I go by the numbers, I let the numbers do the talking, not my heart or how I want an election to turnout. Then when new data, numbers come in, I recalibrate and present a new forecast, trying to keep it up to date as possible. Most political prognosticators are saying the Republicans will gain big, retake both the house and senate. I’m as far as I can determine, the only one today, now, limiting the GOP gain in the house to 10-15 seats and having the Democrats gain 2 in the senate instead of losing the senate. The numbers don’t support a huge red wave today. I also don’t understand why they’re making that prediction without redistricting being completed. Now 6 months from now, those number might indeed support a red wave. Not today.
Virginia and Michigan have completed their new maps and signed them into law. I’m going over the new districts in those states now and will post the results when I finished.
