Trends on the movement of States: Blue to Red or Red to Blue
There has been movement from 2000-2021 for the states from red to blue or blue to red. Below is the movement based on PVI, Partisan Voting Index along with their number of electoral votes for the 2024 presidential election.
Arizona from an R+6 down to an R+3. Moving blue. 11 electoral votes
Florida from R+1 to a R+3 getting slightly redder. 30 electoral votes
Georgia from a R+10 down to an R+2 Moving blue 16 electoral votes
Michigan from a D+6 to a R+1 Moving Red 15 electoral votes
Nevada from D+3 to even Moving Red 6 electoral votes
North Carolina from an R+13 down to a R+2 moving blue 16 electoral votes
Ohio From an R+4 up to an R+6 Becoming more red 17 electoral votes
Pennsylvania from D+4 to even moving red 19 electoral votes
Texas from an R+20 down to an R+5 moving blue 40 electoral votes
Wisconsin from a D+10 to a R+2 moving red 10 electoral votes
Interesting to note some southern states trending blue, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas with Florida being the exception as it is trending redder. Virginia is already considered a blue state. States from the Midwest, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin are turning red with Ohio getting redder. Out west Nevada is trending red while Arizona is trending blue. If Texas were to turn blue in 2024 along with the other states trending blue, that is 83 electoral votes for the Democrats. If the GOP were to win all the states trending red, their total of electoral votes would be 97.
Nothing is written in stone here. Independents can overcome any PVI a party has in these states listed. I consider all swing states to include Texas and Ohio as one never knows how independents will vote.
