Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

Nixon was odd and paranoid at the same time. Back then it was said a conservative republican stood for the same things the democrats did, only a little less. Eisenhower, Nixon and Ford probably wouldn’t be allowed into the Republican Party today. Back then both major parties had their conservative and liberal wings. The Republican Party had its liberal Rockefeller Republicans of the Northeast while the Democrats had their conservative southern democrats. Both parties were a mixture, not like today when the Republican Party is the conservative party and the Democratic Party, the liberal party. You had no straight party line votes back then either. Both parties basically split their votes along ideological and regional lines. Entirely a different era, unrecognizable today. But this is the era where I gain my political footing.

The problem as I see it isn’t that the Democrats don’t want to win. It’s both parties playing to their base and basically no one else. Playing to 30% of all America while ignoring the other 70%. After a few years, those unwashed in the middle, swing voters, independents get angry at being ignored, so they vote one party out of power and the other party in. Each time hoping that the new party they voted in will take them into consideration when it comes to governing instead of just their base. It never happens. But the vote one party in one election and vote them out the next has become the only tool available for independents. Neither party will move toward the middle to placate them. Especially not in today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship. Even though by doing so would in my opinion allow the party in power to take little steps forward toward their ultimate goal for years and years and remain in power. Instead to please their base, each party tries their gigantic leaps which does nothing but peeve off independents because those gigantic leaps takes them out of their comfort zone. In the end independents vote for the party’s candidates they’re less angry at. Usually the party out of power candidates or the party that doesn’t hold the presidency.

So is this part of your definition of "independents?

Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results

Albert Einstein?

What other choice does this group of voters who make up 40% or a bit more of the electorate have? They’re not members nor do they affiliate themselves with either major party. Most fall somewhere in-between the ideology of the two major parties. Or they support one party on somethings, support the other party on other things. They don’t fall in-line with either major party’s ideology or wants.

The two major parties have a monopoly on our election system. Republicans and Democrats write our election laws and they do so as a mutual protection act. If there’s one thing both major parties agree on, it’s no viable third party will ever rise. They give themselves automatic ballot access but make everyone else jumps through a million and one hoops just to get on the ballot. Everyone else must qualify through signature and petitions. The two major parties get all the money from corporations, wall street firms, lobbyists, special interests, super, mega individual money donors etc. Third parties, none. Therefore, the Republican and Democratic parties were able to raise and spend 14 billion dollars on the 2020 election. In third place on the money list was the Libertarian Party raising and spending a bit less than 3 million.

Not only does the two major parties control ballot access, they now make the rules for the presidential debates and decide which candidates are allowed in. They took the debates away from the League of Woman’s Voters after the League allowed Ross Perot into the debates. The two major parties vowed, never again to allow anyone in the presidential debates that isn’t a Republican nor a Democrat.

So, what are this group of voters that most call independents to do? They don’t march lockstep like mindless robots with either major party. They agree with some things and disagree with other things that both major parties try to do. Agreeing with GOP at times, other times with the Democrats, disagreeing at times with the Republicans and disagreeing at other times with the Democrats. Yet his group makes up the largest group of voters. According to Gallup, as of 19 Oct 2021, independents make up 44% of the electorate, republicans 26%, democrats 26%. These numbers are dynamic and change constantly. You end up with one party governing the way 26% of Americans want them to govern ignoring the rest, the 74% as the party in power tries to push their agenda on all the rest.

With no other choice outside of voting those in power, control out and hoping for change, for recognition, independents will continue to vote in, vote out, vote in again and out again until one or the other major parties or both decide to take them into consideration as to how they govern.

One other thought for the Democratic Party. This party averaged 45% of the electorate from FDR until Reagan, then it began kicking out its conservatives. Successful, the Democratic Party averaged 35% of the electorate from Reagan to Obama when the Democratic Party began kicking out its moderates. Dropping to 30% through Trump and if Gallup is correct, down to 26% today. Progressives are now the largest faction within the Democratic Party. Perhaps its majority. Who knows?

