Yes, figuring out who is going to vote for whom when it comes to Republicans and Democrats is boring. You can take 92% times of however many are affiliated with both major parties; you’ll know within a point or two and the actual numbers of votes each will cast. Now party affiliation is very dynamic and changes constantly. When it comes to independents, that a whole different ball game.
You can take the percentage of independents which lean toward one party or the other using Gallup’s party affiliation leans times 72%. Again, with these two groups you’ll be within a point or two of how they voted. Now pure or true independents with no leans, they’re impossible to figure. Their whims and reasons, wants, whatever why they’ll vote the way they’ll vote is totally impossible to figure out. That is unless one can see or sense the anger building up in them as was the case in 1994, 2010 along with disgust and a bit of anger in 2018. No anger in 2006 the other wave election, just independents becoming very sick and tired of Republican rule, all the wars, along with the recession setting in.. But one knew no lean or true independents would go strongly to the Democrats. 2018 and 2020, they’re vote was one of disgust for Trump. Again, one knew independents would go strongly for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 and for Biden in 2020. They didn’t go strongly for Democratic congressional candidates in 2020 though. Their votes were split right down the middle. Some 7 million independents voted against Trump by casting a vote for Biden, then voted for a Republican congressional candidate. I never seen that coming.
A word of warning for the democrats next year. These independents aren’t angry at Biden nor are they at the democratic controlled congress. They’re frustrated with them. Now that frustration could turn into anger as the months progress. Time will tell. The difference is independents being frustrated at the Democrats could produce a house loss of 10-15 seats. Independents getting angry at the Democrats would produce another wave election, a loss of 35-45 seats in the house and another 4 or 5 in the senate.
