Even going by the numbers, you do have those “On any given Sunday,†moments in forecasting as in the NFL. No one ever saw the GOP picking up 13 house seats in 2020 while the Democratic Presidential candidate won the popular vote by 7 million plus votes. Only once in our long history prior to 2020 has a presidential candidate who won the popular vote via the presidency lost house seats. You must go back to 1884 with Grover Cleveland. He lost 8 house seats, he also won the presidential popular by only 58,000, not by 7 million plus. The reason, 7 million ticket splitters who voted for Biden. Voted against Trump is probably more to the truth than for Biden, then voted Republican down ballot. Lot’s of egg on the prognosticators faces for their house forecasts to include me. No one ever envisioned 7 million ticket splitters. But in the era of Trump, conventional political wisdom and history goes flying out the window. There was more egg on the prognosticators faces for the senate, Collins won in Maine, Ernst in Iowa, Tillis in North Carolina, all seats that the democratic challenger was predicted to win.
That said, the 2018 midterms, the prognosticators got that one right, 2016, they blew the presidential, 2014 midterms were another correct forecast as was 2012, 2010, 2008 and 2004.
Like you, I’m extremely interested in politics. More from an election prospect than policy. Especially how the numbers can change from day to day, week to week, month to month. How the numbers can favor this party this month and favor the other party the next month. Politics is so dynamic.
