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We agree that if the Republicans regain control of the House, impeachment of Biden will be forthcoming, sooner than later. That Republicans in the senate will vote guilty, Democrats, not Guilty, the Republicans will be nowhere close to the 2/3rds needed to convict and remove.

For impeachment to be successful, I have numbers for you once again. 60% of all Americans must support, favor impeachment and removal which includes 60% of independents and 30% of the president’s party which is being impeached. Only Nixon achieved those type of numbers. Clinton’s and both of Trump’s impeachment didn’t come close to that type of support. Neither will Biden’s. None of these last three had a snowball’s chance in Hades of succeeding. Only Nixon’s was a sure thing. The rest were folly. On a couple of sites, I said as much. Waste of time, energy and money. But with Clinton, Republicans said it was the right thing to do as Democrats said the same about Trump. Neither was interested in success, just scoring political points.

I’d say we Americans are very easily manipulated. Be it in politics or consumers buying something because of an ad on TV, peer pressure and many other reasons. We’re not individual thinkers, more group thinkers as being a social animal, we want, need to belong. Then throw in the fact that if we hear something long enough, we’ll come to believe it.

The subtext of your typing suggests to me you believe Trump's impeachments were just partisan politics, while articles against Pres Biden would be for legitimate reasons and the votes would come down on a partisan basis.

1. Trump abused his office. 2. Trump incited an insurrection. I guess you see those as partisan, baseless allegations. If Ross Perot were president and did those things, I would support impeachment and conviction. If Pres Obama while president did those things, I would have supported impeachment and conviction. There is nothing artisan about those allegations.

Sen Cruz says the House will write up articles for .... get a load of this .... a difference in policy implementation. He couches it in a Constitutional argument, but the reality is policy differences are what make different political parties. Typing about nutty folks. Sen Cruz is one of those. Articles of impeachment over policy differences is partisan.

LOL .... unless I am mistaken only elected senators vote for conviction. The numbers listed are what pundits want you to believe. The reality is those numbers don't mean squat. Try this example, 90% of Americans want laws for universal background checks. So by your belief some pundit knows what they are talking about, we would already have universal background checks. Since we don't let's dispense with the punditry crap.

The reality is if we had politicians who voted their conscience, who were not extorted by their constituents because they want to remain in power, they would have convicted Trump on both impeachment proceedings.

When the next chapter of political profiles on courage is written, we will find the names of Cheney and Kinzinger, who are both willing to suffer for their integrity to do the right thing in the face of a rabid base. Senators don't need a poll of what the citizenry supports to vote their country and the Constitution above their personal and party interest.

The context of me providing the numbers for a success impeachment was just that. Nothing more, nothing less. If you want to read more into that, you’re welcomed to do so. The numbers showed Nixon’s impeachment hadn’t he resigned would have been successful. The numbers also showed Clinton’s and both of Trump’s impeachment would fail. Which is exactly what happened.

If you want senators from the president’s party to vote guilty or for impeachment and removal, you’ll have to get public pressure on them to do so. Without public pressure on them, they stick with party loyalty. You also must have a good portion, not a majority, a third will do of the president’s party thinking he did an egregious act that warrants impeachment. You can ignore this all you want.

But the fact is the party faithful’s first reaction is to rally behind the president of their party. Only after a while if the facts presented as in Nixon’s case, enough of the party faithful believe their president deserves or warrants impeachment, then it will succeed. In Clinton’s and both of Trump’s, you didn’t have this. None of them had a majority of independents convinced that Clinton and both of Trump’s warranted impeachment and removal. Hence failure on these last three.

Now if you want to read more into all of this than there is. You’re free to do so. All I’m saying is Clinton’s, both of Trump’s were doomed to fail due to lack of public support. I realize you think the public in large is stupid. I can’t help that. I do know how the public can influence politicians and how they vote on such matters as impeachment, legislation, nominations, etc. Enough public pressure certainly can overcome party loyalty. The first instinct of an elected official is self-preservation. If his job is in peril, he’ll leave party loyalty at the doorstep.

Senate and House update 7 Jan 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely, the candidate’s or party’s lead is outside the MOE. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Changes – AZ, D Kelly down from 4 to 2, GA, D Warnock, down from 4 to 3, OH, Open, Republican candidate up from 2 to 3, PA, Open, Democratic candidate down from 3 to 2, WI, Democratic candidate down from 2 to 1.

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Florida Rubio R – Rubio +6 Republican hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +3 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +6 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +1 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +3 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. Democratic candidate +2 Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democratic candidate +1 Democratic gain R 48 D 52

Missouri R Blunt, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. As it stands now, the Democrats have a net gain of 2 seats leaving them in control 52-48.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. As of 7 Jan 2022, 32 states have completed their redistricting which includes the 6 states with one lone Representative. 279 districts out of the 435 are completed leaving 156 to go. There’re still are two big states left, New York and Florida. Several medium states which include Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Missouri and Washington. The remaining are the smaller states which have less than 10 electoral votes.

