Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

This forecast is using numbers available today. Numbers for Nov 2022 aren’t available until Nov 2022. So, this is if the election were held today. As new numbers come in, become available, I update this. You should note the changes from the last one. No one can predict or see or know what unforeseen events will happen between today and Nov 2022.

It’s assuming nothing, not in the context of the forecast. Even going by the last paragraph, “Then take the remaining states to be redistricted going by their current drawn district, a gain of 10-15 seats for the Republicans is possible.” First, none of the remaining states will be going by their current districts, hence the word possible at the end. I normally do these monthly. Each month changes are made to reflect all the new data coming in. The final forecast is done on 1 Nov. I enjoy the heck out of doing these, they let me and anyone else who reads or cares, it lets them know where the election stands today. As of the date on the forecast. Everything is dynamic. I suppose a lot of people would say this is all useless since these numbers are as of today and not 11 months from now. However, I like knowing where the election stands today.

Tomorrow, all of the forecast could be turned up on its end. If so, the day after, I would make a new forecast to reflect that.

Hey Pero I for one totally appreciate what you are doing. Some on this board might get annoyed with you thinking you are trying to take one side or the other but I do believe you are just trying to report the numbers you see and attempt make sense out of them. As far as the numbers go.

I was never ever a numbers guy but rather just trying to ascertain and hopefully then figure out (now that is funny) what motivates people to vote or otherwise behave the way they do. I have still not arrived at any conclusions about that…but I still try. I shall let you know when I get it all “figured” out.

I go by the numbers, I let the numbers do the talking, not my heart or how I want an election to turnout. Then when new data, numbers come in, I recalibrate and present a new forecast, trying to keep it up to date as possible. Most political prognosticators are saying the Republicans will gain big, retake both the house and senate. I’m as far as I can determine, the only one today, now, limiting the GOP gain in the house to 10-15 seats and having the Democrats gain 2 in the senate instead of losing the senate. The numbers don’t support a huge red wave today. I also don’t understand why they’re making that prediction without redistricting being completed. Now 6 months from now, those number might indeed support a red wave. Not today.

Virginia and Michigan have completed their new maps and signed them into law. I’m going over the new districts in those states now and will post the results when I finished.

whilst trying to understand politics I spent 10 bucks betting on this or that thing. Took me 2 months to lose my 10 bucks. It was, as far as I am concerned, an educational experience which I have not repeated.
What it taught me is that it was fine to think that this or that political thing was going to do whatever but the simple fact was that I am more wrong than right on the reality of stuff political.

Often, for instance, the Dems will do something that I didn't think was possible. Those on the other side, however, rarely ever seem to let me down.

Still, politics are interesting and, as a wishful thinker, gives me a lot of chances to vent. It comes very close to blah, blah, blah.

Even going by the numbers, you do have those “On any given Sunday,” moments in forecasting as in the NFL. No one ever saw the GOP picking up 13 house seats in 2020 while the Democratic Presidential candidate won the popular vote by 7 million plus votes. Only once in our long history prior to 2020 has a presidential candidate who won the popular vote via the presidency lost house seats. You must go back to 1884 with Grover Cleveland. He lost 8 house seats, he also won the presidential popular by only 58,000, not by 7 million plus. The reason, 7 million ticket splitters who voted for Biden. Voted against Trump is probably more to the truth than for Biden, then voted Republican down ballot. Lot’s of egg on the prognosticators faces for their house forecasts to include me. No one ever envisioned 7 million ticket splitters. But in the era of Trump, conventional political wisdom and history goes flying out the window. There was more egg on the prognosticators faces for the senate, Collins won in Maine, Ernst in Iowa, Tillis in North Carolina, all seats that the democratic challenger was predicted to win.

That said, the 2018 midterms, the prognosticators got that one right, 2016, they blew the presidential, 2014 midterms were another correct forecast as was 2012, 2010, 2008 and 2004.

Like you, I’m extremely interested in politics. More from an election prospect than policy. Especially how the numbers can change from day to day, week to week, month to month. How the numbers can favor this party this month and favor the other party the next month. Politics is so dynamic.

I actually believe that the Dems can actually do well in 2022 if they can bring themselves to not talk everybody to death and, instead, actually do something and then tell everybody about it. Biden, for instance, has actually done quite good, insofar as the economy is concerned - but, never talks about that. I guess, in some places, bragging on success upsets so he is careful not to do that. If, however, the Dems actually do something, or report something that he have done or found, that enhances them they might actually win something.

Right now, however, they continue with simply not talking about what they have done or are doing. The Right, on the other hand, brag all the time. Sometimes even taking credit where there is none. The strange part about that one is that they are believed more often than not.

The Dems, right now, seem to be fixated on the BBB legislation which is not, I think, going to happen unless they do it 1 at a time selling it all the way - the whole bunch of them. The Dems have to present a constant and understandable message and, so far, they just don't seem capable of doing that and its a shame.

Strange times?

