If the election were held today, the Democrats would do quite well vs. historical standards. Limiting the House loses somewhere between 8-15 seats in a president’s first midterm would be considered quite an accomplishment. Gaining 2 seats in the senate, another win. Although losing those 8-15 seats would let the GOP regain control of the House. The historical average is a 26-seat house loss and 3 in the senate. But the trend is going the other way, toward the Republicans. The GOP is now winning the battle for independents. Or perhaps more accurate, the Democrats are losing them, the Republicans are there just there as an alternative.
It isn’t the BBB, most independents don’t care about it. What they do care about is rising prices, inflation. They can’t figure out the Democrats obsession with the BBB and with Trump, while seemingly ignoring rising prices. Biden and the Democrats in congress don’t even want to talk about it. Thus, leaving the impression, the perception that Biden and the Democrats don’t care. Harsh, maybe, but that’s the perception out there in the world of the non-affiliated, non-partisan group of voters, perhaps the nation as a whole. 58% of all Americans say Biden and the Democrats haven’t paid enough attention to this nation’s most important problems.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.htmlWhatever it is, independents who once supported Biden aren’t anymore. Biden received 54% of the independent vote, an average approval from independents through June of 53%. Today only 37% approve of the job Biden is doing. This also boils over to the generic congressional ballot where last May 48% of independents said they’d voted for the Democratic candidate, 38% for the Republican candidate. Today those numbers are almost reversed, 45% for the Republican, 38% for the Democrat.
If I were a Democrat, I’d be hoping that these dissatisfied voters, mainly independents don’t become angry voters. That the difference between a small loss in the midterms and a red wave.
