling inept old senator from Delaware who is going to lose all three branches by 2024 as a victory lap.

Democrats are going to be out of power for a decade.

Thanks, Uncle Joe!

I don’t know about anybody beating Trump last year. Biden won 51.3 to 46.9%. Less than 5 points. Any election 5 points or less is considered a close election via historical standards. Biden, in my opinion was the safest candidate to beat Trump as there wasn’t much there to dislike or use against him by the Republicans. Biden stayed basically hidden during the campaign, making sure nothing came out to use against him or to increase his dislikes in the wars of dislikes. He let Trump be Trump by hogging the spotlight reminding folks why they disliked Trump so much. Smart campaign strategy. I would add that these last two elections were more about personality, 2016 and 2020 than issues, when it came to swing voters who determined both elections.

Biden was exactly what the voters wanted in November 2020. Someone who behaved like an adult, someone to bring back normalcy and a return to saner times. That, Biden has done, and his behavior is presidential. What voters want can also change on a dime. What voters wanted six month ago, what they were satisfied with and perfectly happy with then, can change where they don’t like it anymore today. Support and Oppose can also change in a hurry depending on the situation then and the situation now. Trump is gone, now it’s all Biden’s and the Democratic controlled congress’s show.

I’ll add, what made Biden the ideal candidate to beat Trump, might not make him the ideal president. Of course depending on one political point of view.

Huh?! I remember Biden eating scat until S.Carolina. A state that rarely goes Dem in the general. I also remember a lot of unprecedented things happening in that primary that were needed to carry him across the finish line.

I think your projecting a bit here.

I'm talking about all voters, America as a whole, not just those who vote in the Democratic primary. The fact that independents went for Biden big, 54-41 shows he was the right choice to defeat Trump. I doubt any other Democrat could have rang up that large a margin. Biden had the reputation of being a moderate Democrat, a decent guy, a likable guy, someone who could attract the swing voters, something Hillary couldn’t and a few other Democrats in the running. In the context of 2020, Biden was the right guy. In the context of 2021, maybe, maybe not.

The primary goal, maybe the only goal for the Democrats was beating Trump last year. Everything else was secondary. Heck, they’re still bashing the heck out of Trump. Just read some of the post here on this site. You get the impression some still think Trump is president.

Could someone else have beaten Trump, we’ll never know because it never happened. I think some could have, some not. I think one needs to realize when it came to independents, it wasn’t Trump’s policies they were against. They were evenly split on them. They didn’t like Trump obnoxious personality, his childish behavior. I would say they were looking for someone who acted like an adult, a grownup with little baggage. Someone who would bring back normalcy and sanity to the office of the presidency.

Of course, there will be differing opinions, I look on 2020 from a swing voter, a non-partisan point of view and an election forecaster. Others here look at it from a purely, 100% Democratic Party or liberal perspective. That does make a difference.

or thanks for keeping America from taking 2 more steps toward fascism.

I predict ignorance will prevail in 2024 and Trump will get another bite of the fascist apple. People appear to be getting more ignorant by the second.

Q predicted Trump would round up all the satanic, pedophile, baby eating Democrats and send them to Gitmo. Well, wait until 2025. Trump will have all Democrats and some Republicans lined up in anti-American (read that to really mean anti-Trump) public hearing with very real possibilities of DoJ indictments (convictions are not necessary .... just the perception), and Republicans ejecting Democrat House members for cause i.e. being criminals.

But don't worry .... this is not destroying America. It is building a better America. An America molded on the belief Trump is savior. He was once dead and then would arise. America ... a Trump place ... a better place.

But that is not destroying America.

I’m surprised at that response. All that polling in the primary on who would be a better match against Trump. You weren’t doing forecasts on it?
Then there’s the question of wether primaries are open or closed. A large chunk of Americans can’t vote in primaries.
I think your ‘what the voters wanted’ is doing a lot of work there.

Now do Blueanon

Or perhaps as both major parties shrink, folks are just getting tired of both major parties. It's a distinct possibility. Sick and tired of this modern political era we've entered into with its polarization, the great divide and it super, mega, ultra-high partisanship. There must be a reason why independents have climbed from 30% in 2006 up to 40% plus today.

Maybe

you say shrinking but I say everyone in my neck of the Trump world still have their flags and signs up. Not shrinking here. Stronger than ever and still know the election was stolen.

Shrinking as a percentage of the total electorate over time. In 1960 80% of Americans identified themselves with either the Democratic or the Republican Party. By 1980 that had dropped to 70%, from then on until 2006, the 30% who fell into the independent’s column remained fairly constant at 30% while the two major parties had their ups and downs. Independents had a high of 36% in 1992 mainly caused the Perot candidacy, but quickly fell back. Independents low during the time period between 1980 and 2006 was 28% back in 1990. But for the most part, independents hovered around 30%. Independents hit 35% in 2009 while the share of those who identified with the two major parties shrunk to 60%. Independents hit 40% in 2013 and if Gallup is correct, as of 17 Oct 2021, independents now consist of 44% of the electorate which each major party stands at 26% for a total of 52% who now identify with the major parties.

Granted these numbers are dynamic and they change month to month. What grabs my attention is for the first time since FDR, the two major parties are at relative equal strength or among those who self-identify with both major parties.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/interactives/party-id-trend/