I don’t see anything to disagree with, Greger. Yes, the house will fall next year, the only question is by how many seats. With 20 Republicans and 14 Democrats up for reelection next year in the senate, a net gain of 2 seats for the Democrats would be average. Chris Sununu deciding not to run for Hassan’s seat in NH helps the Democrats. Probably turning a loss into a win for Hassan. Pennsylvania with Doc OZ deciding to run as a Republican most likely facing current Lt. Gov Fetterman leaves that seat up in the air. At least until some polls start coming in. Fetterman did have a double-digit lead over 3 prospective GOP senate nominees. So, we’ll see how OZ polls later.
Most folks, independents, swing voters that is voted for Biden to bring some sanity and normalcy back to the White House. They wanted the man-child spoiled brat gone. They didn’t vote for any major legislation. Just putting an adult back in the White House. The Numbers from 2020 prove that, 41% of swing voters, independents voted for Trump, 54% for Biden. Swing voters wanted Trump gone. But in the congressional races, 48% of independents voted for Republican congressional candidates vs. 49% for Democratic congressional candidates. In the senate races, it was 51-47, independents voting for Republican senators and in the governor races a bit wider 52-46 for GOP governor candidates.
Hence my conclusion that 2020 was all about getting rid of Trump for swing voters, but no mandate or even acceptance of the Democratic Party’s agenda or ideals. If it was Biden with his huge 7 plus million vote win over Trump would have brought along some new Democratic House members instead of losing 13.
