Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

It dawns on me that I ignored something about the Republican party. That would be the Trump base. He flat out controls these people and the Republicans cannot win anything without that base. The base itself, based on what one sees at one of his gatherings, are mostly middle aged, not particularly bright or wealthy, enthusiasts who used to watch his TV show and bought the man that was presented there. I also tend to believe that, before Trump, they had nobody to believe in. Again, there seems to be one basic belief in the Republican party and that is they cannot win without that base and that base is owned by Trump. After the Virginia thing I am not absolutely sure that's true but I do believe that is what they believe. The interesting thing about the Republicans is that those who hold office are determined to keep their jobs to the exclusion of everything, including the destruction of our country. They have given up truth, the the system of reality the rest of us live in every day, and doing the 'right' thing. All that being said, even though some of them run their mouths too much and get into trouble most still follow the lines laid out for them. They message well and stick to the plan (whatever that might be).

I am not sure about the Dems nor am I convinced they have a base, except for those who are members of the Democratic party, seem to be educated, and generally anti-racist, and, pretty much, middle of the roaders. I actually am not sure what they are for, or against as the Dems have a really serious problem if not telling anybody what the hell they all believe, as Democrats. Lots of blather but not a whole lot of facts. I am not even convince they know!

The stunning thing is that the Republicans have demonstrated that they can beat the Dems with regularity. The Dems, on the other hand, sometimes just get lucky. I remain unconvinced that either side has actually won all the votes.

I just read this over and have decided that I am, basically, confused and clueless. I will let this remain for the hell of it.

I am the Democratic base and I believe that the people should own the means of production.

I don’t know if I can help, but I’ll try. Each party has its base. Those who identify themselves as Republicans and or Democrats, those who affiliate with the two major parties. History has shown on average 92% of those who identify with a political party will vote for their party’s candidates. I suppose you could call those who identify with the GOP as Trump’s base. Usually a losing presidential candidate or a president who has served two terms silently fades away like Obama, Bush II, Bill Clinton, Bush I, Reagan, Carter etc. Up and until Trump, none has tried to continue as leader of the party. Trump in doing so is unique, the only one I can think of.

I would say you’re correct in that prior to Trump it was an ideal, a philosophy that the Republicans believed in. Not the man, which again makes Trump unique. I think the Republicans, Trump’s followers have thrown a lot of the conservative philosophy out the window. They’re not interested in ideology anymore, just the man.

As for Republican elected officials, if they want to keep their jobs, they must to toe the Trump line. If they don’t, they’ll be primaried out. Regardless of party, self-preservation is the top priority of any elected official. The fact that these Republican elected officials seem to bow to Trump, whether they believe in Trump or not or what he has to say, it’s self-preservation to the max.

Yes, the Democratic Party has its base also. But unlike the Republicans, today it is based more on political philosophy then on any one person. Like any large group, the Democratic Party has its factions. Usually they have kept the in-fighting behind closed doors. Probably due to their narrow margins in both the house and senate when they want to pass any legislation, the Democrats must get 100% of all their elected members to vote for whatever it is they want to pass. In the past, that was far from necessary. Even with the ACA in 2010, the Democrats had 256 representatives, they could afford to let 34 Democrats vote against it and still pass the ACA. 34 did vote against the ACA with little to no fanfare. No out in the open in-fighting.

I’ll have to disagree that the Republicans have proven they can beat the Democrats regularly. Since FDR, the two major parties have swapped the presidency every 4 or 8 years. Bush I was the only candidate to win back to back presidencies for his party, Reagan to Bush I. Beginning with FDR, the Democrats controlled the House for 58 out of 62 years to include 40 straight years, ending in 1994. Since then even the house has gone back and forth. Now the big tent Democratic Party from FDR through let’s say Reagan was a completely different party from todays. Then the Democratic Party was known as the working man’s party, the Republican Party, the party of business or what was referred to as the country club party.

Few today refer to the Democratic Party as the working man’s party. It’s more of a social justice party. The working man has slowly been moving to the GOP. It’s the Democratic Party that has suffered the biggest drop. From averaging around 45% of the electorate from FDR to Reagan, then 35% from Bush I to Obama, now down to 30% and below. Whereas the Republican party has basically maintained around 28% of the electorate from FDR to present. The GOP has been as high as 32% during Eisenhower and again during Reagan and as low as 21% of the electorate during the last days of Nixon, then Ford and Carter. It took Reagan to revive the GOP. The Democratic Party hit 51% of the electorate in 1961 and again in 1964. According to Gallup, as of 19 Oct 2021 26% of the electorate are Republicans, 26% Democrats and 44% independents. This is a historical low for the Democratic Party going back to FDR. It's also the first time since FDR that the two major parties have been even. From FDR until now, the Democratic Party was always the larger of the two major parties.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/interactives/party-id-trend/

Like you jgw, I’m not sure whether I explain anything or went off on a tangent. Like you also, I’ll let it be and see what comes of it.

I assume that you are also a socialist. If that is true why in the world are you not a member of the Socialist Party of America? Oh, on second thought, I suspect you might be a member of the Democratic Socialists of America?

I am tempted to continue but, then, decided it would just muddy the waters.

