This forecast is using numbers available today. Numbers for Nov 2022 aren’t available until Nov 2022. So, this is if the election were held today. As new numbers come in, become available, I update this. You should note the changes from the last one. No one can predict or see or know what unforeseen events will happen between today and Nov 2022.
It’s assuming nothing, not in the context of the forecast. Even going by the last paragraph, “Then take the remaining states to be redistricted going by their current drawn district, a gain of 10-15 seats for the Republicans is possible.†First, none of the remaining states will be going by their current districts, hence the word possible at the end. I normally do these monthly. Each month changes are made to reflect all the new data coming in. The final forecast is done on 1 Nov. I enjoy the heck out of doing these, they let me and anyone else who reads or cares, it lets them know where the election stands today. As of the date on the forecast. Everything is dynamic. I suppose a lot of people would say this is all useless since these numbers are as of today and not 11 months from now. However, I like knowing where the election stands today.
Tomorrow, all of the forecast could be turned up on its end. If so, the day after, I would make a new forecast to reflect that.
