Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

I think the major problem is that people have a very short attention span, so they forget the actions that caused the economic consequences by the time those consequences hit. As soon as the Republicans gave that massive tax cut to the rich, I knew inflation had to be the result. But of course it doesn't show up until the next guy is in office. Likewise, the piss-poor handling of the pandemic by Trump is why we are still in this mess. And of course all those independents blame Biden, even though he's doing everything he can about it. We are all sick and tired of it. But changing to Republican leadership would just make it worse. Maybe much worse, going by the behavior of most Republican governors.

Is it going to be different by November? Certainly! Change is the only constant. More Trumpers will be in prison. Maybe even some politicians who conspired to make Jan 6th happen. More anti-vax and anti-mask voters and influencers will be dead, or converted by near-death experiences. Infections among the vaccinated (most Democrats) will be minor inconveniences. Way fewer elderly Americans will be dying from Covid. Republican efforts to restrict voting may not help them as much as they think, since they will affect many people who usually vote Republican.

No doubt about most Americans have a short attention span or memory. Most are worried about today and don’t care about what happened in the past unless it affected them personally. Part of the problem with 1-6 is perhaps most people equate insurrection with armed insurrection. Nothing to back that up, just a thought that entered my head. No arms or weapons were used that I remember by the Trump crowd. Hence to some, perhaps by a slight majority of Americans, 1-6 gets classified as a riot along the lines of Portland and Minneapolis. Anyway, something that happened almost a year ago, has little staying power among most Americans. Short memory for sure.

I always said this notion that high voter turnout helping the Democrats was an old wife’s tales. Here’ the numbers to prove it. Voter suppression may indeed hurt the Republicans more than the Democrats.

Average voter turnout since 1960 in presidential elections 55%.
2020 62% high Biden winner
2016 55% average, Trump winner
2012 53% low, Obama winner
2008 57% high, Obama winner
2004 56% high, G.W. Bush winner
2000 51% low, G.W. Bush winner
1996 49% low, Bill Clinton winner
1992 55% average, Bill Clinton winner
1988 50% low, G.H.W. Bush winner
1984 53% low, Reagan winner
1980 53% low, Reagan winner
1976 53% low, Carter winner
1972 55% average Nixon winner
1968 61% high Nixon winner
1964 61% high LBJ winner
1960 63% high JFK winner

4 Democratic and 2 Republican winners when there was a high voter turnout. 4 Democratic and 3 Republican winners when the voter turnout was low or below average. 1 Democrat and 2 republican winners when the voter turnout was average. No difference, Now on to the midterms.

Midterm House elections. The average turnout for midterms is 40%
2018 50% high, Democrats gained 44 seats
2014 38% low, Republicans gained 8 seats
2010 42% high, Republicans gained 63 seats
2006 38% low, Democrats gained 33 seats
2002 40% average, Republicans gained 8 seats
1998 37% low, Democrats gained 3 seats
1994 42% high, Republicans gained 54 seats
1990 38% low, Democrats gained 7 seats
1986 38% low, democrats gained 5 seats
1982 43% high, democrats gained 27 seats
1978 39% low, Republicans gained 7 seats
1974 39% low, Democrats gained 39 seats
1970 48% high, Democrats gained 12 seats
1966 47% high, Republicans gained 47 seats
1962 46% high, republicans gained 4 seats

Still no correlation between high and low voter turnout benefiting one or the other party or which party wins the midterms. I see is when the house changed hands, control 1994, 2010 from Democratic to Republican and 2018, Republican to Democrat turnout was high. But in 2006 when the democrats took control of the house with a net gain of 33 seats, turnout was low. Be your own judge.

Simply amazing .... you type like a typical politician .... word salad ... doesn't mean a thing.

I don't care what independents think .... I don't care what Democrats think .... I don't care what Trump supporters think .... but I do want to know what you think .... no polls .... just your personal honest political analysis.


Will the things Republicans are attempting to do, destroy the America the Founders, and my ancestors, fought so hard to create? If not, why not?

Ya know, a lot of people criticized Hillary for depending too much on focus groups.
Being the policy wonk she is, she was known for endless tables and statistics.

I'm with YOU, I don't have the least bit of interest in poring through reams of percentages and tables.
I want to know what the person I am talking to thinks as well.

Trump, he totally disgusts me. My hope is the Atlanta DA brings charges of election interference in Georgia’s election against Trump. That he ends up in jail. What New York does, that’s up to New York. The 1-6 hearings, like many other Americans, 58% to be exact think they’re biased. A stacked deck. Something the Democrats are doing to please their base, a political show, something to gain political advantage. So, like most Americans, I haven’t paid any attention to them.

Destroying our democracy, I believe today’s modern political era is doing just that. That the polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship is doing much more to harm our Representative Republic than Trump or his followers. When a third of all Americans define the number one enemy of this nation as the members other political party. We’re in trouble. When 40% of all Americans, both major parties and different political ideologies say they want or are willing to secede from this nation or support secession from the union if their candidates lose in 2024, we’re in trouble.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixg...ould-we-take-talk-of-us-state-secession/

Trump is indeed the poster child for the destruction of democracy. Be it love for him or hate for him. He isn’t the cause though. That has been building up over several decades. Trump has caused it to pick up speed big time. Doing away with him isn’t going to move us out of our current political era. Another will replace him. We’ll continue to destroy ourselves from within.