Out of the 279 newly drawn districts, there are 23 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 15 Democrats and 8 Republicans. Safe seats are, 130 Democratic, 126 Republican Probable net gain using only the redrawn districts is a Republican gain of 3-4 seats. When one takes the generic congressional ballot into consideration. The Republican congressional candidates lead by a single point, 43-42. Then take the remaining states to be redistricted going by their current drawn districts, a gain of 7-12 seats for the Republicans is the most probable. No red wave, but enough for the Republicans to regain control of the house.

I think you are ignoring reality and replacing it with polling and punditry.

An example would be Pres Nixon. The elected Republicans concluded that continuation of his presidency would be bad for the party, since it was obvious he abused the office of the presidency.

A counter example would be Trump in either impeachment trial. It was obvious he abused the office in one instance and in the other he incited an insurrection. Both are clear cut cases for conviction and yet most elected Republicans knew THE BASE would primary them and they would probably lose their job. The political reality was and remains, even if Trump admitted he abused the office and admitted he incited an insurrection THE BASE would not care, and they would still hold elected Republicans accountable for their transgression i.e. apostasy toward Trump. This is hardly a case of public resistance, but of cultish extortion.

In ordinary times. These are not ordinary times. THE BASE dictates to elected Republicans, and the words come straight from QANON. Reality no longer matters. That is the world in which we live.

The numbers I gave you, which you don’t understand were numbers or percentages for an impeachment and removal to be successful. I didn’t get into the reason’s whys or wherefores or anything of that ilk. Just plain hard numbers for impeachment and removal to work. You’re delving much deeper into this than what I gave was meant to be.

What I gave you were the numbers, percentages of each, all Americans, Republicans, Democrats, independents when impeachment and removal would be successful. Whether a president deserved to be impeached, removed or not is irrelevant to the numbers that need to be obtain for impeachment and removal to work.

You still don't git it.

Polling is not the same as accumulating data regarding the sun rising in the east every morning.

And further let me remind you of polling for which the public wants legislation and Congress continues to refuse to pass the legislation.

I reckon that is why there are but few Republicans willing to put country ahead of party .... I guess the rest of them take a poll of Republican voters and conclude Trump is a god and they should do what he says

surely we are lost

Republicans: "When we helped pass the voting rights act, it was the racist Democrats who filibustered it because they thought it should be left to the states."

Republicans now: "Filibuster the voting rights act! Its a state's rights issue!"

There are a pile of TV talking heads now suggesting that the Dems start doing just about anything they can think of that would constitute a win for them. The last one I heard was a suggestion that Biden goto Manchin, and find out if there is any legislation he is willing to vote on - ANY!

The answer to that one should be interesting. Then they can ask the same thing of Manchin's female pal as well. One would have thought they had done this already - guess not.

At the least, however, they (and everybody else) will learn just what they can actually do. That would be a lot better than this continuous string of year long failures which sure as hell is not helping the Dems even a little bit. Right now, instead, we continue to be almost entertained by one Democratic failure after another.

With today’s numbers, the democrats aren’t in bad shape for the midterms. If the election were held today, which it isn’t. The numbers say the Dems gain Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the senate with a 50-50 shot at North Carolina. The GOP has one state that’s 50-50 shot for them to gain, Georgia. With Biden’s approval rating as low as it is along with the falling Democratic congressional critters favorable ratings, that is amazing.

The House, the Republicans aren’t a shoe in to gain their 5 seats. Not yet anyway. They are the heavy favorite to do so, perhaps 70-30 in my book. No one else, no pundit, no political prognosticator, forecaster, would give the Dems a 30% chance of retaining the house. The big number is the competitive/switchable seats. Just 22 as of today, 15 Democratic held, 7 Republican held. These are from the 32 states that have completed their redistricting process. There are 18 more states to go. How they’ll draw their maps is anyone’s guess.

There’s something in play here that go beyond the numbers. There’s no way with Biden’s overall approval as low as it is, with the falling democratic controlled congress numbers falling just below the Republican congressional numbers. With over 60% of the people thinking this country is headed in the wrong direction, those numbers should forecast a red wave. Throw out the national numbers, go state by state for the senate and district by district for the house, what emerges is a total surprise. A democratic gain in the senate, perhaps a loss of 5-10 seats in the house. Something is in play that I can’t get my hands on or my mind around it yet.

I’m tempted to call it the Trump factor. But Trump’s favorable/unfavorable are basically even with Biden’s nationwide, all adults. Throw in inflation, rising prices, the major of Americans thinking Biden and the democrats have their priorities all messed up. That they aren’t paying attention to what most Americans view as this nation’s most important problem, what else can it be? Perhaps as we go along, the midterms get closer, the numbers may begin to merge, then again, maybe not. Time will tell.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/other/FavorabilityRatingsPoliticalLeaders.html