The Republican Party has remained constant with their share of the electorate, 33% during Eisenhower, then falling to 21% Nixon and during Ford before rising to 33% under Reagan, then falling again down to 25% during Bush II and Obama. Now at 26%. The first time since FDR the two major parties have been tied. The Democratic Party has always held the advantage until today.

Under IKE, the Republican Party did have its liberal wing, the old Rockefeller liberal Republicans of the Northeast. The GOP kicked them out by the time they got to Reagan. The Republican Party is also in the process of ridding themselves of their moderates, so the Democratic Party isn’t alone in this.

Gaining in all of this were independents or those who no longer align themselves with either major party. From 20% of the electorate under Eisenhower to 30% under Reagan to 35% under Obama, to 40% under Trump, now currently at 44% or as of 19 Oct 2021.

You do have three categories of independents, those who lean Republican, independents who lean Democratic and pure or true independents with no leans. The difference is those who identify themselves with the two major parties will vote for their party’s candidates on average 92% of the time regardless of who those candidates are. Independents with leans, one party or the other, they’ll vote for the party they lean toward on average 72% of the time. As to pure or true independents with no leans, no one knows as they’re all over the place. Voting 80-20 for one party one election, then 80-20 for the other party the next, then perhaps 50-50.

The study of independents is most interesting. sometimes amazing.

Something has always bugged me about this tripartite perspective. It’s a bananas, apples, and oranges comparison.

First, you have Reeps, who in recent decades have been a fairly cohesive ideological voting bloc - now they have become nearly monolithic Death Star with strict enforcement of loyalty, no matter how moronic. It has a largely authoritarian inclination.

Next you have Dems, who have a well-earned reputation for being fragmented and are resistant to pulling together as a disciplined team. But they share a bent towards collaboration.

Then you have Independents, who don’t share any particular ideology in a large bloc, and span the spectrum of extreme progressivism and socialism to radical rightwingers who think that the Constitution grants them the right to overthrow the government by force. What we call Independents are not a a cohesive bloc at all, and there is no organization. I’d say if they share anything in large measure, it is a desire to be left alone (they aren’t joiners) and not have to think too hard.

The are lots of valid observations about trends for these groups, but they really need to be evaluated differently- Reeps are like a military prep school, Dems are like a city council, and Indies are like… like… I don’t know, a homeless camp?

The Democrats have voted like a cohesive group in the past. Examples:
2020 democrats 94-5 for Biden, republicans 94-6 for Trump
2016 democrats 89-8 for Clinton, republican 88-8 for Trump
2012 democrats 92-6 for Obama, republicans 93-5 for Romney
2008 democrats 89-10 for Obama, republicans 90-9 McCain
2004 democrats 89-11 for Kerry, republicans 93-6 for Bush
2000 democrats 87-11 for Gore, republicans 91-8 for Bush

I’ll stop there as 1992/96 with Perot in the race threw the stats off. Presidential wise, cohesion is relatively even. There is a 4-point difference in 2000/04, the GOP achieved 90% of their base vote in all the above except for 2016. The democrats achieved this only twice. There’s not much difference in the voting habits of those who identify with either party. Now in-fighting among the party faithful could be quite different. But not voting habits.

The thing is independents made the difference in who won or lost. You’re correct, independents are not one huge ideological block. They’re all over the place. I doubt one could ever organize them into an organized voting black as Republicans and Democrats can. Independents can swing wildly from one election to the next. You seen this in Virginia’s governor race. Biden won Virginia independents by 19 points in 2020, 57-38, but McAuliffe lost them to Youngkin by 9 points, 54-45. A 28-point swing.

Perhaps one of the biggest swings without research further back than 2000 was independents voting for Democratic congressional candidates 58-39 in 2006 and then voting for Republican congressional candidates 57-36 in 2010. That’s a 38-point swing. From a plus 19 to a minus 19 for the Democrats.

The midterm voting by party also shows the same cohesion as the presidential.