Now it’s time for me to get back to the unbiased, by the numbers look at what is happening to influence the upcoming midterms. How all of America feels and thinks, not just one party or segment of our population. All. As for Hillary, she let Trump both out work and out campaign her big time. She had the most inept campaign strategy I have ever seen. She left the impression that the presidency ought to be handed to her, that she didn’t have to work at winning it.

I would remind all that the American electorate is not the brightest group on earth, or even the United States. Over 30%, for instance, actually believe the Trump lies and, buried in that group are also flat out believers in just about any conspiracy that raises its head as well. That just the beginning. On the left they tend not to vote in any election but one that is presidential. They have to be dunned constantly so they will even bother to vote. That is, for instance, what happened in the last election at the cost of something like 30 seats in the house. They do not really give a damn, I think. The remaining Republican voters are worshippers of Trump and actually believe he is a great businessman in spite of the fact that everything he touches turns to sh*t. Daddy gave him about 1/2 a billion dollars which engendered, by Trump no less than 6 bankruptcies whilst he got rid of most of that. That's just for starters.

Its actually pretty interesting. The TV talking heads are all concerned about our 'democracy'. The voters, however, don't seem to get it or give a damn. They are more concerned about important things. They are terribly concerned when they have to buy a loaf of bread for, maybe, 5 cents more, whilst the Republicans are flat out working to nullify all coming votes because they just don't give a damn.

As far as I can tell those that vote left just don't seem to give a damn either.

I remember the good old days when you wrote to your elected and they replied to the point. Now, if you write to them, you get a request for money and little or nothing insofar as what you wrote or complained about. I suspect this has to do with who, exactly, is paying the bills and, for the most part that would be the monied class. I just went to https://www.opensecrets.org/ to see who is supporting who and how much. That's always interesting. This time, however, I went there and the first thing I saw was a request for money. Oh well.....................

We live, I fear, in dangerous times.

That entire paragraph is appalling. The only good that it does, is that it gives insight to how the Right thinks. First off, our country's capitol was attacked by Rightwing 2A extremists - many with military and LEO training - who think the 2020 election was "stolen" from them. It was not. The majority of Americans who voted believe that Donald Trump did not deserve a second term.

As far as the 01/06 Commission, McTurtle nixed a bi-partisan commission.


Agreed. See discussion above this one.

Most of the electorate don’t follow the daily grind of politics. I would wager most don’t pay much if any attention until an election nears. Most of the American people aren’t political junkies like those of us on this site. If they were, C-Span would be the nation’s number one rated network. For most of us, politics takes a back seat to almost everything else going on around us. This is especially true for independents. No reason for them to follow politics closely, they have no stake in the game as they’re not Republicans nor are they Democrats. Republicans and Democrats own the horses, the casual fan just drops by once in a while to watch the race and perhaps make a bet by voting. They’re the casual fans of politics. Kind of like the casual fan of the NFL, no interest until the Super Bowl. Then they become fans for one day, after the game is played, they go back into their non-interested mode until next year’s Super Bowl. Or one can say the next election.

For pdx rick, that 42% fair, 58% biased includes all Americans, the right, the left, the in-betweeners, republicans, democrats, independents. The young and the old, all races, all adults, all educational levels, rural, city, the whole gamut. Not just right wingers.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/565981-58-percent-say-jan-6-commission-is-biased-poll

With 55% of the districts in the House having been redrawn and signed into law, it’s time for an update on the midterms.
Senate and House update 28 Dec 2021

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely, the candidate’s or party’s lead is outside the MOE. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Changes – NH, Hassan up from 5 to 6. Bordering on likely to solid. Georgia, down from 6 to 5, Pennsylvania, with Lt. Governor Fetterman as the Democratic candidate, up from 2 to 3. Ohio has been added, leans Republican.

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +4 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Florida Rubio R – Rubio +6 Republican hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +4 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +6 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +1 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. Democratic candidate +3 Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democratic candidate +2 Democratic gain R 48 D 52

Missouri R Blunt, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. As it stands now, the Democrats have a net gain of 2 seats leaving them in control 52-48.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. As of 29 Dec 2021, 29 states have completed their redistricting which include the 6 states with one lone Representative. 241 districts out of the 435 are completed leaving 184 to go. There’re still are two big states left, New York and Florida. Several medium states which include Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia, Missouri and Washington. The remaining are the smaller states which have less than 10 electoral votes.

Out of the 241 newly drawn districts, there are 18 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 13 Democrats and 5 Republicans. Probable net gain so far for the Republican Party, 3-4 seats. When one takes the generic congressional ballot into consideration. The Republican congressional candidates lead by 2 points, 44-42. Then take the remaining states to be redistricted going by their current drawn district, a gain of 10-15 seats for the Republicans is possible. No red wave, but enough for the Republicans to regain control of the house.

This is all assuming nothing comes of indicting Trump or other GOP politicos for their participation of the 1/6 Insurrection.

Navarro planned with Bannon ‘lining up over 100 congressmen’ to overthrow the election

It's a safe bet that none of those 100 Congressmen were Democrats.