With 55% of the districts in the House having been redrawn and signed into law, it’s time for an update on the midterms.
Senate and House update 28 Dec 2021
Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely, the candidate’s or party’s lead is outside the MOE. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.
Changes – NH, Hassan up from 5 to 6. Bordering on likely to solid. Georgia, down from 6 to 5, Pennsylvania, with Lt. Governor Fetterman as the Democratic candidate, up from 2 to 3. Ohio has been added, leans Republican.
Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +4 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Florida Rubio R – Rubio +6 Republican hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +4 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +6 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +1 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. Democratic candidate +3 Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democratic candidate +2 Democratic gain R 48 D 52
Missouri R Blunt, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. As it stands now, the Democrats have a net gain of 2 seats leaving them in control 52-48.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. As of 29 Dec 2021, 29 states have completed their redistricting which include the 6 states with one lone Representative. 241 districts out of the 435 are completed leaving 184 to go. There’re still are two big states left, New York and Florida. Several medium states which include Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia, Missouri and Washington. The remaining are the smaller states which have less than 10 electoral votes.
Out of the 241 newly drawn districts, there are 18 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 13 Democrats and 5 Republicans. Probable net gain so far for the Republican Party, 3-4 seats. When one takes the generic congressional ballot into consideration. The Republican congressional candidates lead by 2 points, 44-42. Then take the remaining states to be redistricted going by their current drawn district, a gain of 10-15 seats for the Republicans is possible. No red wave, but enough for the Republicans to regain control of the house.