If the election were held today, the Democrats would do quite well vs. historical standards. Limiting the House loses somewhere between 8-15 seats in a president’s first midterm would be considered quite an accomplishment. Gaining 2 seats in the senate, another win. Although losing those 8-15 seats would let the GOP regain control of the House. The historical average is a 26-seat house loss and 3 in the senate. But the trend is going the other way, toward the Republicans. The GOP is now winning the battle for independents. Or perhaps more accurate, the Democrats are losing them, the Republicans are there just there as an alternative.

It isn’t the BBB, most independents don’t care about it. What they do care about is rising prices, inflation. They can’t figure out the Democrats obsession with the BBB and with Trump, while seemingly ignoring rising prices. Biden and the Democrats in congress don’t even want to talk about it. Thus, leaving the impression, the perception that Biden and the Democrats don’t care. Harsh, maybe, but that’s the perception out there in the world of the non-affiliated, non-partisan group of voters, perhaps the nation as a whole. 58% of all Americans say Biden and the Democrats haven’t paid enough attention to this nation’s most important problems.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

Whatever it is, independents who once supported Biden aren’t anymore. Biden received 54% of the independent vote, an average approval from independents through June of 53%. Today only 37% approve of the job Biden is doing. This also boils over to the generic congressional ballot where last May 48% of independents said they’d voted for the Democratic candidate, 38% for the Republican candidate. Today those numbers are almost reversed, 45% for the Republican, 38% for the Democrat.

If I were a Democrat, I’d be hoping that these dissatisfied voters, mainly independents don’t become angry voters. That the difference between a small loss in the midterms and a red wave.

Simply amazing.

So you think that criminal prosecutors are biased and therefore you have no use for them. Interesting take. My God man .... a crime was committed against the United States. The Democrats are not doing this to appease any frakking person or partisan constituency. They are doing it because a crime was committed, and the thugs who are responsible for it need to be held accountable. So should I conclude when Trump becomes successful with his next coup attempt, you will proclaim nothing to see here ... I men after all it would be hyper partisan to say anything about it.

by all means throw your hands in the air and hide your head in the sand.

Yes correct. But in this case Democrats (and independent thinkers) are convinced because of the actions taken by Republicans, Trumpists and their enablers are indeed trying to destroy America. You dismiss it because a poll reports both sides say the same thing. Look beyond the results and take a close look at what is happening.

You routinely belittle any mention of insurrection as Democrat political whining, but I have alerted people to the possibility of military takeover of government, to which people said, it can't happen here because it has never happened here. Gee guess what ... there was a plan for 1/6 and now the military has real concerns there may be rogue military units willing to implement another Trump plan for insurrection.

So when Trump anoints himself as president for life after the next insurrection, and you say ... gee I didnt think it could happen here .... I'll say .... Hail Trump .... I told you it was a possibility

So the electorate is stupid. I keep saying it and you keep reporting that is what the polling concludes. I guess they think Pres Biden can fix the prices and everything would be good, or d you reckon any of them have a clue how economies work? What could Trump do? Turns out it wouldn't matter what he could do, because they would believe him if he told them the numbers were but a figments of their imagination ... there is no inflation .... and glory be, they would sing his praises.

At this point as the madman from the mountains, I am hoping for the return of the King. I will sit idly by while he fraks the country into a fascist state, while you say the polls report he is doing a great job.

The listening to the irresistible Siren's Song while adrift in the Sea of Madness

LOL, Okay. Yes, most Americans understand little how the economy works regardless of party or no party. Now it all boils down to the fact that presidents take credit for a good economy, hence they get blamed for when the economy turns sour. There is very little a president or government can do when it comes to the economy. If there was, it stands to reason that we’d have all ups and no downs.

Trump had basically a good economy for his four years and he received high marks for his handling of the economy. Not that he did a darn thing or handled anything. Here it is.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval_economy-6182.html

Here’s Biden’s so far.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_biden_job_approval_economy-7321.html

The media and polls reinforce to one and all that presidents are responsible for how the economy is behaving to go along with presidents taking credit along with the media and people blaming the sitting president when the economy goes south.

Of course, the out of power party always piles it on to whomever is president at the time. Reagan is a prime example. The people elected Reagan to fix the economy, the misery index, but when it wasn’t fixed 2 years into his presidency, 1982, Reagan approval rating dropped to 35%, the GOP lost 26 house seats. Come 1984 the economy was in an upswing, Reagan’s approval rating shot up to 62%, Ronnie stomped Mondale 59-40%, the GOP regained 16 of those lost house seats. Even 26% of Democrats voted for Reagan, an unheard-of high percentage of the opposing party voting for a presidential candidate of the other party. I don’t think that ever happened prior or after Ronnie.

Are they stupid? No. You have a lot of very bright people in that group. Very smart people in their field of endeavor. The intricacies of politics don’t interest them, other things do. You must remember who you’re talking about. They aren’t political junkies, they don’t pay much if any attention to politics, the daily grind. Few people do. Not knowing something doesn’t make you stupid. It just makes you uninformed when it comes to a particular subject.

When it comes to elections, James Carville, Bill Clinton's political advisor said it all, "It's the economy, stupid."