Who is few? You? This is a Trumpism ... someone is telling me .... yes the voices.

I believe Pres Biden routinely refers to the Democrat Party as the working class party i.e. the working man's party. What Republican legislation earns them the right to be called the working man's party? I suspect no legislation. Republicans (the one's who continue to believe in some political philosophy would say trickle down is the way to help the working man) routinely pass legislation which primarily helps businesses and the more wealthy folks. Whereas, Democrats routinely pass legislation which directly helps the working class folks.

Now, it is easy to say something which is not true, and to continue to say it, does not make it valid. That is the Trump approach to truth. If he lies enough and doubles down on the lie (yep it becomes the "big lie" for which Goebbels is so famous) the base will assuredly believe it.

Both aspects can be true and valid at the same time. The Republican Party does not represent either. You can believe their lie, but it doesn't make it true.

I rather suspect the changing demographics of parties has more to do with non-political characteristics, than political philosophy. Take a look at the changing allegiance of parties in the South following the CRA. Southern Democrats abandoned the Democrat party in favor of the minority Republican party for one reason only, and it has nothing to do with politics, and everything to do with bigotry (I know ... I know ... it can be considered a political statement). So can one argue the loss of Democrat base has anything to do with race? I don't know, but it raises the specter of the possibility the underlying polarization between people is based on bigotry and not politics. A possible argumentative point is consider what the Republican (read that Trump Party) tenets are. Whatever Trump says they are, and of course one could construe that to mean building a wall between peoples as the driving force of the current widening schism between parties and people. Consider the non-sensical position of Republicans to stand in favor of killing Americans by ignoring public health measures. Consider the long running indoctrination campaign conducted by right wing groups using Fox News as a lever to wedge peoples apart.

I think Dylan said it best ... "something is happening here but you don't know what it is
Do you, Mr. Jones?"

Yes, I'm a socialist! That's my ideology

I'm registered Non Partisan or NP which is what Florida calls independents. I'm an independent socialist. Not a member of any party.

I am in fact a democratic socialist who believes that officials should be elected by the people instead of appointed by the Party.

I believe that the means of production should be owned by the people. That's a complicated concept but it basically involves universal ownership of infrastructure and resources and a guaranteed income. Beginning at birth and accruing interest. Everybody starts out rich, some get richer, some squander it but all receive enough to get by.

I ALWAYS vote a straight Democratic ticket and must therefore be a part of the Democratic base.

Because even though they don't know it yet, Democrats are the future socialist party.

Two-Party system ain't never gonna change. But one party has to first become a PEOPLE'S party instead of just tossing chump change to the people while enhancing the portfolios of the top 10%.

Along and along the people will rise up and demand that government deliver the goods they promise. Marxist theory insists it will happen. But like the second coming of Christ there's no hint of WHEN it will be or even IF it will ever be.

Yeah...some call that gaslighting. But he still hangs with the Billionaires on the weekends.

Trump routinely allied himself with the unwashed too.

You know Biden has never held a real job? His dad worked though so he knows all about it.

Not all that routinely. Most legislation funnels money to the rich who then "create jobs" to help the working-class folks. They mostly dangle carrots for votes. You know...medicare for all, $15 minimum wage, paid sick leave, family time yada yada yada...

It's just another iteration of trickle-down economics. The liberal version.

The other party will never ever be the voice of the people. They are the business party. The voice of Capital. The voice as far as I'm concerned of destruction and probably extinction.

And Mr. Porter...Dude...Trump isn't coming back. Yall Dems need to get your heads out of his ass and start thinking about the real future.

Reporter - You have something there. Let me correct something here. Here you go:

Can Democrats Win Back the White Working Class?

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/can-democrats-win-back-the-white-working-class/

None of the exit polls I search had anything about blue collar workers or the working class regardless of race. But they had union households

Prior to 2012 the Democratic Presidential candidate averaged 62% of the union household vote. In 2012 that fell to 58%, 2016 down to 51% and rebounded to 56% in 2020

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html

It seems the white working class is deserting the Democrats; the Democrats are picking up the white college educated. Those with college degrees were once solid Republican. Those with a High School degree or less, once a Democratic Party bastion is now going Republican. Change is constant. Even minorities aren’t voting as Democratic as they use to. Trump in 2020 received 12% of the black vote, that doesn’t sound much. But one must go back to Gerald Ford, 1976 when a Republican presidential nominee received more than Trump’s 12%. Ford received 15% then. Trump received 32% of the Hispanic vote. Outside of G.W. Bush’s 40% in 2004, that is the most for a Republican presidential nominee since Reagan in 1984 when he received 37%. Trump in 2020 received 34% of the Asian vote, more than Romney and more than McCain. G.W. Bush received 42% in 2004. Bush also received 11% of the black vote that year. Not a bad showing for a Republican.

Democrats have gotten an elitist image and it's not playing well with the blue-collar boys.

But there's a bright side...


Turns out Millenials are the best educated generation in history so more younger voters are already leaning towards the blue team. Given what we know about ZGen they will likely be following suit. This too is the pool from which future candidates will be drawn. But even younger conservatives are trending slightly more liberal which points to a time when the two factions might begin working together a bit more.