That's the problem us Independents have with you partisans.

Always at loggerheads over nothing. Predictable and boring.

Over and over, rinse and f*cking repeat.

For what its worth. I believe that our system was setup to deal with any two sides of any argument. The result, in theory, would be what both sides can live with. Many believe that means that each side have to give up something for this to happen. I don't buy that. I don't think anybody needs to sacrifice anything, all they have to do is to keep the discussion going until both sides agree that can live with whatever. The result is, obviously, something that both sides can live with. This, in turn, means that both sides agreed there was a specific problem that needed fixing and that both sides have agreed to the solution.

The theory also is that, given that there were only two sides, that each side was involved and both sides will also reflect the will of each side. That's pretty much it. What happened was that the Republicans were the first side to decide that they wouldn't give an inch on ANYTHING! This happened when Newt Gingrich was Speaker of the House and this decision was made under something called "Contract with America". Since that time the Republicans have not been very eager to make any "deals' that involved the Democratic party. It also encouraged anybody that had a problem with their party of choice, and still wanted to vote, became part of the the "Independents".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_with_America

Its also of passing interesting that, as far as I can tell, only the Democrats even have a platform (a list of what they currently stand for) https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-Democratic-Party-Platform.pdf The Republicans, on the other hand, no longer has a Republican Party Platform which means, basically, that nobody really knows what they are for or against.

I think I read that there are now more "independents" than members of one of our political parties. This also indicates that BOTH parties have failed. If this whole thing doesn't destroy the United States then, I believe, BOTH parties need to be replaced with people willing to talk and agree when fixing whatever. I have no idea how that might happen as neither side is ready to do the bidding of the other side and that's all there is. Right now the Republican side has, obviously, decided that isn't ever going to happen, they should be in charge, and are moving in that direction.

I have no idea how to fix this one and, as far as I can tell, nobody else has an answer either.

Yes, figuring out who is going to vote for whom when it comes to Republicans and Democrats is boring. You can take 92% times of however many are affiliated with both major parties; you’ll know within a point or two and the actual numbers of votes each will cast. Now party affiliation is very dynamic and changes constantly. When it comes to independents, that a whole different ball game.

You can take the percentage of independents which lean toward one party or the other using Gallup’s party affiliation leans times 72%. Again, with these two groups you’ll be within a point or two of how they voted. Now pure or true independents with no leans, they’re impossible to figure. Their whims and reasons, wants, whatever why they’ll vote the way they’ll vote is totally impossible to figure out. That is unless one can see or sense the anger building up in them as was the case in 1994, 2010 along with disgust and a bit of anger in 2018. No anger in 2006 the other wave election, just independents becoming very sick and tired of Republican rule, all the wars, along with the recession setting in.. But one knew no lean or true independents would go strongly to the Democrats. 2018 and 2020, they’re vote was one of disgust for Trump. Again, one knew independents would go strongly for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 and for Biden in 2020. They didn’t go strongly for Democratic congressional candidates in 2020 though. Their votes were split right down the middle. Some 7 million independents voted against Trump by casting a vote for Biden, then voted for a Republican congressional candidate. I never seen that coming.

A word of warning for the democrats next year. These independents aren’t angry at Biden nor are they at the democratic controlled congress. They’re frustrated with them. Now that frustration could turn into anger as the months progress. Time will tell. The difference is independents being frustrated at the Democrats could produce a house loss of 10-15 seats. Independents getting angry at the Democrats would produce another wave election, a loss of 35-45 seats in the house and another 4 or 5 in the senate.

According to Gallup, as of 19 Oct 2021 Republicans make up 26% of the electorate, the same for Democrats, 26%, independents come in at 44%. At one time during FDR over 80% of Americans affiliated or associated themselves with the two major parties. During the 1970's that dropped to 70%, The two party affiliation dropped to 60% during Obama and now stands at 52%.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/interactives/party-id-trend/

Many ups and downs, but you can see all of that in the link.